One of the things I’ve often been curious about is in regards to how long fantasy general managers will continue drafting a player believing this will be that player’s bounce-back year.

I am guilty of this. In my points-only keeper league, I drafted Ryan Kesler three years in a row, always in the last round with my last pick, hoping he would bounce back. He did in two of those years when he posted back-to-back seasons of 50-plus points with the Ducks.

I wonder how many of us feel an affinity to those players we’ve rostered when that player struggled. How big does emotion play a role in our drafting? Does that emotional attachment make us more likely to draft that player again the next season? Or do we remember the pain of the struggle and are less likely to draft them, even though signs point to a bounce-back campaign?

Below are 10 players who are candidates to have a bounce-back season.

10. Brendan Gallagher

While many Habs players saw a massive improvement in production last season when Marty St. Louis took over the head coaching duties from Dominique Ducharme, Gallagher had a more modest improvement despite less ice time.

Ducharme: 27 games, four goals, 10 points, minus-nine, 28 PIM, three power-play points, 65 shots, 15:20 per night

St. Louis: 29 games, three goals, 14 points, plus-two, 41 PIM, four power-play points, 77 shots, 14:43 per night

The biggest takeaway from Gallagher’s struggles last year was his shooting percentage. He finished with a 4.9 per cent shooting percentage, a major drop from the previous season of 13.2 per cent and the lowest of his career. He still needs to stay healthy, but it wouldn’t be unthinkable for Gallagher to get back to a 20-goal, 50-point season this year.

9. Elvis Merzlikins

With a 27-23-7 record last year, Merzlikins picked up points in the majority of his games, but many of his underlying numbers weren’t great. He can be forgiven for his tough season, as it couldn’t have been easy to play so soon after the loss of Matiss Kivlenieks, his best friend and fellow Latvian goaltender in the Blue Jackets organization. Columbus has worked to make its team better this season, which will have a big impact on their netminders. Having Johnny Gaudreau will create more offense, which will lead to more wins for Merzlikins.

8. William Karlsson

Last year was easily Karlsson’s worst as a Golden Knight, as he put up only 12 goals and 35 points in 67 games. His shooting percentage was 8.9 per cent, the first time he’s been below double digits while with the Golden Knights, and a significant drop below his 15.9 per cent average with Vegas heading into the season. Now with Max Pacioretty gone to Carolina, maybe Karlsson can steal his spot on the top power-play unit. Last year, Karlsson had only three power-play points. A move to double-digits in that category will help immensely in getting Karlsson back to a 55-point pace.

7. Neal Pionk

In 2019-20, Pionk had 45 points in 72 games, a 52-point pace while on the top power-play unit. The following year, he was taken off the top unit for a significant chunk of the season but still had 32 points in 54 games, a 49-point pace. Last year, that dropped to 34 points in 77 games (a 36-point pace) while he and Josh Morrissey took turns on the top unit. Even with a setback in production, he’s still great in multicat leagues (his per-game averages last year were 1.82 shots, 2.4 hits and 1.18 blocked shots). It’s still too early to tell what new head coach Rick Bowness will do with the power play, but Pionk should be able to get back to a 40-point pace even without it.

6. Jeff Petry

Petry’s poor season last year was overblown as many fantasy hockey general managers became convinced that last year’s Petry is his new normal. He’s still great in many leagues, as he contributes in hits and blocked shots. Now in Pittsburgh, he’s on a much better offensive team than Montreal was a year ago. Even though he’s not on the top power-play unit, Petry’s even-strength production should be seeing a major uptick, and he should be getting back up to a 45-point pace again this season.

5. Martin Necas

In the COVID-shortened season, Necas finished with an 82-game pace of 63 points (and he was flirting with 70 until the last few weeks of the season). Last year, he dropped to a 42-point pace. One reason may be how he bounced around the lineup. According to Natural Stat Trick, Vincent Trocheck was the only player that lined up alongside Necas for at least 50 per cent of Necas’ shifts (and only for 53 per cent of the time). The next most frequent linemate was Andrei Svechnikov at 31 per cent and Sebastian Aho at 18 per cent. It makes it hard to find chemistry that way. The injury to Max Pacioretty should help ensure that Necas can get some top-six minutes, and hopefully, some more frequent linemates.

4. Marc-Andre Fleury

Last year was a year that Fleury owners would like to forget. He struggled in Chicago, and while his numbers with the Wild weren’t that great either, he did have a 9-2 record with Minnesota. In the offseason, the Wild got rid of Cam Talbot, the only goalie that could have pushed Fleury into a backup role. A full year in Minnesota could push Fleury back to the 30-win mark. It will also help that he has extra time to get used to the Wild’s system.

3. Matt Murray

At this stage, the only thing that can stop Murray from being one of the top 10 netminders fantasy-wise is his health. We’ve seen the Leafs do great things with slightly above-average goalies before (last year’s Jack Campbell being the best example). The Leafs are so good at scoring that their goalie can have a goals against average of 3.33 and still win the majority of their games. Murray played better last year than his numbers show, and even if he is limited to 50 games, that should be good enough for 35 wins.

2. Sean Couturier

Sure, injuries played a role in Couturier’s awful 2021-22 season, but he wasn’t that effective while in the lineup. In the four seasons from 2017-18 to 2020-21, Couturier had an 82-point pace range of 70 to 78 points. That’s pretty solid consistency. Last year, he had 17 points in 29 games, a 48-point pace. He can’t get any worse, and new head coach John Tortorella will lean on Couturier, who may now be the team’s best offensive and defensive player. Expect plenty of power-play time and plenty of opportunity for Couturier this season.

1. Dougie Hamilton

Last year started great for Hamilton, with six points in his first eight games and 20 in his first 29. Then he suffered a broken jaw that forced him out of the lineup for about seven weeks. When he returned to game action, he didn’t have close to the same type of production, with 10 points in his last 33 games. On the season, he finished with a 40-point pace. After he had an 82-game point pace of 63 and 70 points in each of his previous two seasons, that’s a significant drop in production. The Devils have upgraded their lineup this offseason, and with Jack Hughes on the periphery of becoming elite, that will help Hamilton soar back to a 60-point pace.