Frozen Tool Forensics: Players on the Breakout Threshold

Chris Kane

2022-09-02

As with the faceoff article posted a few weeks ago, I like to occasionally check in on stats, and therefore players, that are a bit more on the peripheral (see what I did there?) Categories like hits and blocks are not as exciting as points and shots, so they definitely don't get as much air time in this column (or in other articles in general). But as many leagues incorporate them, they are crucial to attend to. Today we are going to focus on defensemen.

On the Reports page we have a conveniently titled Multi-Category report that provides some basic scoring stats as well as penalty minutes, hits, and blocks. The report also has some combined columns with hits and blocks, and then hits plus blocks plus shots. It further breaks down these stats on a per-game basis. I am on record as not being a big fan of penalty minutes as a positive fantasy stat, so we won't really touch on them in this article. To get our data I have pulled the report for the 2021-22 season, exported so I could do a little rearranging and focus on a few columns.

We can obviously use this report to get top performers in some of these categories, and we will start there below. I am sorting by per game numbers because I want to account for differences in games played, but I am also putting in a games-played threshold so not getting really small sample sizes for random players.

So just quickly, here are some big performers in hits and blocks.

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GSOGHitsBlocks
RADKO GUDASDFLA770.211.34.611.53
LUKE SCHENNDVAN660.261.184.141.45
RASMUS RISTOLAINENDPHI660.241.473.481.89
NamePosTeamGPPTS/GSOGHitsBlocks
CONNOR MURPHYDCHI570.181.252.282.63
BRAYDEN MCNABBDVGK690.261.232.232.59
CALVIN DE HAAND 690.121.552.122.49

There is nothing terribly surprising on this list. Most folks who have been in these leagues are familiar with these names. There also isn't anything terribly exciting about these names. Some are rostered throughout the season because of their high contribution in a single area, but most also drag down managers' other categories because they aren't producing enough in other categories.

As a bit of short-hand, I will also sometimes use the combined hits and blocks column as it highlights players who excel in one area, and players who are strong performers in both.

I will certainly rotate through these kinds of players throughout the season depending on what I need at any given point, but the real value to me comes from players who perform well in the above categories, but also put shots on goal. In addition to that being a category in most leagues, it also means they are more involved on the offensive side of the ice so often have a higher chance of points.

This brings us to our second combined column of hits, blocks, and shots

NamePosTeamGPPTS/GSOGHitsBlocksHIT+BKSSOG+HIT+BKS
DARNELL NURSEDEDM710.52.862.761.864.627.48
RADKO GUDASDFLA770.211.34.611.536.147.44
JACOB TROUBADNYR810.492.522.562.194.747.26
RASMUS RISTOLAINENDPHI660.241.473.481.895.386.85
LUKE SCHENNDVAN660.261.184.141.455.596.77

There are some familiar names here. Radko Gudas is here because he hits a ton. Same with Luke Schenn and Rasmus Ristolainen (though he also has decent block numbers). We do have some new players too though who are a little more well-rounded.

This list is filled with players that can provide a ton of peripheral value per game. Essentially as a manager you know you are going to be getting good value, though just picking from this list doesn't necessarily guarantee it will be in your ideal category distribution.

When drafting I usually want to try and find the most elite across the board and make sure I grab at least one to give me a good baseline. Then throughout the season, I can fill in as needed as players are added and dropped. The above combined category is helpful for easily identifying value, but I also like to create my own multi-cat tier of players using filters.

You can change these criteria based on your league, but if I set the criteria as averaging two hits per game, 1.5 blocks per game, and 1.75 shots per game I get a pretty excellent tier of choices.

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NamePosTeamGPPTS/GSOGHitsBlocksHIT+BKSSOG+HIT+BKS
JACOB TROUBADNYR810.492.522.562.194.747.26
MACKENZIE WEEGARDCGY800.552.542.241.954.196.73
DARNELL NURSEDEDM710.52.862.761.864.627.48
BEN CHIAROTDDET740.351.932.121.763.885.81
ERIK JOHNSONDCOL770.321.812.141.753.95.7
JEFF PETRYDPIT680.41.822.061.723.785.6
KRIS LETANGDPIT780.872.742.191.563.766.5

Obviously every player on this list has strengths and weaknesses. Kris Letang has the lowest block rate, but the highest point pace, Ben Chiarot and Erik Johnson are strong peripheral contributors, but are on the low end of point production. I am loving the seasons that Jacob Trouba, Mackenzie Weegar and Darnell Nurse put together last year.

For next season we do have a few question marks. Weegar, Ben Chiarot, and Jeff Petry might be wild cards, as we don't know exactly what their new environments will mean for their deployment. Usually these kinds of numbers are fairly repeatable, but big changes in ice time, or participation on the penalty kill for example can play a factor. On the other side Letang, Nurse and Trouba have been putting up these strong numbers for several seasons so are definitely good bets to continue.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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