While 50 goals are the number most fantasy general managers drool over, scoring 40 goals in today’s NHL is a great accomplishment.

Only 37 players have scored 40 goals a season in the past 10 years. While there are plenty of the usual names, there are a few surprises (Matt Duchene, Brayden Point, William Karlsson and Anders Lee). Looking at the list, some names stand out for not being there. Max Pacioretty, Jack Eichel, Anze Kopitar, Aleksander Barkov and Phil Kessel are among the many names who have never scored 40 goals in a campaign.

Below are 10 players who have never reached that goal but have an excellent chance to do it this season. To predict 40 goals, you’re looking for players who have a high shooting percentage, those who shoot the puck plenty, or have a combination of the two.

I’m not saying all the players on this list will score 40 goals this year, but they find themselves with a great opportunity. While some of these names may surprise you in that they have never potted 40 goals, there are also a couple of dark horse picks.

10. Boone Jenner

It might seem crazy to list Jenner as having a chance to score 40 goals this year, considering he’s only broken 20 goals in two of his nine seasons, but there are a couple of things working in his favor this year. The biggest reasoning is that Jenner has been lining up on the top line in Columbus training camp this year, playing alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. He’s also expected to be on the top power-play unit as well. Jenner averaged 2.7 shots per game last season while scoring on 14.4 per cent of his shots. Those numbers could rise significantly this season if he can stick on that top line. Injuries are always a concern for Jenner, so he needs to be able to stick around for the full 82 games. 

9. Tyler Bertuzzi

Bertuzzi could have pushed for 40 goals last year if it wasn’t for his vaccination status. As he was unvaccinated, Bertuzzi was prevented from travelling into Canada last season to play against Canadian teams. However, he scored 30 goals in 68 games. There are rumblings that Canada will open the border to unvaccinated travellers soon, and if that happens, then Bertuzzi’s stock will rise. He averages almost 20 minutes per night and is on the top power-play unit. He has always shot a high percentage, scoring on at least 16 per cent of his shots in each of the last four seasons. He doesn’t shoot the puck often enough to get any higher on this list, but he definitely has an opportunity to net 40.

8. Brady Tkachuk

There are plenty of reasons to like Tkachuk to hit 40 goals this season. His 981 shots over his first four seasons are sixth highest among all players in that span, trailing only Auston Matthews, Alexander Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak. Tkachuk also gets plenty of power-play time, while his 10.4 per cent shooting percentage last year was the highest of his career. The Sens made huge strides in improving their team in the offseason, and the addition of Claude Giroux and Alex Debrincat will help open things up for Tkachuk.

7. Timo Meier

With 35 goals a year ago, Meier was pretty close to joining the 40-club goal. One of the big reasons was his shot volume, which jumped from 2.9 shots per game in 2020-21 to 4.2 shots, fifth highest in the league. He doesn’t have a high shooting percentage at 10.7 per cent last year and a career average of 10.0 per cent, but all he needed last year to reach 40 goals would have been an extra 1.5 per cent in shooting percentage. He should still be on the top power play and playing more than 19 minutes a night, so there should not be any worry about a major decrease in shots.

6. Jack Hughes

Hughes is on the verge of becoming an elite player, and scoring 40 goals this season will help convince any unbelievers that might exist. He’s increased his shot rate each season, up to 3.4 shots per game a year ago. His shooting percentage doubled to 15.8 per cent last year over the previous season. That’s already a 44-goal pace over 82 games. He doesn’t need to improve any of his numbers, he just needs to stay healthy for the full season. 

5. Mikko Rantanen

To score 40 goals in a season, a player needs to average 0.49 goals per game over 82 games. In Rantanen’s last three seasons, he’s averaged 0.45, 0.58 (Covid-shortened season) and 0.48. He’s right on the cusp of that 40-goal mark but hasn’t hit it yet. He’s averaged 3.4 shots per game in each of the last two seasons. Rantanen has also scored on at least 14.2 per cent of his shots in each of his six full seasons in the league. He also converted on 16 of his 91 power-play shots last year. Truthfully, I’m a little shocked he hasn’t already put up 40 goals, but this could be the first season he hits that milestone.

4. Cole Caufield

Honestly, Caufield could have hit 40 goals last season if it wasn’t for Dominique Ducharme. Once Marty St. Louis took over the head coaching duties, Caufield was a completely different player. From February 10 to the end of the season, Caulfield had 22 goals in 37 games, thanks to a 19.3 per cent shooting percentage. He also averaged more than three shots per game in those 37 games. Remember, Caufield is the guy who put up 72 goals in 64 games with the U.S. National team a few years ago, and followed that up with 30 goals in 31 games in the NCAA. There’s no worry when it comes to Caufield scoring goals.

3. Mitch Marner

Marner would have hit 40 goals last season if he hadn’t missed 10 games due to injury. While his shot volume increased slightly (his 3.1 shots per game was the first time he’s even broken the three-shot-per-game mark), it was the inflation in his shooting percentage that played the greatest role in his quest for 40. His 15.6 per cent shooting percentage was easily the best mark of his career, up from his previous career high of 12.8 per cent the season before. Elite players continually improve their game, and all Marner needs is to stay healthy or increase his production on the power play (he had only six power-play goals a year ago) to reach the 40-goal plateau.

2. Sebastian Aho

In the last three years, Aho has scored 38 goals in 68 games, 24 goals in 56 games and 37 goals in 79 games. He was right on the cusp of 40 goals in two of those years. In each of those seasons, he had a shooting percentage of at least 16.2 per cent while averaging at least 2.6 shots per game. Aho is a consistent 80-point player, but has the opportunity to reach 40 goals for the first time this season.

1. Evander Kane

Kane would also be my pick as the player most likely to score 50 goals for the first time. He’s playing with the best player he’s ever played with in Connor McDavid. Last year, he had 22 goals in 42 games and followed that up with a league-leading 13 goals in 15 postseason games. He also scored on 14.5 per cent of his shots, a career high. Kane has always been a big shooter, averaging at least three shots a game for every season except his rookie campaign in 2009-10 with the Atlanta Thrashers.