Geek of the Week: New Faces in New Places – Forwards

Scott Royce

2022-09-25

We are slowly inching up on the absolute best time of year to be a sports fan! The MLB playoffs are about to start, while the NFL is in full swing. Most importantly though, NHL and NBA are just around the corner! And with that comes a fresh season of fantasy sports! If you are a DobberHockey reader, you know that now is the perfect time to be studying up for the upcoming season. The last two weeks I've covered goaltenders and defensemen who traded jerseys this summer. This week we will wrap that up by looking at some forwards who found new teams this offseason that could be of interest come draft time!

Vincent Trocheck

Time sure does fly! It feels like it was just yesterday when I was watching Trocheck represent Team North America in the World Cup of Hockey tournament back in 2016. Back then he was a rising star in the league who had just started to show glimpses of greatness in his game. He played for the Florida Panthers for nearly seven seasons before being traded at the deadline in 2019-20 to Carolina for Erik Haula and a package of prospects. 

As a Panther, he really showed he was a capable point-getter. His peak season, even to this date, was in 2017-18 when he scored 31 goals, 44 assists for 75 points which all remain career highs for him. He was seemingly on the verge of being a top-end guy in the league but his ascension got cut short the following season when he suffered a gruesome leg injury that cost him nearly 30 games that season.  When he was dealt to Carolina, he was a solid player, but offensively his numbers have never gotten back to what they once were.

I'd argue that Trocheck's slight decline in offense can be attributed to the play style of the Hurricanes. They play a very complete and balanced game. It isn’t always an all-out offensive barrage like you would see teams Edmonton or Florida play. They are very responsible defensively, and you can see that reflected in the offensive numbers of the Hurricanes' players. The point totals are good but don't leap off the page at you. 

That brings us to this summer, where Trocheck opted to test free agency and sign a contract with the New York Rangers. Ironically enough, I find the Rangers' style to be very similar to that of the Hurricanes. Sio the big question going into this season is, will Trocheck see a rise in his offense when surrounded by new teammates or can you expect numbers similar to the ones he had in Carolina? Imagine he will get optimal deployment there and be supplanted with solid linemates, so we will have to see.

The good news for fantasy owners is that even if Trocheck can't break 70 points again, he does bring some extra value to the table in other areas. In the shot department he's right around two shots per game, which is acceptable but not great. He's always been a pretty chippy physical player who isn't afraid to play the body. Last season he had 185 hits which was by far a career high. And if your league tracks faceoff wins, he was 54 percent on the draws last year which is a superb number. So Trocheck does hold up as a solid fantasy option in many ways.

His ADP varies a bit depending on your platform. Yahoo has him going around 157 which is around Round 13 or so, while in ESPN leagues he is going much early, as he sits at an average ADP of 78. I think targeting him for a mid- to late-round pick would be a great play given that he can provide a little bit of everything for your team, but don't reach for him too early. 

Claude Giroux

It had to be vindicating for Ottawa Senators fans to finally have an offseason like the one they had this summer. No more tanking. No more selling off everything and fielding an AHL-caliber product in October. Sens GM Pierre Dorion made some huge waves this summer both via trade and in free agency. Giroux was a big part of that when he signed with Ottawa for $19.5 million over three seasons. This was a move nobody saw coming heading into free agency. 

The question now is how and where will he fit into Ottawa's lineup. With Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle already penciled in as the team's top two centers, it's safe to say Giroux will mostly be playing on the wing, though he can certainly play down the middle if needed. He has some of the most elite faceoff percentage numbers over the past six or seven years, so it'd be nice to see him take some draws. Giroux oftentimes has been triple-eligible at all three forward positions on Yahoo, so he's pretty versatile in that sense. Whether he plays on the first or second line is still anyone's guess. No matter where he lands, the Sens have a pretty stellar top-six so he will have quality linemates. I get excited at the possibility of a Stutzle, DeBrincat and Giroux line, though! 

Giroux's offense has really been his main selling point as far as fantasy hockey is concerned. His shot rate is fairly decent, averaging 2.6 shots per game over his entire career. As I mentioned earlier, he is an asset in any league that tracks faceoffs, but it's hard to know how much center he will see this season. It should also be worth considering he isn't a lock to be on the first power-play unit. Dropping down to the second unit could hurt his production a bit, and therefore tank his fantasy value to a certain degree.

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Aside from who and where he plays, the other main concern is his age. He's set to turn 35 in January, so that's just something to consider. Though with that being said, he has maintained a fairly clean bill of health throughout most of his career. His ADP on Yahoo is all the way down to 159, so he's falling to the late rounds of most drafts. ESPN has his ADP slightly higher at 128, which is closer to mid-round value. I'd lean more towards Yahoo's numbers though on this one.

For all the reasons stated above, Giroux is a pretty high-risk, high-reward type of pick this season. His ceiling could be absolutely massive. If the Senators click right out of the gate and that offense gets going, I could see Giroux having a great year. I would let someone else take the gamble on him, but if he drops to the rounds where you are starting to pick you bench players, he's definitely worth the risk at that point.

David Perron

The last of my trio of forwards is similar to Giroux in a lot of ways. David Perron opted to sign a two-year, $9.5 million contract with the Detroit Red Wings over the summer. Look for him to slot into the second line alongside another fellow newcomer Andrew Copp. With these two signees along with the development of nucleus they already have in place, the Yzer-plan seems to be coming along very nicely. Perron will be a perfect fit for the Red Wings as he will bring both skill and veteran presence to help guide the slew of young talent.

Perron is 34 years of age, but unlike Giroux, he has battled through a ton of injuries throughout his 15-year career. Staying healthy and off the injured reserve is probably the biggest key for his fantasy success this season. I know the Red Wings are a pretty hard drop off from the St. Louis Blues, but I think Perron could get some good chances to produce. I think it's reasonably possible he ends up on the team's top power play unit, though obviously that's not a guarantee at this point. 

When healthy, Perron has shown he is capable of racking up points. Last season in just 56 games he had 58 points, 26 of those coming on the man advantage. Historically he has been a reliable source of hits, but you have to imagine that'll slow down as he gets older.  He shoots at a pretty nice rate as well. In both of the last two seasons he's averaged over 2.5 shots per game. 

His ADP is interesting to me as he is rated well above the aforementioned Claude Giroux. I think Giroux has the higher ceiling of the two this season, but I think I'd draft them around the same spot which is mid-to-late rounds. However, on Yahoo his ADP is 97, while on ESPN he sits just a bit lower at 108. To me, this is too much of a reach. Even outside of the points, Giroux can bring you more in other categories, plus I also think Ottawa has a higher chance to thrive this season compared to Detroit (though the Red Wings aren't far off). In my opinion, Perron is a great bench option for your team heading into this season.

Well, that wraps up our three-week overview of players who will be playing for new teams this year. This weekend and next weekend prime drafting times for fantasy hockey, so best of luck to everyone on their drafts. I will be back next Sunday with some more insights on our upcoming hockey season! Cheers!

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