Ramblings: Chara, Subban & Yandle Retire; MacKinnon’s New Contract; Drafts Targets Past Pick #100 (Sept 21)
Alexander MacLean
2022-09-21
Within the span of an hour yesterday we had retirement announcements from three excellent defencemen over the last two decades, with Zdeno Chara, P.K. Subban, and Keith Yandle all hanging up their skates.
Chara leaves as the all-time games played leader among defencemen, a cup winner in 2011, and a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame. Yandle leaves as the NHL's Iron-man record holder, and having led an extremely successful career as a points-producer from the blueline. Meanwhile, P.K. Subban retires at only 33, with back injuries having taken away the explosiveness that defined his game in the early years, culminating in a Norris Trophy.
In all, a big piece of recent hockey history was finalized yesterday, and as both fans and fantasy GMs we can all appreciate how much these three brought to the game through their excellent careers.
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Nathan MacKinnon signed an extension that makes him the highest paid player (based on cap hit) in the league next season. His new cap hit will be $12.6 million, and that's still going to be a very fair number for him in fantasy leagues. My projections had an extension coming in for him above $13 million per year, and with the cap expected to rise quickly, this deal may not even age poorly as it hits the last few years. In the meantime, Colorado's depth may take a bit of a hit in the short term, but then again they have never really overpaid their depth players, and they have some young players ready to step into larger roles.
Accepting a cap hit just $100,000 more than the current highest paid player in Connor McDavid is also the kind of one-upmanship that we get with uber competitive players like MacKinnon.
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The Marco Scandella injury news (hip surgery – out at least six months) means that there is a little more of an opportunity for Scott Perunovich to keep the third-pairing spot on the left side, however Nikko Mikkola has the bigger contract and will give him a good push. Perunovich still could be a good buy-low early in the year if he starts slow.
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Last week I did a preliminary run-through of all of the top-100 players, and how I'm feeling about drafting them to begin sorting out my rankings for the year. A t the end I promised to cover some of my key guys that I will be looking at outside of the top-100, so let's jump right into that.
Again, I'm going to run by Fantrax ADP to organize players off the start, as it's a much better base than Yahoo. All of my leagues include hits, shots, and power play points to some variation of value, among a few other stats. I'll take those base stats into consideration along with a main focus on points.
101-200 range
Vincent Trocheck (ADP – 127): The new Rangers centre has an easy route to being a top-50 player in multi-category leagues, as he should now be on the top power play, and playing alongside Artemi Panarin at all situations should buoy his point totals higher than they ever were in Carolina.
Boone Jenner (153): Another multi-cat stud, but also…
Michael Bunting (156): Bunting was a top-100 player last year, and as he is now no longer a "rookie" could even see his ice time jump up over 16 minutes per game, which could bring both his point totals, and excellent peripherals, even higher.
Jakob Chychrun (170): He may be drafted higher than this in a lot of leagues, and the fact he has both injury concerns and a short track record of scoring success may scare some of you off, but at this point in the draft there will be no defenceman on the board with higher immediate upside than Chychrun, guaranteed. You win your leagues with picks like this, and if they flame out, well you haven't lost all that much anyways.
Tanner Jeannot/Seth Jarvis/Pavel Francouz: I've spoken enough about these three over the last few months. They will be on quite a few of my teams this year, and will all be taken by me before their ADPs in the 170s.
Matthew Beniers (179): Abbreviated success in the NHL, first line centre, well insulated with quality two-way wingers. Another one of those upside picks that could serve you very well.
Ryan O'Reilly (182): On the flip side of the Beniers option, we have the safe 60- to 70-point centre with two shots per game (though limited in the other peripherals columns). Either way you decide to go, the bottom line is you can easily fill up on centres closer to pick 200, so unless you have a top-three pick, think long and hard about whether you need that centre you're considering in the top-100 this year.
201-300
Jakub Voracek (210): Can I interest you in a 65pt winger who is about to put up 25 power play points, and you can have him after pick 200 because no one likes the Blue Jackets?
David Krejci (223): Here's another one of those later centres that you can have. He's going to be starting the year between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak. Those two dragged Erik Haula to being a point-per-game player as their centre, so Krejci should have no problem keeping up despite the age or the year away from the NHL.
Nino Niederreiter (234): Maybe there's a little bit of the Preds homer in me shining through here, but I'm looking for him to play over 16 minutes per game for the first time since his 53-point campaign back in 2018-19 (split between MIN/CAR). He's also likely playing alongside pass-first centre in Ryan Johansen, and will be locked into the top-six all year. Oh and he also racked up 119 hits last year and is joining the team who hit the most overall last season.
I know Cliffy just wrote about Nino yesterday and how he is in a battle with Eeli Tolvanen for the LW2 spot, but I think it's more likely that we see Tolvanen battling with fellow youngster Philip Tomasino for the RW2 spot.
300+
Ross Colton (348): Colton may only have 109 NHL games under his belt, but depending on how playoff games factor into the breakout threshold, he may be less than half-a-season away from his jump in production. Last year he paced for 40 points while playing less than 13 minutes per game, and the opportunity is there this season for extra ice time with the top-six group due to injuries and offseason departures. A jump to 55 points would be in line with his breakout, but that may end up being more of a second-half-pace than a full-season pace. Racking up 200 shots and 200 hits wouldn't be out of the question either with the added ice time.
Alexander Holtz (390): There is a top-nine spot for Holtz on the wing this year, and within the last year he has looked more and more ready to stick in the NHL. With a few excellent passers on the team, Holtz and his ability to sling the puck into the net from almost anywhere should have an easier time adapting to being a full-time scorer at the NHL level.
Dylan Cozens (426): This feels like one of those excellent post-hype breakouts that we all feel we should have seen coming. The former 7th overall selection could be a fixture in the top-six this year that has some more support on the back-end, and a bit more scoring ability on the wings as well. Especially with Peyton Krebs and Jack Quinn both expected to make an impact, the doors are open for the youth in Buffalo to really take over the offensive side of the puck for the team.
Well, there you have it. The rest of the key guys that are likely going to be in my watchlist/queue to realistically be drafted onto my fantasy teams.
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If instead of draft prepping your head is still up in the offseason clouds thinking about your rebuild and what it may look like in three years, then maybe this article will be more to your liking:
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In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!