Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades: Montreal Canadiens

Vlad Zorila

2022-08-22

For the last 19 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 20th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer/fall. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

GoneKale Clague, William Lagesson, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry, Ryan Poehling, Alexander Romanov

IncomingMadison Bowey, Evgenii Dadonov, Kirby Dach, Mike Matheson, Sean Monahan, Juraj Slafkovsky

Impact Of Changes – Looking at Montreal's offseason moves, it's certainly a puzzling task to determine how these changes will impact their fantasy potential next season. Montreal was the worst team in the league last year and, while it's looking like such teams as the Coyotes or the Blackhawks should beat them to it this year, they're still predicted to end up in the bottom five. Indeed, as much as the HuGo management have emphasized that the Canadiens are going through an "accelerated rebuild" process, even they were mesmerized enough by the seemingly generational draft class of 2023 that they kept their squad quite weak for a second year in a row. Thus, from a fantasy standpoint, there shouldn't be many more expectations this year compared to the last.

What makes this puzzling is the large number of impactful roster moves made during the offseason. Moreover, not only can these moves intrinsically shock the Habs' fantasy potential, but they also cause a ripple effect, as they'll likely influence the production of many other names already on the roster. This may seem like an obvious statement –after all, doesn't any new player on a squad influence his new linemates– but it is especially true with the Habs this year. After a painfully dry first half of the season under Dominique Ducharme's spell, many names in Montreal's lineups had terribly underperformed. While some of them realigned their production towards the end of the season, it still leaves the door open for some possible surges this year.

Ready For Full Time – This section will start with the blatantly obvious. While he was listed as an incoming player since he technically wasn't on the roster last year, the most impactful prospect for Montreal should be Mr. Number-One-Overall, Juraj Slafkovsky. Don't get fooled: he will be playing in the NHL this year. That's what number one selections have always done. Owen Power was a rare exception as he was an unpolished defenseman wanting to pursue the traditional route taken by teenagers who play in the American system. While Slafkovsky may be equally unpolished, he's been playing in one of the top pro leagues in the world for a year now and competing in tournaments with grown-ups. Even though the place is only a 20-minute drive from downtown Montreal, he will probably never set foot in Laval. It remains to be seen whether he'll see top minutes alongside the likes of Suzuki and Caufield, or whether Martin St. Louis will prioritize him playing with veteran linemates to assist his development.

Unless a handful of other moves involving roster forwards will go underway before the season starts, don't expect to see any other prospects to break through the ranks and have any sort of fantasy impact. Indeed, the Habs are stacked with forwards in their salary book currently, leaving very little place for prospects other than Slafkovsky to see regular minutes in the NHL this year. If some moves are indeed made to send some names away, Jesse Ylonen should be the most likely candidate to get a place in the starting lineup, but expect him to act as a backup whenever injuries arise rather than a regular.

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On the defensive side of things, it's a whole other story for Montreal. They have two open spots on the blue line over which Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, Mattias Norlinder and Kaiden Guhle will fight for. Whichever combination of these four names ends up getting the spots doesn't matter so much. They're all kids filled with potential who will get a taste of the big league for the first time in their lives while playing for an offensively limited team likely without seeing any powerplay minutes. It will be interesting to see who gets the jobs, but expectations should remain realistic. These guys should only come up in extra deep leagues.

Fantasy Outlook – Montreal's situation between the posts remains identical to last year, as Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault will share most of the games, considering the most recent news regarding Carey Price's injury. Thus, there shouldn't be any discrepancies in their fantasy outputs either. We're talking about a veteran backup whose prime was six year ago and a 25-year-old whose save percentage in the AHL is below .900. Add a depleted, inexperienced, porous defense in front of them and you'll get a high number of shots, goals against and losses all season long. There may be an argument to pick them in salary cap leagues as they both have very reasonable wages, but, again, there's other value picks in better teams.

The Canadiens will start the season with only four veteran defensemen. Combined, the four of them amount to only two 30+ point seasons. None above 40. It's very hard to predict who will be getting powerplay minutes, but even if one of them ends up becoming a regular quarterback, Montreal finished second-to-last in power-play percentage last year with 13.7 PP%. While there are reasons to believe this number should increase, they're still not likely to be considered a good power-play unit. In other words, avoid Montreal defensemen as much as possible. Matheson may be an okay D3 on a good fantasy squad, but the rest are all clearly D4 and below.

Up front is where things may get interesting for Montreal. Emphasis on "may". Nick Suzuki has become a guaranteed 60-point player, and is likely to still improve year after year. After his breakout year, Cole Caufield should also be able to cross the 60-point mark, as well as the 30-goal one, this season. It's hard to predict Slafkovsky's production, but he's an attractive, elegant pick with tremendous potential. The rest of the squad is a bunch of usual suspects who are unlikely to get more than 45 points. But, here's the interesting part. That could change if two key newcomers can take advantage of the change of scenery and light up Montreal's streets in a fashionable way. Kirby Dach, whom clearly HuGo believe in more than they did in the likes of Frank Nazar, and 27-year-old Sean Monahan who, in a past life, was a point-per-game scorer. Can these two goliaths come and add a needed spark in Montreal's offense? My opinion? No. They should've kept the pick and drafted Nazar. Stick to Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky. Not much else to see here.

Grade – D+ (last year was a B)

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