Now that we have tiered the goalies and defensemen for the West and East, it is time to move on to the forwards. I will start with the Western Conference below. There are a lot more forwards than defense, so we will only expand on the first five tiers this week.

Tier 1

Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers – Even the best player in the NHL has his limits. Will McDavid get to 50 goals this season or next? He might, but he'll need to start shooting a little more as he currently averages about 3.9 shots/game up from his career average of about 3.3/game. He has a career shooting percentage of 15.0 percent and a career-high of 44 goals which he got last season. By comparison, Auston Matthews averaged 4.8 shots/g and had a shooting percentage of 17.2 on his way to 60 goals in 73 games last season.

There is no reason for McDavid or the Oilers to change his game as they have Leon Draisaitl to score 55 goals each year and be the trigger man on the power play. I'm not expecting McDavid to explode for a 60-goal and 90-assist season this year or anytime soon unless they lose Draisaitl for an extended time. If he does explode his output I'd expect 40 goals and 100 assists more likely.

He's a step above the rest.

Tier 2

Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton Oilers – Draisaitl has missed two games over the past four seasons. In that period he has scored more than 50 goals twice and has had over 100 points three times (he had 84 games in 56 games in the shortened 2020-21 season). He is one of the most productive power play finishers in the NHL and has 71 PPGs over the past four seasons. In comparison, David Pastrnak is next at 58, Alex Ovechkin 56, Steven Stamkos 55, Chris Kreider 53, Mika Zibanejad 51 and Auston Matthews 50 over that same period. He doesn't play with McDavid that much at even-strength but still generates a lot of offense, but does have his detractors for his defensive play at times.

Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado Avalanche – Right up until starting to write this I had MacKinnon as Tier one in my head, but I found it too hard to justify a player who has never had a 100-point season and we are talking about fantasy here. For three years straight, he has averaged 1.35 points/game in the regular season so who am I to say that he won't do it for the fourth year in a row? You just need to decide how many games you think he will play.

Kirill Kaprizov – Minnesota Wild – If the Wild were wise, they would do what the Oilers have done with McDavid and Draisaitl and play him 80-85 percent on the power play. Last season they had him at 63.5 percent of the time and he managed 14 PPGs and 31 PPPs on a team that was 18th overall in the league.

Last season he had 47 goals and 61 assists, averaging 3.6 shots/game and with a shooting percentage of 16.3. His second-half numbers were 30 goals and 29 assists in 44 games which had him at a pace for 56 goals over 82 games. He should be able to reach 50 goals this year or next.

Tier 3

Jonathan Huberdeau – Calgary Flames – I think there will be an adjustment period for Huberdeau in Calgary this year and any notion of repeating 100 points will be very difficult to achieve. The three years prior he averaged between 1.11 and 1.13 points per game and that is a more attainable goal for him this season. He's only missed four games in five seasons, so look for 90-95 points this year if he can get to 30 points on the power play.

Patrick Kane – Chicago Blackhawks – Kane is another player who rarely misses games as he has missed only six games over the past seven seasons. His three-year average is 30 goals and 67 assists, a minus seven, 31 PPP, 303 SOG and a shooting percentage of 9.8. His plus-minus will no doubt take a beating this season as Chicago might be awful but Kane should still be able to generate 90 points in what might be his last season in Chicago.

Mikko Rantanen – Colorado Avalanche – Rantanen strikes me as a forward who could get more than 40 goals on a regular basis, but he topped out at 36 last season. His goal output seems to rely on the power play as he had 16 PPGs last season and 16 in 2018-19 when he had 31 goals overall. His even-strength goal scoring is limited but he has had three seasons of 55 assists or more, so could be considered more of a setup man. If healthy, he has been over a 100-point pace the last two years, but he hasn't played more than 75 games in any of the past four years. His three-year average is 1.18 points/game.

J.T. Miller – Vancouver Canucks – Last season the Canucks power play flowed through him on the way for Miller to go from a career-high of 16 PPAs to 30 last year. The only way Miller will get back to 90 points again is if this is still the case this year and the team has good success. What separates Miller from some names higher up on this list, is his physicality and the fact that he had 172 hits with 99 points. He did sign a seven-year extension at $8 million AAV, so he might lose some of that intensity this season which seems to happen to players but I think he slots in at 25-30 goals and 50-55 assists this year.

Jack Eichel – Vegas Golden Knights – Last year it was important that Eichel played 34 games after his neck surgery and was able to still generate 3.9 shots/game and play over 19 minutes per game. I think this puts a lot of people at ease on whether his game would get back to where it was. The next question is where was his game in Buffalo? When healthy in 2019-20 he had 1.15 pts/game and 36 goals in 68 games while averaging 3.3 shots/g. It might take him this season and next to get back to that level, but I believe he will get 30 goals and 70-75 points at a minimum this year if healthy. If Vegas is a very good team again he could get 85-90 points.

Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets – Of Connor's 47 goals last season, 36 of them were at even-strength, eight on the PP and three SH. In his five full NHL seasons, he has never scored less than 26 goals (and that was in 56 games). Last year he averaged 4.0 shots per game for the first time while having a 14.8 shooting percentage which is a little lower than his career average of 15.3. I think he has a 50-goal year in him at some point.

Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg Jets – Scheifele started out poorly last season with only eight points in his first 15 games and battled some injuries as well. Over his last 52 games of the season, he had 27 goals and 35 assists which would be a 98-point pace over a full year. He has had seasons of 82 and 84 points before, but he is certainly capable of 90 points this year or next. He's had six straight seasons of a point-per-game.

Tier 4

Elias Lindholm – Calgary Flames – Lindholm has only missed two games over the past five seasons. His three-year average is 35 goals and 37 assists while averaging 2.6 shots/g and posting a shooting percentage of 16.9 percent. He had 31 ES goals last season, so if plays with Huberdeau he could see some elevated shot totals and could get 40 goals once again.

Filip Forsberg – Nashville Predators – Forsberg hasn't played more than 69 games in any of the past five seasons. His three-year average is 0.96 pts/game, but he did break out for 42 goals and 42 assists in 69 games last season. It was just in time to secure an eight-year extension worth $8.5 million AAV. I'm not sure he can maintain an 18.6 shooting percentage with a career average of 12.9, so look for some reversion in goals this season.

Gabriel Landeskog – Colorado Avalanche – Landeskog hasn't played more than 54 games over the past three years and is already missing training camp as he is still recovering from off-season surgery. If healthy his three-year average would be 37 goals and 43 assists with 135 hits and 2.8 shots/g. I think we just have to assume he plays 60 games at 0.97 pts/game.

Nazem Kadri – Calgary Flames – Kadri had 87 points in 71 games last year with Colorado. His previous career-high was 61 points in the 12 seasons before, so we can expect a bit of a reversion in production, especially being on a new team in Calgary. His three-year average is 27 goals and 45 assists over 82 games with 3.1 shots/game and a 10.5 shooting percentage. He's not as physical a player as he had been in the past when he had seasons of over 140 hits.

Jason Robertson – Dallas Stars – Robertson remains unsigned as Dallas started their training camp this season. He had a great sophomore year with 41 goals and 38 assists in 74 games while averaging 3.0 shots/game and putting up an 18.6 shooting percentage. Any time a player misses the pre-season there is cause for concern as they usually take a few games to get back into a rhythm and are prone to injury. If he puts another season together like the last, he more than likely moves up a tier.

Roope Hintz – Dallas Stars – Having never played more than 60 games in his first three NHL seasons, Hintz played 80 games last year and put up great numbers with 37 goals and 35 assists while averaging 2.7 shots/game with a shooting percentage of 17.4. His three-year average over 82 games is 32 goals, 35 assists, 2.3 shots/g and a 16.7 shooting percentage. He can be a physical player as he averages about 94 hits/82 games.

Joe Pavelski – Dallas Stars – At 38-years of age, Pavelski still seems to be at the top of his game and I've tried to guess each of the past three years that he will slow down, but have been wrong. I'm not going to say he will slow down this season, although he will miss Jason Robertson if Robertson is out of the lineup for an extended time. His three-year average is 26 goals and 39 assists while averaging 2.3 shots/game and having a 13.8 shooting percentage. Now that I've said he won't slow down, he will.

Kevin Fiala – Los Angeles Kings – Fiala was traded to the Kings who have struggled to put up as much offense as Minnesota in recent years. Fiala has a three-year average of 32 goals and 43 assists with 3.1 shots/game and a shooting percentage of 12.7. He broke out for 85 points last year, but will be hard-pressed to duplicate this year.

Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles Kings – Kopitar is now 35-years-old but he is counted on to be the leader in more ways than one on this Kings team. Last season he had 19 goals and 48 assists in 81 games and he has only missed two games over the past five years. He hasn't scored more than 22 goals in the past four seasons, so that is probably his ceiling at this point, but he has a three-year average of 50 assists, so another 65-70 point year is within his reach. He is still a force in the faceoff circle and kills penalties and averages 66 hits and 65 blocked shots a year.

Timo Meier – San Jose Sharks – Meier had a breakout last season with 35 goals and 41 assists, while averaging 4.2 shots/game with a 10.7 shooting percentage. He also had 162 hits and 61 blocked shots which makes him even more valuable in multi-category pools. He did have a noticeable split with 47 points in his first 38 games and 29 points in his last 39 so it is something to take into consideration for this year as the Sharks won't be a strong team.  

Tomas Hertl – San Jose Sharks – Hertl is similar to Anze Kopitar in Los Angeles as he does a little bit of everything for his team. He has averaged 30 goals and 36 assists, 79 hits, 55 blocked shots, 769 faceoffs over the past three years. He kills penalties and has averaged 2.3 shots/game while having a shooting percentage of 15.0 percent. 30 goals is probably his ceiling, but he should be good for 60-65 points this year.

Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis Blues – If there is one player you want in your pool that has faceoff wins it will be O'Reilly as he has led the league over the past three years combined, just ahead of Bo Horvat, Kopitar and Patrice Bergeron. His three-year average is 23 goals and 46 assists, with 2.0 shots/game and a 13.7 shooting percentage. The emergence of Robert Thomas might take away some offense moving forward for O'Reilly so keep that in mind.

Vladimir Tarasenko – St. Louis Blues – After requesting a trade out of St. Louis and missing 60 games in 2019-20 and 32 in 2020-21, he played 75 games last year and posted career-highs with 48 assists and 82 points along with 34 goals. His three-year average based on 82 games is 31 goals and 49 assists, while averaging 2.9 shots/game with a 12.8 shooting percentage. He is an unrestricted free agent after this season, so we can expect him to have a good season. I would temper his games played to 70-75 and expect about a point per game.

Mark Stone – Vegas Golden Knights – Stone missed 45 games last season with back issues. It's a good sign that he has been practicing at training camp this season, but there is a question on whether he will see any pre-season game action. Vegas will more than likely take it slow and easy with him to make sure that he is available for 60 plus games this year. I would peg him at around 60-65 games and around a point per game. He's not a huge shooter with only about 2.1 shots/game and a 15.1 shooting percentage so 20-25 goals might be his ceiling.

Jonathan Marchessault – Vegas Golden Knights – Marchessault is sneaky productive in most categories. His three-year average is 29 goals, 36 assists, 85 hits and 3.4 shots/game with a 10.6 shooting percentage. His career-high is 30 goals, but if everything came together he could put up 35-40 goals, if he got more PP time.

Nikolaj Ehlers – Winnipeg Jets – Ehlers is the breakout player that we have been waiting a few years for, but he missed nine games in 2020-21 and 20 last season, so he just needs a healthy year to exceed his career-highs of 29 goals and 64 points. His three-year average for 82 games is 34 goals and 39 assists, averaging 3.3 shots/game and a 12.4 shooting percentage. Last season he averaged 4.0 shots/g and had 28 goals in 62 games which is a 37 goal pace.

Tier 5

Blake Wheeler – Winnipeg Jets – 36-years-old now and missed 17 games last season and six the year before but has been consistent in each of the past three years at 0.92 pts/g.

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Winnipeg Jets – He is betting on himself this season as he only signed a one-year deal with Winnipeg but will still be an RFA at the end of the year. He could get 30-35 goals and 60-70 points this year with over 100 hits.

Elias Pettersson – Vancouver Canucks – His three-year average is 33 goals and 41 assists on 2.4 shots/game and 16.5 shooting percentage. He will need to shoot more to ever get to 40 goals. He needs a full season at 75 points or more to move up a tier.

Bo Horvat – Vancouver Canucks – As mentioned under Ryan O'Reilly, Horvat is up among the league leaders in face off wins, just behind O'Reilly. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, but it would be a real surprise if the Canucks didn't re-sign him. There is a long-held belief in Vancouver that Horvat would be more productive with better wingers. I've been saying for a number of years that this isn't the case as his play relies on carrying the puck and he's just not a great distributor of the puck and he is what he is. He's averaged 30 goals and 30 assists, 90 hits, 984 faceoff wins with 2.6 shots/game and a shooting percentage of 14.3.

Evander Kane – Edmonton Oilers – Kane had 22 goals and 17 assists in 43 games as an Oiler last year in the regular season. Only three of his goals were on the power play, so there is some potential for him to get more production if given that coveted fifth spot on the Oiler's number one power play. His three-year average is 35 goals and 33 assists, with 185 hits on 3.4 shots/game with a shooting percentage of 12.5. He could get 40 goals this season if healthy and move up a tier.

Brayden Schenn – St. Louis Blues – Schenn missed 20 games last year but still managed at least 100 hits for the 11th year in a row. His three-year average is 28 goals and 38 assists on 1.8 shots/game with a shooting percentage of 18.0 percent.

Pavel Buchnevich – St. Louis Blues – Buchnevich had career-highs of 30 goals and 76 points last season in 73 games. If he can duplicate it again, he'll move up a tier.

Robert Thomas – St. Louis Blues – In 2020-21, Thomas had 12 points in 33 games. Last year he broke out with 20 goals and 56 assists in 72 games, without the benefit of being on the first unit of the powerplay. As with Buchnevich and others, if he duplicates he will move up. 20 goals is probably the ceiling for this setup man.

Jordan Kyrou – St. Louis Blues – I believe Kyrou will revert back closer to his three-year average of 24 goals and 39 assists, but he did have 75 points in 73 games last year. I'm just not sold on his overall game, but will be happy to be proven wrong in the coming year.

Logan Couture – San Jose Sharks – Couture should get 50-55 points and provide 90-95 hits with 50-60 blocked shots, which makes him more attractive for multi-category pools.

Matt Duchene – Nashville Predators – Duchene had 55 points in the 100 games he was able to play between

2019 and 2021 and was battling injuries. Last year in his 13th NHL season, he set career-high in goals with 43 and points with 86 with 16 PPGs and 29 PPPs and an 18.9 shooting percentage. His three-year average is 29 goals and 36 assists, which is a more comfortable production for this season. 

Joel Eriksson Ek – Minnesota Wild – Eriksson Ek elevated his offensive game last year with 26 goals and 24 assists on 2.9 shots/game and an 11.7 shooting percentage. He added 138 hits, 698 FOW and he kills penalties as well. 12 of his goals were on the power play, so he could have more goals to give this season at even strength. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Edmonton Oilers – One thing I've noticed about Nugent-Hopkins over the past two seasons is that his even strength production has declined. He is now relying on the power play and playing on the top unit over 80 percent of the time for 23 points last year and 20 the year before. Take away the PP and he produced 27 ES points last year in 63 games and 15 ES points in 52 games the year before that. That is a concern moving forward.

Clayton Keller – Arizona Coyotes – Keller had 63 points in 67 games before breaking his leg and ending his season. He's back 100% this year and will need to follow it up this season with another good year as he had three years in a row between 0.57 and 0.63 points/game. If he gets 65-70 points he might move up a tier.

Troy Terry – Anaheim Ducks – Terry broke out last season with 37 goals and 30 assists in 75 games with a 19.3 shooting percentage. His career average is 14.4 percent. If he gets 30 goals and 30 assists next year it will be a very good year for him.

Trevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks – Outside of the beautiful goals and assists Zegras had last season, he had 23 goals and 38 assists in 75 games. He still needs to improve his overall game. He needs to shoot more than 2.4 times per game and he will need to improve in the face off circle (39.8 percent), but he is well on the way to rocketing up this tier list. I'd be disappointed if he wasn't tier three in two or three years.

Andrew Mangiapane – Calgary Flames – Much like some other players listed in this tier, Mangiapane will need to duplicate his success to move up. He improved his shots/game from 1.6 to 2.3 and maintained his shooting percentage around 19 percent and finished with 35 goals in 82 games. Now do it again.

Adrian Kempe – Los Angeles Kings – See Mangiapane above, but Kempe had 3.2 shots/game so has a better chance to get back to 35 goals again. He also had 111 hits.

Ryan Hartman – Minnesota Wild – See Mangiapane and Kempe above. He had 34 goals and 31 assists last year on 2.9 shots/game and a 14.2 shooting percentage.

Mats Zuccarello – Minnesota Wild – Zuccarello is 35-years-old and just had his career-high of 79 points in 70 games with 28 of those points on the power play. He hasn't played more than 70 games in the past four seasons, so don't expect more than that.

Tier 6

This tier includes some forwards closer to the average in most categories and some younger players on the rise. I've highlighted the risers.

Adam Henrique, Frank Vatrano, Nick Schmaltz, Lawson Crouse, Tyler Toffoli, Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund, Phillip Danault, Zach Hyman, Tyler Seguin, Max Domi, Valeri Nichushkin, Mason Marchment, Matt Boldy, Mason McTavish, Barrett Hayton, Jonathan Toews, Alex Newhook, Jamie Benn, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Strome, Kailer Yamamoto, Alex Iafallo, Viktor Arvidsson, Marcus Foligno, Mikael Granlund, Ryan Johansen, Nino Niederreiter, Tanner Jeannot, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jared McCann, Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers, Connor Garland, Brock Boeser, Reilly Smith, William Karlsson, Chandler Stephenson.

Tier 7

This tier includes forwards who might be on the bubble for the top-nine but are riskier picks as there is little assurance of their output this year.

Frederick Gaudreau, Marco Rossi, Jordan Greenway, William Eklund, Brandon Saad, Jaden Schwartz, Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev, Jordan Eberle, Tanner Pearson, Ilya Mikheyev, Andrei Kuzmenko. 

Any tier after this would be considered waiver material, but please let me know if you think we've missed anyone or miss-tiered some forwards.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.