Ramblings: Marchand’s Return; Top-Line Marchessault; Sharks to Target & More (Aug 24)
Alexander MacLean
2022-08-24
With Paul Stastny signing yesterday, Michael Clifford wrote about both his outlook and that of a few of the remaining UFAs. It got me thinking about whose value in fantasy we may see shift over the course of the rest of the offseason. Be it trades, signings, possible lineup matches, or injury news both positive or negative, there's still lots to shake out ahead of your drafts. Let's try to get ahead of some of it:
I feel like I've discussed the Bruins more than any other team this offseason, but it is for good reason. There's a lot of fantasy discrepancies going on there.
Yesterday we did get some clarity as to what the top-six might look like to start the year.
Not really a surprise, but interesting to see the plan confirmed at this point. That being said, what it looks like for game one of the season is a whole other matter. What might throw the biggest wrench into that lineup? A sudden infusion of a top-line LW available.
That's right. I'm wondering whether Marchand could be in the opening night lineup. Marchand was given a six month timetiable after his surgery in late May, meaning his timeline would bring him to late November for his anticipated return. However, doing a little bit of research, it seems that after four months of rehab following the procedure, the patient can ease back into their usual routine, with it often taking 6+ months for someone to feel back to normal. Marchand may not be back to 100% by opening day, but he may be back and ready on the ice to the point that he sneaks his way into the lineup.
The cap wouldn't be an issue either, and with the East being so competitive, even the early points in October are going to matter a lot. With the Bruins lacking on defence early on due to injuries, Marchand being let back into the lineup early seems like something they might even push for.
At this point, I would be more surprised to see him out past American Thanksgiving than I would be to see him in the lineup for opening day.
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I know not all reading will have an Athletic Subscription, but if you want the full in-depth look at the projected Vegas lineup on night one of the season you can find one take there.
It's tough to put a lot of stock into these kinds of things, but when the coach hints that he is breaking up the Misfit Line, one of the most common trios from the last few years, you listen. Bruce Cassidy apparently doesn't want to keep them apart forever, but it does sound like he wants to experiment and see how the three forwards Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith, can do in other situations. With the other top two forwards on the team being a centre (Jack Eichel) and a right-wing (Mark Stone) then it stands to reason Jonathan Marchessault will have the most to gain with a possible shift to the top line. We have seen Chandler Stephenson thrive in that top line spot as well, but if Marchessault starts out well there (and it's hard to envision anyone not doing well alongside Eichel and Stone) then he may be in line to touch his career high levels around a point-per-game.
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I've mentioned the Sharks' goalies before as well, but I do think that by Christmas (so maybe not the start of the season) at least one of them is playing for another team. Any of them could fit cap-wise in Vegas (a lot of wins), or be young enough to help out in Montreal (a lot of volume), but I wonder if the most likely destination is Philadelphia. The Flyers were banking on Ivan Fedotov coming over from Russia, but as we all know, he was detained there. If he doesn't make it over, then the Flyers are left with the option of running a tandem of Carter Hart and Felix Sandstrom, or searching for external goalie help.
Like with Montreal there would be a lot of volume, though maybe not a lot of wins. However, it's better than the three-headed crease-beast in San Jose, where neither wins or volume will be easy to come by. As James Reimer is the steady presence, and Kappo Kahkonen is the shiny new gem, Adin Hill is likely the first one out the door if the Sharks find a taker.
Sticking with the Sharks, I don't know if you have looked at their forward group lately, but there's not a lot there to get excited about. It's likely going to be mostly a one-line team for the offence, with Logan Couture's second line bringing some scoring, and a fair amount of defensive responsibility to match it. Two thirds of the top line is set between Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, but the right winger there isn't set in stone, and neither are the two wingers on Couture's line. Additionally, the aforementioned trio of forwards will team up with Erik Karlsson on the top power play unit, but there's still one spot to win.
The most likely set to fill out the top-six is William Eklund, Alexander Barabanov, and Kevin Labanc. Labanc has a history of success on the power play, while Eklund may have the highest offensive ceiling of the three. However, the biggest riser might just be Barabanov, who Mike Amato was also mentioning yesterday:
We could see 45 even strength points from him with a couple on the second power play unit, and then the hot hand of Labanc and Eklund are battling it out for the leftover points on PP1. I give the edge to Eklund there though, as Labanc has disappointed aside from one good half-a-season stretch in his career.
One more SJ note, is that I hope you're not all sleeping on 32-year-old Erik Karlsson this season. This is the first year since his last season with Ottawa that Karlsson won't have to share power play duties with Brent Burns. In the last four seasons as they have played together, Karlsson's IPP has ranged from 37-53%, while his final three years in Ottawa he never dipped lower than 62%. More notably though is on the power play (as this was likely more affected by Burns' presence), Karlsson's average PPIPP in his final three years in Ottawa was 76%, while his PPIPP in San Jose was 66%.
All told, if Karlsson gets back to his IPP levels from his Ottawa days, that's dozen points on top of what he was putting up the last couple of years. A 70-point pace is not out of the question as a result, though you can draft/acquire him right now as a 55-point defenceman. The biggest issue is the games played, where he hasn't logged 60 games in a season since departing Ottawa. However, two of those seasons are Covid-shortened ones, so that sounds worse than it is. He's someone whose stock should explode in the first couple of weeks of the season because of the opportunities that everyone just seems to be overlooking right now.
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The Winnipeg Jets have only nine forwards plus Cole Perfetti signed to NHL contracts right now. There are a few players that could get a shot at cracking the lineup, but it seems more likely that there will be an addition or two here, be it a free agent or through a trade. Morgan Barron and Mason Appleton may get some more minutes this year and a little more time up in the lineup, but the key to filling out their secondary scoring may come as one of the better offensive players still on the market. The toolsy Evan Rodrigues just feels like such a good fit here as a third line player that can move up if there are injuries or for when Pierre-Luc Dubois eventually gets traded to the Canadiens. Some secondary scoring would go a long way to making this team a playoff contender again.
While we're talking about secondary scoring, is there a chance that the Jets check in on Phil Kessel? It can't just be me that remembers an old piece of SportsCentre lore, and wants to see Kessel in a Jets jersey just for the Thrill of it:
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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!