Fantasy drafting has started, particularly those in keeper leagues or playing best ball formats, which means fantasy hockey season is in full swing. Most drafts won't start until next month but there's no reason to not get a good head start. With that in mind, be sure to purchase your copy of the 2022 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide. It has everything readers need to get a good footing for their draft(s) and it will be updated all through training camp. Help support what we do buy picking up a copy of the Guide today!

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Once upon a time, Anthony Mantha was one of the more heralded Wingers Of The Fantasy Future that we had in the NHL. From 2017-2020, his age-23 through age-25 seasons, he averaged 28 goals, 227 shots, and 89 hits every 82 games. This was for a very downtrodden Detroit franchise that was emerging from the Datsyuk/Zetterberg era and rebuilding (poorly).

Fast forward a couple years and after a down season split between Detroit and Washington, followed by an injury-plagued 2021-22 campaign, and it seems like all the hype is gone. There is still a lot to like here so let's dig into what we might be able to expect from Mantha this coming season. As usual, data will be taken from our own from Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick, with other sources credited as we go along.

To begin, we should dispel the notion that Mantha was any sort of product of playing with Dylan Larkin back in his Detroit days. Evolving Hockey has Mantha as a significant impact player at both ends of the ice for that three-year breakout stretch he had:

His impact on expected goals in that stretch was similar to Sean Couturier's, for reference. If we want to compare impact on actual goals, the team scored similarly when Larkin was without Mantha was Mantha was without Larkin, with better defence. He looked like he was going to be a force for years to come.

What is important about Mantha's game is his flexibility. There are some players who play mostly off the rush or mostly off the cycle. Mantha is able to do both, as evidenced by his COVID 2021 season where game tracker Corey Sznajder compiled what he did on the ice for both Detroit and Washington:

The shot assists (passes leading to shots) aren't strong here but that was a bit of an aberration for him. He had been a good playmaker for his Detroit career, he just didn't have top-end goal scorers to skate with. Piling up goals really aren't calling cards for Larkin or Tyler Bertuzzi.

When looking at his 37-game season in 2021-22, what sticks out immediately is his power-play production. In that three-year stretch mentioned earlier with the Red Wings, he averaged nearly 10 PP goals every 82 games; he had precisely zero this past campaign. He was the sometimes-fourth forward, sometimes-not as Evgeny Kuznetsov, a distant second in PPTOI per game behind Alex Ovechkin, still earned more than a minute and a half per game over what Mantha brought. Then the shoulder surgery came, he missed a few months, and was an afterthought with the power play when he returned. Ovechkin will always be the focal point of Washington's attack with the man advantage, but not even getting PP1 ice time puts a hard cap on Mantha's upside.

Things could be very different in 2022-23. Nicklas Backstrom may be out all season with hip surgery and Tom Wilson could miss 2-3 months at the start of the season because of knee surgery. Those are two guys who would likely both be ahead of Mantha on the PP depth chart if they were healthy. It removes obstacles for Mantha finally getting a consistent top power-play role.

Being a left shot, and in his minimal PP time, Mantha was often used on the opposite circle from Ovechkin, putting him in a one-time position. That position from Mantha is also one that was frequented by Backstrom, though they obviously bring different play styles to that power play. The other guy that could threaten for PP1 time is Dylan Strome, but he usually played a down-low/net-front position for Chicago. Those are roles already spoken for from Kuznetsov and Oshie. The team can move things around, and Kuznetsov could play the Backstrom spot and move Strome down low, and we may see that at some point. However, I do agree with our Fantasy Guide that Mantha will start over Strome on the top PP unit. Washington still uses their second unit a fair bit – they just hold Ovechkin over – and they need a playmaker there, too. That fits Strome's profile and gives them that puck-moving forward they require on PP2.

That is why I'm very bullish on Mantha this year. Oshie has averaged 19 PPPs/82 games over the last three years. Even Wilson managed double-digit PPPs in 2021-22, a guy much less gifted offensively than Mantha. He won't be the primary option, but he should get much more PPTOI than he typically has in Washington. That is a huge boost to his fantasy profile and should help see him return to significant fantasy relevance.

It all comes down to health, too. He has averaged 57 games played/82 team games over his last four seasons. If that shoulder, or anything else, starts to bug him, there could be another lost season here. But the bet should be he'll have a depressed ADP and the hope he's healthy. If he is, he can threaten both 30 goals and 60 points, assuming a PP1 role. With very good peripherals, he could end up one of the top value wingers drafted outside the top-100 players.

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One interesting competition we have that will have fantasy implications is that battle between Dylan Dozens and Casey Mittelstadt for the second-line centre role in Buffalo. The team is rebuilding nicely but still does not have the depth to have a scoring third line. The top-4 winger mix will be Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, Alex Tuch, and (likely) Jack Quinn. Those are four talented scoring wingers. After that, we're looking at Peyton Krebs, Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Asplund, and so on. Not bad players by any stretch, but not the top-end scorers further up the lineup.

Down the stretch last year, Buffalo used Mittelstadt often with the likes of Tuch and Olofsson on that second line while Cozens was on the third line with the Asplunds and Okposos of the world. When looking at what they did through the whole season, though, it's hard not to give Cozens a lot of credit. Per the tracking data mentioned earlier, he was the only Buffalo forward to be above average in scoring chances taken and scoring chances generated for teammates:

For names across the league that had a similar scoring chance profile, we're talking guys like Alex DeBrincat, Blake Wheeler, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Matt Duchene. Add in a hefty amount of controlled zone entries – same range as Jack Hughes and Patrick Kane – and it looks like Cozens turned a corner offensively for the Sabres.

It's a question of what the team wants from their second and third lines. Perhaps they want to start using Cozens in a shutdown-type role with Okposo, Asplund, or Vinnie Hinostroza, hoping Mittelstadt can flourish with Olofsson or Tuch. That had been the fourth line's role often last year, but they may not continue that trend with Cody Eakin gone. Someone could need to step into that role and it may be Cozens.

I hope it's not. Cozens looked like the better centre last year and is three years younger. I get that they're trying to get the best out of Mittelstadt that they can but it shouldn't come at the cost of a better player playing with better players. My guess is we see Cozens start on the third line and he eventually just wins out a second-line role. In that instance, there's not much to get concerned about in most fantasy drafts, but watching his lineup slotting and the waiver wire as the season progresses is important. He won't reach highs just yet as he's likely not a PP1 option, but the skill is there to eventually bully his way to a much better offensive role.

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Let's talk about another pair of players, only this time from different teams, but both likely to end up on the second line for their respective franchises. They are both young players that had a lot of promise and hype when they were drafted, but as things often go, the excitement has subsided since their drafting. They are Marco Rossi from Minnesota and Cole Perfetti up in Winnipeg.

One of the reasons, I have to imagine, that the Wild were fine with eating those huge cap hits from the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter was having Rossi and Matt Boldy on the way. Boldy is an RFA after the 2022-23 season but Rossi will be on his ELC throughout those high buyout cap hits. Having an impact player on an ELC can soften a bit of that blow.

It hasn't been smooth sailing for Rossi, though. His health problems resulting from a COVID infection caused him to miss the entire COVID 2021 season, so his 2021-22 season was his first since being drafted. He had a very good year in the AHL, posting 53 points in 63 games, averaging 2.5 shots per game. For a guy that lost a lot of development time to a serious health issue, it really was a good debut.

If he can perform well in training camp, the second-line centre spot is available to him. It had been Frederick Gaudreau's spot but with Ryan Hartman and Joel Eriksson Ek around, it's either the second or fourth line for Rossi. I cannot imagine that if he makes the NHL roster out of camp that Rossi gets sent to the bottom trio. That would move Gaudreau down, and leave Rossi to develop some chemistry with Boldy.

The bigger question is whether he can earn some top PP time. Minnesota used a lot of different combinations last year with the man advantage, particularly as the season wore on; Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov were the staples, but Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy, Hartman, and Eriksson Ek were all rotated in. Not that Rossi will be given a top PP role, but his playmaking could be something they're interested in. It's likely something he'd earn as the season wore on, and not out of the gate, so be careful about projection is PP slotting. All the same, a second-line role with Boldy, combined with a half-season of PP1 time, could see him threaten 50 points. He is an intriguing player to monitor once the puck drops on the season.

For Perfetti, it's all a question of where he slots at even strength. The second-line right wing spot is there for the taking, but if they want to leave him at centre, he'll be on the third line. We should note that he almost exclusively played the wing in his brief 18-game debut last year and that would seem to put him as an option to play with Pierre-Luc Dubois and whomever ends up on the other wing.

That role makes the most sense to me. If they decide to move him to the third line, he'll be stuck with the likes of Jansen Harkins, Mason Appleton, and Adam Lowry. It would just be a complete mis-use of his offensive skillset.

Unlike Rossi, though, there may not be a PP role for him here without an injury. The triumvirate of Wheeler/Scheifele/Connor are locks with Dubois almost certainly being the fourth. However, all it does take is one injury and Perfetti would have a chance at some top PPTOI, unless Nikolaj Ehlers finally gets the time he's deserved for years now. The flipside is that one of those injuries could come at the expense of one of his 5-on-5 line mates and that is a balance we'd need to find.

I would also like to remind everyone that Dubois only got a one-year deal in the offseason and if the Jets don't have a playoff year, he could be traded for a big haul at any point of the season. At that point, Perfetti could be a lock on both the second line and top PP unit. This is another guy I don't have a lot of interest in drafting in September in most leagues, but who could have a lot more value as the season wears on.

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Vegas signed Phil Kessel to a one-year deal yesterday. I wrote about that here.