Ramblings: Planning Around the NHL Schedule; Bargain Goalies Like Talbot & Fleury (Sep 7)
Alexander MacLean
2022-09-07
Every year I put together a bit of a schedule planner for myself to look ahead to the games played by each NHL team in the fantasy finals weeks. The last few years it has been less useful with any planning around Covid schedules being a complete crapshoot.
This year though we can anticipate (with our fingers crossed) from the get-go that the schedule should remain static through the year. That means that we can plan ahead more than we have been able to of late.
Keep in mind, that planning for head-to-head playoffs is not something to do much of at the draft. If it becomes the focus, it becomes your downfall. The tradeoff in having a lot of players with good H2H schedules, is that those extra games are packed at the end, instead of being during the bulk of the season when you're trying to compete to get to the playoffs in the first place. You can't win if you're not in, so that has to remain the primary focus.
With that in mind, let's jump to some schedule notes.
Regular season:
-San Jose and Nashville are the only teams to start the year with four games in the first fantasy week, while most teams only play two. This makes players from these teams great targets in the last couple rounds. Guys like Alex Barabanov, Tanner Jeannot (depending on your league), Mattias Ekholm, and Kevin Labanc will make nice streams with those late picks, either to be traded if they start hot and you can manage it, or dumped for the next hot piece on the FA pile.
-On the flip side of that, St. Louis and Winnipeg only play one game by October 16th. Good time to buy "low" on those players, and to see if there are any hanging around on the waiver wire.
-The first "week" of the fantasy hockey season (Oct 7-16) is a lighted one, with only about three-quarters of the total number of games that we see in a normal week. Lots of chance for variation here, so maximizing games played it key, as it making sure you hit your minimum games for goalies.
-Not counting the 10-day-long final week of the regular season, the Philadelphia Flyers are the only team with a five-game week, with only two off days between Jan 16th and Jan 22nd.
-In case you weren't already staying away from Arizona players in your fantasy leagues, then by mid-November you'll surely be ready to rid yourself of them. Nov 14-20 (week 6) the Coyotes play only one game, the only team after week one to have such a light week.
-During the two-week period around the all-star break, where the NHL also gives teams a few extra days off before or after the break, there are nine teams playing four games, and seven teams playing two. Keep an eye on the schedule (and how many adds your league allows you during that period) and it should be an excellent time to gain a bunch of extra games if you make some savvy adds.
Playoff weeks:
Depending on how your league runs the fantasy playoffs, or how you need to gain ground in games played by the end of the year, varying weeks may be the target ones.
-For overall games played from week 22-25 (head-to-head leagues with four playoff weeks including an extended finals matchup), the teams to target are: BOS, CAR, COL, NSH, TOR & VAN. They each play 17 games during that period. Meanwhile, the Islanders are to be avoided, as they have 14 games
-For the later three-week playoff setups (week 23-25), the best teams to target are Carolina and Detroit, with 14 games each during the three-week period. The NY Islanders, Tampa Bay, Winnipeg, and Washington each only play 11.
-For the earlier three-week playoff setups (week 22-24), the best team to target is Boston, meaning stashing Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy before they return might be a great play in the long run. Meanwhile, Minnesota, San Jose, Seattle, and Vegas each only play nine.
-At some point I might take this a step further and combine the game totals with the number of off-day games per week from each of these teams, but it's a little too early in the year to be setting too much sight on the playoff weeks.
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While looking at the schedule it's also very notable that Arizona plays 16 of their first 20 games on the road. Even for a decent team (like the Islanders were last year with their 14-game road trip to start the year) it's enough to set a team back and build not just a hole that is impossible to climb out of, but a losing mentality for the rest of the year. As mentioned above, if you weren't avoiding them already, maybe knock those Coyotes a little father down your draft list.
However, there does come a point where things get so low that the only place to go is up. The Canadiens hit it last year, and it coincided with the coaching swap which propelled them up even higher. In Arizona's case I don't expect a coaching change next year, but I do think the larger concentration of home games in the second half may play a role in some better-than-expected results for them after Christmas.
The team is going to be playing in a 5000-seat arena, and I have a bit of a hunch that they are going to feed off of the atmosphere that is going to create. 5000 fans in a 20000-seat arena is very different from a packed house, even if the arena is smaller. If you've ever been to a sold-out AHL or Junior game, you know the atmosphere. Especially with other teams coming in and being uncomfortable with the sub-par NHL facilities, the Coyotes may have a distinct advantage at home that will play into some more wins than expected in the second-half. It may not be enough to make the playoffs, but I don't think they finish bottom-four in the conference.
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Speaking of playoff teams, if you're looking at a few in order to try and sort out your goaltending, then you may be able to find a few bargains in the East. There seems to be a consensus that the seven of Toronto, Florida, Tampa, Carolina, NY Rangers, Pittsburgh, and Washington are likely locks, but I'm not convinced yet.
I've talked about New Jersey in previous Ramblings, and I do feel that they will make the playoffs next year, with the addition of Vitek Vanecek proving to be a big difference-maker.
Between Boston, Columbus, Ottawa, and the Islanders, the East certainly won't be all wrapped-up by Christmas again.
I also feel like I've talked ad-nauseum about the Bruins as well, but as long as they can stay alive for the first month or two without Marchand and McAvoy, then they're never to be counted out. On the flip-side, the additions of Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus, along with Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, and Cam Talbot in Ottawa, the added depth in the conference may bot just push the injured Bruins down. The aging Pens and Caps may be in trouble trying to keep up. Both Elvis Merzlikins and Cam Talbot may be great under-the-radar adds this year for a fantasy team looking for 25-30 wins, some decent ratios, and a lot of saves. A better bet than trying to sort out which of the Bruins goalies will start on any given day.
As for the Isles, Ilya Sorokin may be one of the best goalies to draft this year. His upside is as high as Igor Shesterkin, and he may start more with Barry Trotz out of the picture, though the team in front of him is a long shot from a guaranteed playoff roster.
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Out West, the best value is likely to be Marc-Andre Fleury. He will start 60+ games on one of the top-five teams in the conference, and has always put up solid peripherals. There's no competition in backup Filip Gustafsson, and his age will scare off other managers to the point that you can almost guarantee he slips a round farther than you would be happy to take him in drafts.
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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
See you next Wednesday!