Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team "card" league where goal scoring is important, who is the better own for this season and next: Oliver Bjorkstrand or Valeri Nichushkin?

With his move to Seattle, Bjorkstrand goes from a featured player to top line fixture both at ES and on the PP. The question is, however, whether Seattle will have the firepower for that to be impactful. Nichushkin, despite his 2021-22 coming out party, has some question marks as well, most notably whether it will be him – versus J.T. Compher, Artturi Lehkonen, or even Alex Newhook or Evan Rodrigues – who grabs the now vacant PP1 spot formerly held by Nazem Kadri. Nichushkin is a big body player; however, the Avs already have Gabriel Landeskog for that role, and might prefer one of those other four to complete the top unit in place of Kadri, who was not at all in Nichushkin's mold. Then again, with the money Nichushkin is now earning, it might just be that the spot is his by default.

Placing that aside, there's also the issue as to how Nichushkin will be deployed at even strength. In the games Gabriel Landeskog missed, Nichushkin took his spot on the top line and as a result he had 44% (i.e., 19 out of 43) of his even strength points with Nathan MacKinnon and/or Mikko Rantanen on the ice despite skating with one or both for only 31% of his even strength ice time. On top of that, we can't rule out that Nichushkin was playing better because he was a UFA to be, and now might ease off the gas pedal. Cutting against that though was the fact Nichushkin hit his 400-game breakout threshold, although it still raises at least back of the mind concerns.

As for Bjorkstrand, last season at times he was scorching hot (16 points in his first 14 games of the season; a stretch of 20 points in 20 games; then ending with seven points in his last four games of the season); but in between he had more than one cold spell. Still, in the end the dots connected for 57 points in 80 games. Also key was Bjorkstrand getting a spot on PP1 and making the most of it, with 19 PPPts, after totaling 15 in his prior three seasons combined. No question Bjorkstrand will be on PP1 for the Kraken, and it figures to be a solid unit, with himself, Andrei Burakovsky, Matty Berniers, and one of Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann, or Shane Wright. How will the Kraken fare at even strength though, as while they did add Bjorkstrand and Burakovsky, neither of them has been a "the guy" type of player, so one cannot automatically assume either will step up and assume that role (after all, Jared McCann didn't last season). Plus, the team will need help from either young players like Berniers and Wright, or veterans who mainly didn't fare that well last season.

To me, the distinguishing factor is Bjorkstrand's locked role on PP1, whereas it's not at all clear Nichushkin will stake out a spot on Colorado's top unit. Add to that concerns about Nichushkin having upped his effort level to coincide with his UFA status, and I'm taking Bjorkstrand here.

Topic #2 – In a keeper roto league with categories of G, A, SOG, HIT and BLK, who should be the first defenseman taken from this group: Rasmus Dahlin, Charlie McAvoy, Aaron Ekblad, Thomas Chabot, Dougie Hamilton, or Quinn Hughes?

If this wasn't a multicat, it'd be an easy Hughes; however, he's so poor in HIT and BLK, and the other choices are all very capable, so he can't be the choice. Neither can Hamilton, who I do think will rebound in a big way but is old enough to cut against his value in a keeper given the other options. Lastly, Chabot should be better than he is; however, as I've noted in my columns he is downright lousy on the PP, as despite missed games he managed to log the ninth most collective PP minutes among all d-men over the past four seasons, but stood tied for 24th in collective PPPts over that period, 50% below the rearguard who's tenth. Ottawa also vastly upgraded its forwards, who stand a good chance to syphon away even more PPPts. Chabot is fine, but just not elite enough to be chosen first here.

As for the rest, Ekblad and McAvoy were covered in the same Goldipucks column back in July, where I noted that both had an astonishingly high secondary assist rate. For McAvoy there were balancing factors; however, for Ekblad that, plus the boost he got by the Panthers scoring rate being unsustainably high, translate to him not being more than a ~60 point d-man, which is about the top end for McAvoy too. In contrast, Dahlin, who let's not forget is still only 22 years old despite being about to enter his fifth season, tallied 16 points in his last 20 contests, which saw the Sabres come together as a team to average 3.40 goals per game despite being shut out in two of those contests. This is far above their 2.79 rate for the season overall. The team figures to be much, much better offensively; and although Owen Power is a top tier talent, it is Dahlin who stands to benefit more so in that he's the source of blueline offense and the PP1 QB. I think that Dahlin hits 70 points this season, a stepping stone to greater heights, and placing him above everyone else.

Topic #3 – In a points-only keeper, who is the better own: Alex DeBrincat or Andrei Svechnikov?

In the Forum thread, the consensus was these two should be pretty even. Not in my book. If you're a reader of this column you're aware I'm not nearly as high on Svech as most. To back it up, consider that since 1990-91 there've been 77 forwards who played 200-300 games by age 21, and Svech stands only 21st in points per game, which is good but certainly not great.

Here's something else – since Svech came into the league, Carolina, as a team has collectively scored 912 goals, with Svech amassing 209 points, meaning he factored into 23% of his team's goals. Looking at DeBrincat's over the same four seasons, although he is over two years older, as a smaller player he hasn't his hit 400-game breakout threshold, whereas despite being younger Svech has passed his 200-game mark, so if anything Svech should be doing better already. Yet in the same four seasons, Debrincat had 255 points despite playing in a nearly identical number of games as Svechnikov (286 for DeBrincat, 283 for Svech) and the Blackawks tallying only 827 goals as a team, meaning DeBrincat factored into just under 31% of his team's goals, i.e., a third more than Svech. Of course, the argument could be made that Carolina was a more talent-laden team, in turn making it more difficult for Svech to grab points, but by the same token, the nearly 100 more goals they scored gave Svech a better chance to get points. I'd say it's a wash in terms of more players to share in points but more points to go around. As such, what DeBrincat did is more impressive.

What we don't know is how DeBrincat will fare on an Ottawa team with what looks to be a stacked top six. Chances are DeBrincat will be a PP1 fixture, inasmuch as he had the ninth most PPGs of any forward over the past four seasons. Although he could be a second liner, if so it'd likely be alongside Tim Stutzle, who had 31 points in his last 27 games in 2021-22, as well as Claude Giroux, who, once he left the offensive wasteland that was Philly last season, posted 23 points in 18 games with the Panthers.

DeBrincat's overall IPP for every season of his career has ranged from 65.2% to 71.8%, for an average of 68.5%, or just below the 70% threshold that I like to see from a forward in order to show that he's a scoring magnet, versus just a passenger. In contrast, Svechnikov's IPPs have ranged from 58.3% to 66.3%, for an average of 61.9%, or quite a bit below DeBrincat and troublingly low for a player as hyped as he continues to be. Seeing this, one has to question whether Svechnikov has the chops to be an elite scorer on a Hurricanes squad with other players who have as much if not more talent and, importantly, higher IPPs.

All things considered, I'm taking DeBrincat here, and I don't think it's as anywhere near as close as those in the Forum thread did. I'll say it again – if you're counting on Svechnikov to be a breakout star anytime soon, you might be in for continued disappointment.

Topic #4 – In a 10 team league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1G, 5 Bench, plus daily moves but limits of 99 games per skater position and 82 games per goalie position, and categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPPts, SOG, Defensemen Points, W, GAA, SV%, SV, a GM has three sure thing keepers in Nikita Kucherov, Leon Draisaitl, and Andrei Vasilevskiy and needs to pick three more from the following list: Jake Guentzel, Aaron Ekblad, Miro Heiskanen, Darnell Nurse, Kyle Connor, Andrei Svechnikov, Troy Terry, Drake Batherson, Tristan Jarry and Jeremy Swayman. Who are the three that should be kept?

First things first – the three locks are rightfully chosen. They are head and shoulders above the rest, with Vas, if anything, having more value in a 1G league than leagues with more than one goalie since sometimes in those cases when you own Vas you get lulled into a false sense of security and find yourself with lousy options for the second or third goalie spot.

While on the topic of goalies, keeping Jarry or Swayman wouldn't make sense, as although some weeks they'd have more favorable match-ups than Vas and there's an 82-game limit at the position, when you have Vas – as alluded to above – you're all set. Still, Jarry is an entrenched starter and two of the four goalie categories reward those, like him, who have a high volume of starts, so it's possible he could be dealt, although I wouldn't be shocked if there are no takers, as I suspect it might just be Vas and Igor Shesterkin who are kept as goalies given this format.

For the first of the other three keepers, give me Connor. Ignoring his "off" 2020-21 he's been on an upward trajectory and has established himself as a proven elite talent. Plus, as a winger, he is all the more valuable. Do I think he can get much better, if even any better? Unlikely; but if he can give you 40-50 goals and 40-50 assists each season, with heaps of PPPts, that's gold.

Guentzel also is a lock for me. With Pittsburgh not having lost any of its top tier talent, it's clear they're going to try to maintain an elite offense, and Guentzel remains a big part of that. Also, even as the likes of Crosby and Malkin slow, Guentzel could be leaned on more. He's on a par with Connor, or if not then barely a rung below.

I know in the thread there was a lot of support for Ekblad; but as I pointed out in a July edition of Goldipucks, and as noted above, his 2021-22 scoring rate was boosted by an unsustainably high secondary assist rate plus the unlikely to be repeated goal total of the Panthers. If you toss out those factors, Ekblad shapes up to be more of a ~60-point d-man. Plus, he's starting to get to the point where injuries are frequent and might take a toll on him. I will say, however, that I think he'd make for a better keep than Heiskanen, who, although now "the guy" in Dallas, has yet to show he's an offensive force other than that one playoff stretch in 2020 amounting to essentially a third of a season. Don't get me wrong – Heiskanen could outplay Ekblad and do well enough such that, in hindsight, he would have been a wise keep. But with only 60 players kept in total, one has to make decisions based on downside as much as upside, so Heiskanen should go back into the draft pool. As for Ekblad, let's consider him a maybe for now.

Who else though, could be the third other keeper? I'd have said Batherson were it not for the additions made by Ottawa in the offseason which likely will push Batherson to the second PP, plus the 2018 World Juniors uncertainty. Terry definitely did enough to stay on the top line and PP1; however, although Anaheim, like Ottawa, will be scoring more goals, given their additions and other young talent on the rise it's not clear whether Terry will make enough gains to offset added points going to others.

It boils down to Svechnikov and Ekblad. As discussed above, I'm not a fan of Svech, but these are good categories for him, and Connor, although a strong producer, is light in HIT, which is an area where Svech shines. Still, that would mean four wingers kept and no d-man, making it so the team might have to reach for rearguards, which wouldn't be ideal when they comprise four of the ten skater spots. Out of the two less optimal than they seem choices of Svechnikov and Ekblad, I think I'm taking Ekblad here due to the roster composition.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team keep 6 league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 5D, 2G, 5 Bench, and categories weighted as G(4.5), A(3.0), SOG(0.5), PPPt(1.0), SHP(1.0), HIT(0.4), BLK(0.5), W(2.5), SV(0.35), GA(-1.5) and where players have to be kept in assigned rounds, a GM is aiming to keep Nathan MacKinnon (round 1), David Pastrnak (round 2), Cale Makar (round 4), and Juuse Saros (round 7), and has the following players to choose from for the last two spots: Elias Lindholm (round 5), Drake Batherson (round 6), Kevin Fiala (round 6), Brock Boeser (round 11), Victor Olofsson (round 17), Noah Dobson (round 18), Mats Zuccarello (round 18). Which two should be kept, assuming the four "locks" are correct?

I was a bit surprised that no one in the forum thread mentioned the idea of not keeping Pasta. Yes, he shoots a ton and is in his prime; however, does he figure to be four rounds better than Fiala, or 12 than Zucc? If this was two seasons ago, then Pasta would be a no brainer keep; but with the Boston core aging and Pasta not having produced at even a 90-point pace in either of the last two seasons, I'm not sure he remains second round value. With Fiala set to be a major focal point in LA, and Zucc tethered to Kirll Kaprizov, I think Fiala could come close to producing similar numbers to Pasta, and Zucc maybe only 10-15% less, but at a huge bargain round-wise.

The other intriguing player is Dobson, who, despite playing in a Barry Trotz system that focused on defense first, scored all 13 of his goals in his last 63 games and had 36 points in his last 47 contests. And he did this before he hit his 200-game breakout threshold, which will occur this coming season. He's a lock keeper at round 18.

I think what I'd try to do is trade Pasta, who still has name value, and Zuccarello, who would be a sell high, to try and get an upgrade, such as Victor Hedman, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, or Kyle Connor. If that fails, then the question becomes which two of Pasta, Fiala and Zuccarello to keep. If Pasta isn't kept in round 2, he'd likely be available there to draft, although one can't be certain as it would depend on which 72 players are kept. But no question Zucc would be long gone by round 18, and most likely Fiala by round 6. I'd push hard for a trade; however, if one can't be made I'd base the decision on whether, given the likely keepers and tendencies of the other GMs, Pasta would be redraftable in round 2, in which case he's an easy non-keep. If he wouldn't be there, then perhaps the less risky play is indeed to keep him and drop Zucc, who is 35 years old, although he looks like he could be to Minnesota what Joe Pavelski has been to Dallas, meaning he could produce at a top level for several more seasons. Either way though, I like keeping Fiala, who I think is due to explode in LA when finally treated like a top tier talent.

Topic #6 – In a 24 team, H2H keeper with scoring of 2 points for a goal, 1 for an assist, and 0.5 each for a Hit, SOG, or Block, a Mark Scheifele owner has been offered Mika Zibanejad straight up – should they make the trade?

Here's an interesting tidbit – Scheifele is one of just three centers, with Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby being the others, who's produced at a point per game or better rate in each of the last six seasons. Although that is impressive, it's less so than it seems, as only once did he produce at a higher than 85-point pace. Beyond that, his SOG rate has held steady in the range of 2.1-2.4 in all six seasons, and his hits are trending down to roughly one per every other game, while his PPPts tend to be around the one per every 3.5 games played. In other words, Scheifele is a steady eddie, which is great in terms of having next to no downside risk; however, he isn't great in non-scoring areas.

Zibs, who's essentially the same age as Scheifele, had a superb 2019-20, a subpar 2020-21, and a 2021-22 that was right in the middle at a point per game. His peripherals are well above those of Scheifele though, enough to make a difference if they were otherwise equal. And counting the playoffs, Zibs had 89 points in his last 81 games, suggesting he has more to offer than just point per game output.

Also important is that the Rangers have offensive weapons galore, from Artemi Panarin, to Chris Kreider, to Vincent Trocheck, not to mention three youngsters in Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, and Filip Chytil poised to make a leap. In contrast, the Jets have Connor, plus an aging Blake Wheeler, as well as Nicolaj Ehlers, and Pierre-Luc Dubois, the latter of whom is all but assured to be gone the moment he can, if not sooner, and Cole Perfetti, a top tier prospect, but not rivaling the Ranger youngsters. Long story short, Zibs should be able to rack up points playing with a better supporting cast at ES and on PP1, whereas Scheifele might not have quite the weapons, and already pales in comparison to Zibs on peripherals.

I think the choice here is Zibs, and it's less close than one would think. He's better now and is likely to be better longer term.

Topic #7 – In a league with skater categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHP, GWG, HT, SOG, Hits, Blocks, FOW, how would the following forwards be ranked for the next handful of seasons: Elias Pettersson, Kevin Fiala, Sam Reinhart, Nicolaj Ehlers?

I think Ehlers has to be last, as although he's put up solid numbers despite being bypassed for PP1 minutes and often saddled with less talented linemates, someone has to be last and the others simply bring more upside to the table. That having been said, I think the philosophy of Rick Bowness to not lean on a top line or PP1 heavily could serve to help elevate Ehlers' game, as he might see improved usage. Still though, it's not enough to elevate him above the other three under consideration.

Just above Ehlers I've got Reinhart. His versatility and ability to produce on the PP was proven last season and served to show he did indeed have more in him than he showed in Buffalo, where he was often miscast. I covered Reinhart in a recent Goldipucks, where I highlighted that he could still get more ice time and an even higher share of points, such that if Florida does try to become a more well-rounded team and less reliant on outscoring opponents, Reinhart still should be an 80-85 point player. Because that's his downside he's ranked just slightly above Ehlers, who still would need to climb into that territory.

The runner up is Fiala. We saw what he could do last season, and that was without a top-flight center, or PP1 time, or playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov. In LA the first two problems are solved; and although they don't have a Kaprizov of their own, they're hoping Fiala can be theirs. I can't see a world in which he scores less than the 85 points he posted in 2021-22, and 90+ seems like it should be very much achievable as a focal point winger on an LA team that has Anze Kopitar to center him now and a bevy of youngsters poised to do so should Kopitar slow. Fiala will be there to benefit no matter what.

The top choice though is EP. To say he thrived after the Vancouver coaching change would be a vast understatement. For one, although EP seeming stayed in neutral in terms of his SOG rate, which was 2.4 per game for the third straight season, he had 64 in his last 19 games alone, and posted 25 points in those same 19 contests. This just after he hit his 200-game breakout threshold. Coincidence? I think not. Beyond that, Pettersson still can make realistic gains in TOI, as while he was exploding late in the season he was seeing more than 90-seconds of added ice time versus his full season average. In short, EP looked every bit the star he was supposed to be at the end of 2021-22, and should continue to excel this season and in future campaigns, with 100+ points not out of the question if not this season then in the near term.

Topic #8 – In a 12 team, keep 20 + 7 farm, H2H Roto league counting G, A, Shots, Hits, Blocks, PPP, Goalie W, SV%, GAA and where each team has 2 goalies in their active line-up, a non-contending team has the following five goalies: Jeremy Swayman, Ville Husso, Carter Hart, Alexander Georgiev, and Pavel Francouz. Which, if any, should they trade?

My first instinct is – why trade now? Yes, it's possible that the value of some of these goalies might drop as the season goes on. But goalies represent the most limited fantasy asset; and in a league where 24 start and arguably this team has five of the top 30 or 40 goalies, I might opt to hoard them for later on in the season when injuries mount, races tighten and, with that, prices for assets – especially those as precious as starting goalies – skyrocket. Plus, if the team isn't going to contend, there is no need to get better right away. My view would be to hold and hoard for the time being. Let the other GMs know though that any of these goalies could be had now, though only if – big if – the price is right.

Those things all having been said, the lone exception might be to package the two Colorado netminders now, since, as we saw last season, whoever is in net for the Avs will rack up wins and likely still have solid peripherals, making it so the return could be substantial. Plus, by trading them both now the risk of one of them running away with the starting job and leaving the other with little to no value is avoided, although in that case perhaps the price for whomever is the true starter will have skyrocketed enough as to be a net – pun intended – gain versus trading them both now. Again, the thing to do is let it be known to the other GMs that they're available and then sit back and see if you're wowed. If not, I'd hold and wait for the season to unfold.

How many should be traded? I'd aim for two, and I would let the deals dictate who gets traded, as I don't see one of them being more valuable than the others, except if, as discussed above, Georgiev or Francouz become the true #1 in Colorado. Swayman is well regarded; but my concern is once he rounds into form the core of the Bs either will be retired or a far cry from what they had been in recent seasons. David Pastrnak could also walk after this season, which would be a huge blow. While some might covet Swayman, I'd be somewhat more inclined to try and trade him to seize upon his hype from last season and, hopefully, strong 2022-23 play.

I'm also not sold on Husso. Once he became the true starter in St. Louis, his numbers worsened. Yes, it might have been a function of a much higher playing volume than normal, which would not likely be a recurring issue; however, he's not earning much more than Alex Nedeljkovic, who also happens to be playing for a UFA contract and the last time he wasn't an anointed starter he played superbly for Carolina. Is there enough concern to trade Husso right now? Not necessarily; however, it is a consideration notwithstanding what I said above.

Topic #9 – Who represents the better keeper defenseman: Jamie Drysdale or Owen Power?

Normally one would easily pick the guy who was selected first overall, but I don't think that's the case here.

Power was drafted despite the Sabres already having Rasmus Dahlin and seeing his success at the NHL level. Power strikes me as more of a "long game" guy though, whom the Sabres foresee as being their true #1 d-man, versus Dahlin being their source for blueline offense. Power also provides Buffalo with ability to risk signing Dahlin to a shorter-term deal when Dahlin's current contract expires in 2024. Or the team could have a powerful "one-two" blueline punch similar to what the Red Wings had in its heyday with Power being the Nicklas Lidstrom to Dahlin's Brian Rafalski or Mathieu Schneider, or, more recently, the Preds, with Dahlin being akin to Roman Josi and Power to Shea Weber.

Drysdale, like Power, is on a team that figures to be improving as he matures. The difference is there is no Rasmus Dahlin in the picture. Yes, John Klingberg is there for 2022-23; however, he is most likely headed elsewhere after – or even during – this season, although for what it's worth the last time a big name UFA d-man signed a one year deal it was Tyson Barrie, who then surprised most everyone and opted to stay with the Oilers for three more seasons despite the presence of Evan Bouchard. Still, Drysdale could be "the guy" on the Anaheim blueline as soon as 2023-24. And although they might not hand him the keys to the kingdom then at age 21, the reality is barring injury he'll have had nearly 200 games under his belt by the start of 2023-24, which would likely be seen as enough to at least run PP1 and log major minutes for the team.

In fantasy, a player's value is not something that can be assessed in a vacuum; and this is a perfect example as to why. Power might have more pure talent and potential than Drysdale; but in terms of their situations, Drysdale has the edge, enough so to make him the guy, of the two, whom I'd want to have in a keeper. Yes, Power and Dahlin could form a great tandem; however, more likely Dahlin continues to be given coveted PP1 minutes and be looked upon for offense from the blueline, while Power is shaped to be a true #1 d-man who will be focused as much on his end of the ice as the other team's. Make no mistake – Anaheim would like nothing more than for Drysdale to be a complete defenseman for them; however, in his case that will include, starting next season or even later in 2022-23, PP1 minutes which Power might never get or will only get down the road.

************

Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag has room for questions, but please don't send any questions about draft or keeper advice due to the column publishing only after the start of the regular season. But things like team audits, line-up advice, projections, among others, are fine to send. To get your questions to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.