Ramblings: Mailbag Time! Brannstrom, Konecny, Frost, Eklund, Demko vs. Campbell, H2H tips and more … (Sep 19)
Dobber
2022-09-19
OUT NOW!
The last update for the Fantasy Guide was Saturday. But this "slow period" is about to end! With camps opening this week, you can expect update frequency to ramp up to multiple times PER DAY. So don't ask when was the last update, because the answer will always be "a few hours ago". Pick up the Fantasy Guide here and immediately download both the PDF and the spreadsheet. The Guide will continue to get updates on injuries, signings, camp cuts and more – projections, line combos and notes all get updated throughout.
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Have you checked out the new Goalie Post yet? Set up your email update notifications now (you'll have to do it again, with the new platform).
Opening (hopefully) Tuesday – Dobbernomics registration. The new 'nomics website will relaunch, scheduled for Tuesday. Faster. Slicker. Better.
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We're in the heart of fantasy hockey draft season so I figured it was a great time to take your questions. So off to Twitter I went!
Lon here refers to Ivan Miroshnichenko, who was drafted by the Caps 20th overall last summer. I actually have him ranked 415th on my Fantasy Prospects List, and 29th among all forwards drafted in 2022. I consider him four years away, with an upside that is decent but not star-caliber, and the Russia factor hurts him a little as well.
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This isn't as common as it used to be, but a lot of leagues still do this. With Hits such a popular and accepted stat that has now been around for such a long time, many leagues have converted from PIM to Hits. But there are still a few old-school holdout leagues who reward PIM. It's up to the commish!
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Using the tier system, I draft a goalie the moment I feel that I won't get one in the first tier. If that fear strikes me in the third round (doubtful, but it happens), so be it. If that fear hits me in the 12th round – great! But I don't have a set round, I follow the flow of the draft. I don't want to miss out on a Tier 1 guy, but I waste as low of a pick as possible.
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I haven't played H2H in over a decade, so I went to my colleagues Ian Gooding and Alex MacLean for insight. My opinion is that if you punt a category it's always plus/minus. MacLean agreed.
MacLean also added:
"I play in a few h2h categories leagues, and the main one is G/A/SOG/PPPs/Hits/BLKS/FOWs, plus W/SV/SV%/GAA for goalies. I’ve won Three championships plus two other finals appearances in the last six years by gunning for SOG, Hits, blocks, and FOWs, then splitting the goalie categories. Defensemen that get at least five SOG+ Hits+ BLKS per game as the floor there, and forwards with at least four, especially if they don’t win faceoffs. Leagues like this are flawed, and they’re much easier to win just based on executing a strategy well versus projecting breakouts and having the best players."
Gooding provided some great research advise that should help:
"You also have the SOG+HIT+BLK category on Frozen Tools (click here for that tool), if you want to target certain players that can provide in all three. Jacob Trouba had the highest number of all three last season, followed closely by Brady Tkachuk and Radko Gudas."
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I had Frozen Tools developer Eric Daoust look into this and he ran a little report for me. Key names that stand out here are Connor Brown, Mark Stone, Tyler Toffoli, Pavel Zacha, Alex DeBrincat and possibly Mike Hoffman.
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I have my Top 25 forwards already presented in the Fantasy Prospects Report. And after the draft placed these players onto their teams, the only changes I would make to this list are as follows: I would move Logan Cooley up one spot to second, which knocks Shane Wright down to third. Other small tweaks I would do is probably move Conor Geekie up a little higher and the aforementioned Miroshnichenko down a bit. But that's just nitpicking. So, to summarize, here are my Top 5: Juraj Slafkovsky, Logan Cooley, Shane Wright, Matthew Savoie, Frank Nazar – with the understanding that Slafkovsky is probably going to take a Kakko length of time to get going.
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He could be and he should be. I wouldn't bet on it for this year though, and if Philly doesn't right the ship within a couple of years I would start to doubt it happens. He had a 76-point pace (66 games) in 2019-20 so the proof is already there.
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I think they can both co-exist. Even at a split of PP time, Hamilton can produce at a 60-point pace. He just needs to stay healthy. And for those worried about a PP time split, Hamilton averaged 2:42 per game in the final 20 games, and Severson averaged 2:22. Both players can and will see plenty.
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Great question. I think Samuel Girard gets traded midseason at some point and then the top unit is likely his on the new team. I wouldn't be shocked if Erik Brannstrom starts to come into his own, and is one to watch. If Kris Letang gets hurt (which happens at times), then Ty Smith will get a good look. Rookie Scott Perunovich has such great upside that it wouldn't surprise me if he actually usurps Torey Krug later in the campaign.
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Besides Evgeny Kuznetsov's two prior seasons being significantly down versus what he did a year ago, his production is helped along by Alex Ovechkin (our new Frozen Tools feature is a chart with "best linemate", which you can find in the 'linemates' tab of player profiles. Click Evgeny Kuznetsov and then go to that tab. You can see that Ovechkin was there for 39 of his points at even strength and 26 of his PP points – or 65 of his 74 points! So if I have Ovechkin dropping by 11 points, I can have Kuznetsov dropping by 12. But you are correct, many of Kuznetsov's other stats do not really indicate a big production dip. All I have are some weakish possession numbers and an aging superstar linemate.
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I would take Anton Lundell first and Scott Perunovich with your eleventh.
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I'm guilty of taking risky picks a little too soon, and a lot too often. Depends on how the rest of your team is looking. If your slots are filled with steady guys, then I'd take plenty of big swings. If not, well then it would depend on the level of risk/certainty.
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I believe he will.
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I think the path he's on is still fine. Two seasons of tough-luck injuries really hammered down his fantasy value. But now it's time to put up or shut up. He's 23 now, so he needs to show us something – even on such a terrible team. He produced at a 24-point pace last season and I would like to see this exceed 40 this year. I have him projected for 36, but he's my favorite sleeper on his team to do better than I project. If he can clear 40, then I think he'll get to 60-plus down the road.
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I take Thatcher Demko in a dynasty league, but would prefer Jack Campbell in a one-year league.
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One hundred percent. He would need to go a dozen games with just a point or two before he'd get taken off that line.
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I think that system is perfect for him and he will do fine. At least for this year, he'll be pretty safe.
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And finally, did you see this?
That's right! If you used Rotoworld for all your player news blurbs, you've noticed that they've stopped (they're now called NBC Edge, but same diff). Well, DobberHockey's Frozen Tools now provides the same feed! Bookmark it here – https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_news.php
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See you next Monday.
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Surprised to see the choice of Campbell over Demko in one year leagues. In the guide you have Demko projected to tie or beat Campbell in standard goalie categories this year, so why go with Campbell?
Great call to pick up where Rotoworld left off! I’m a GM in a 44 years -running keeper league. I have McKeens and Forecaster to cover all bases, but Dobber is the best for miles!!!