Eastern Edge: Goaltending Tiers from Shesterkin to Elliott

Brennan Des

2022-09-06

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll divide Eastern Conference goaltenders into tiers based on their fantasy hockey value. Keep in mind, there's a fair bit of subjectivity that goes into these tiers, so think of them more as a guide for your own thinking than rigid rankings that you should stick to.

Tier 1

Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers) – Last year, Shesterkin had one of the greatest seasons we've ever seen from a goaltender. He posted a league-best .935 save percentage and 2.07 GAA, winning 36 of his 52 starts. He's an elite goalie on a very strong Rangers team. I think you can justify drafting him ahead of Vasilevskiy this year.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Consistently elite goalie on a consistently elite team. When it comes to fantasy hockey, I would personally use a first-round pick on a forward because their output tends to be more predictable year-to-year than goaltenders. However, Vasilevskiy has been the closest thing to a 'reliable' fantasy hockey netminder that we've seen in recent years.

Tier 2

Frederik Andersen (Carolina Hurricanes) – There's certainly an argument for Andersen to be in tier one. He's a good goalie, who posted outstanding numbers last year, and benefits from playing behind a strong team. However, knee injuries have caused him to miss significant time in each of the last two seasons. In the past year, knee injuries have derailed the careers of two formerly elite goalies in Ben Bishop and Carey Price. Now, I know everyone's situation is different, and knee injuries come in different forms, but knee mobility is incredibly important to play in net effectively. Andersen deserves to be near the top of this list, but injury concerns prevent me from placing him any higher.

Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders) – After dominating the KHL and playing well in his first (condensed) season of NHL action, Sorokin used his second year in the NHL to prove he's one of the league's top goaltenders. Among goalies who saw at least 10 starts, Sorokin's .925 save percentage (52 games) was beaten by only Igor Shesterkin (.935). The Islanders parting ways with coach Barry Trotz and his elite defensive structure may make Sorokin's life more difficult this season. However, I think he has the individual talent to rise above that challenge.

Tristan Jarry (Pittsburgh Penguins) – Last season, Jarry showed he could carry the workload of a starting goaltender, winning 34 of his 58 starts while posting a 2.42 GAA and .919 save percentage. As a good goaltender seeing a high volume of starts behind a strong roster, Jarry projects to be a strong option in fantasy leagues this year.

Tier 3

Elvis Merzlikins (Columbus Blue Jackets) – I see Merzlikins as a good goaltender whose individual numbers have been hindered by the team in front of him. Fortunately, that team got a whole lot better following the signing of superstar winger Johnny Gaudreau. With the Jackets set to take a step forward this year, I think Merzlikins is set to rise up the fantasy hockey rankings.

Darcy Kuemper (Washington Capitals) – Because of Colorado's star-studded roster, Kuemper won't get much credit for backstopping the Avalanche through a strong regular season and incredible playoff run that ended with them hoisting the Stanley Cup. Much of his success last year will be attributed to the elite team he played behind, as people often forget that Kuemper was one of the league's best goalies while playing for the Arizona Coyotes in recent years. Through the 2018-19 and 2019-20 campaigns, Kuemper posted a .926 save percentage and 2.29 GAA over 84 appearances with Arizona. He doesn't need an elite team in front of him to succeed. I'm cautiously optimistic about Kuemper's fantasy outlook this year because I see him as a good goaltender on a good team, who should see a high volume of starts.

Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida Panthers) – After two lacklustre seasons in the Sunshine State, Bobrovsky finally finished with decent overall numbers in year three with the Panthers. The problem is last year's numbers are inflated by a super-hot start. After posting a .942 save percentage and 1.78 GAA in his first 10 games, he registered an underwhelming .906 save percentage and 2.87 GAA over his next 44 appearances. Florida lost an elite defenseman during the offseason as Mackenzie Weegar was shipped to Calgary, so Bobrovsky's job will be even more difficult this year than it was last year. He's ranked this high because his contract ensures him a starting role behind a strong team, which should result in a lot of wins. However, if peripheral stats like save percentage and goals against average are more important than wins in your league, there's a solid argument for placing Bob in a lower tier.

Tier 4

Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins) – I'm on the fence about this one. If the Bruins were going into the 2022-2023 campaign with a healthy roster, I'd consider placing Swayman in a higher tier. However, the team will be without two elite players for at least a month, as Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand are recovering from offseason surgery. A goaltender's numbers are largely a product of the team in front of them, so playing behind a depleted roster could hurt Swayman early on. Now, it may only be 10-15 games that the Bruins end up playing without their top winger and top defenseman. Those games will be split somewhat evenly between Swayman and Linus Ullmark, so in the grand scheme of things, maybe Marchand and McAvoy's absences won't have a huge effect on Swayman. However, that brings us to another reason why Swayman isn't ranked in a higher tier – he has to share the net with Ullmark. Because of this, he probably won't see the high volume of starts that the goalies ranked ahead of him will. Fewer starts mean less opportunity to have an impact on your fantasy roster. 

Linus Ullmark (Boston Bruins) – Much of what I said about Swayman can also be applied to Ullmark. Both of Boston's netminders put up similar numbers last year. Although Ullmark outperformed Swayman down the final stretch of the regular season, Swayman outplayed Ullmark in the playoffs. Ullmark's contract ensures he'll see a significant number of starts this year, but we'll probably see both goalies share the net as they did last season.

Matt Murray (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Although he's had a few strong stretches, Murray's overall numbers reflect how he's struggled over the past few seasons. He'll benefit from playing behind one of the league's best rosters this year, but it's hard to say whether that insulation will be enough for him to put together a bounce back performance. Concerns are magnified because of his injury history, and the fact that Toronto also signed Ilya Samsonov, who has potential to outperform Murray and steal the starting role. The fact that Murray is signed for one more year than Samsonov, and is getting paid more than his Russian counterpart, would indicate that the Leafs are currently more invested in Murray, so he should begin the year in a starting role. With that being said, the Leafs are at a stage where winning is a priority, and it doesn't matter who's getting the job done. If Murray falters, I don't think they'd hesitate to give Samsonov more starts. 

Anton Forsberg (Ottawa Senators) – The Swedish netminder quietly put together a strong 2021-2022 campaign – posting a 22-17-4 record, 2.82 GAA and .917 save percentage. He did it behind a Sens roster that wasn't as good back then, as it is expected to be this year. He's on contract for three more years while fellow Sens' goaltender Cam Talbot is only signed for this season. In other words, since the team is currently more committed to him than they are to Talbot, he won't be limited to a backup role if he plays like the better goalie. I think Forsberg has underrated fantasy upside as a good goaltender on a good team, but that upside is limited because he'll probably share the net with Talbot. 

Tier 5

Spencer Knight (Florida Panthers) – Good young goalie on a good team, but probably won't see a high volume of starts this year because of Bob's massive contract.

Cam TalbotHas been a solid fantasy asset over the past few years and should see a significant number of starts behind a strong Sens team that made some big improvements during the offseason. I think Forsberg is a threat to steal the starting gig, which is why I ranked Talbot lower than others might have.

Ville Husso (Detroit Red Wings) – Last season was Husso's first opportunity in a prominent role and he made the most of it, registering a .919 save percentage and 2.56 GAA over 40 appearances. He posted those numbers behind a very good team in St. Louis, and although his new team in Detroit is on the rise, I think it's fair to say the roster he's playing behind this season is not as good as the one he played behind last year. 

Vitek Vanecek (New Jersey Devils) – As the only Devils' goalie on contract past this season, I'd say Vanecek has the inside lane to a starting role in New Jersey. It's a good spot to be in as the Devils are an up-and-coming team looking to take another step forward this year. With that being said, his 2.68 GAA and .908 save percentage through 79 games in Washington isn't anything to write home about. I think he'll face a high level of competition from Mackenzie Blackwood this year, and I think Blackwood could run away with the starting role.

Antti Raanta (Carolina Hurricanes) – Has potential to be valuable if Andersen misses time with injury. Then again, Raanta has also been injured frequently throughout his career.

Ilya Samsonov (Toronto Maple Leafs) – I'd classify Samsonov as a slightly safer option than Murray (i.e., higher floor but lower ceiling). I'd say he has less fantasy upside than Murray because he's more likely to start the season in a backup role as a result of his smaller contract.

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Jake Allen (Montreal Canadiens) – A good goalie who should see a high volume of starts this year. Although the Habs are expected to be bad this year, I don't think they'll end up being as horrible as they were last season. 

Tier 6

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Buffalo Sabres) – They're in a tough division, but the Sabres have potential to surprise a lot of people this year. I think UPL is the best goaltender Buffalo will enter the season with (i.e., better than Anderson and Comrie), but waivers/contract situations may prevent him from playing a prominent role this year.

Mackenzie Blackwood (New Jersey Devils) – Injuries and COVID derailed a promising start to his career, but I think he'll rebound this year, and will benefit from playing behind an up-and-coming Devils team. I would've ranked him higher, but I'm concerned he won't see a high volume of starts since the Devils signed Vanecek to a three-year deal.

Semyon Varlamov (New York Islanders) – The chasm between Sorokin's ability and Varlamov's ability became obvious last year. After the Islanders missed the playoffs last season, I think there's a little more pressure to play the better netminder and qualify for the postseason this year. With coach Barry Trotz no longer behind the bench, the insulation that Trotz's defensive systems gave Varlamov in recent years may not be as effective this year. Unlike Sorokin, I don't think Varlamov has the individual talent to mask a downgrade in defensive play. The fact that Varlamov is 34 and has a lengthy injury history makes me even more concerned about his fantasy outlook.

Carter Hart (Philadelphia Flyers) – A promising young goaltender who should see a high volume of starts, but that's almost a bad thing when you consider the team in front of him. Although Hart still has great potential, the Flyers' roster is so underwhelming that I can't rank him any higher.

Alex Nedeljkovic (Detroit Red Wings) – Struggled in his first year with the Red Wings but is still developing and getting better – as is the team in front of him. His spot in this tier is based on the assumption that Husso is Detroit's starter, although Nedeljkovic certainly has the talent to earn more starts than your average backup.

Tier 7

In this tier we have a few backup goaltenders on good teams, whose potential is limited because they're stuck behind more established starters. These backups include Elliot, Lindgren, DeSmith and Halak. I do want to highlight Lindgren as someone who could move up a few tiers if Kuemper misses time this year. This tier also features Eric Comrie, who has limited NHL experience but will have a shot at a starting role for an up-and-coming Sabres team.

Brian Elliot (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Charlie Lindgren (Washington Capitals)

Casey DeSmith (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Jaroslav Halak (New York Rangers)

Eric Comrie (Buffalo Sabres)

Tier 8

Just do me a favour and don't roster these guys on your fantasy team, okay? Thank you. More importantly, when one of these guys inevitably has an insane performance this year, please don't remind me that I classified them as a bottom-tier goalie.

Craig Anderson (Buffalo Sabres)

Samuel Montembeault (Montreal Canadiens)

Joonas Korpisalo (Columbus Blue Jackets)

8 Comments

  1. pnparker50 2022-09-06 at 17:21

    Thank you for this goalie tier! Where would you place Jack Campbell and Logan Thompson??

    Thank you!

    • Brennan Des 2022-09-07 at 09:48

      Thanks so much for reading!

      For a quick answer, I’d probably put Campbell in tier 2/3 (good goalie + good team) and Thompson in 4/5. Thompson has good potential but doesn’t have much NHL experience, and I think there’s a significant risk of Adin Hill becoming Vegas’ starter/1A option (assuming he’s no longer hindered by injuries from last season).

      For a more detailed answer, Grant Campbell, who covers the Western Conference here at DobberHockey, should have a tier list of goalies in the West next week. So be sure to check out his Wild West column when it comes out!

      • pnparker50 2022-09-07 at 12:09

        You really thing Elvis (and Columbus) can play stronger goaltending/defense?? I need W, GAA, SV%, and SO… so is he my sleeper??

        THANK YOU!

  2. titto 2022-09-06 at 22:18

    What about Fleury and Talbot?

  3. Frédérick Clermont Letendre 2022-09-06 at 23:12

    Saros?

  4. Jaspaul Bul 2022-09-06 at 23:59

    No tier for Connor Hellebuyck?

  5. Denis Desrosiers 2022-09-07 at 07:39

    How can you not have Jusse Saros not listed…..Am I missing something?

    • Mike Braun 2022-09-18 at 15:49

      Actually, he does have Saros not listed.

      But if you read the title of the article and the first sentence, you might glean that this is about Eastern Conference goalies.

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