My last few Ramblings have discussed projections I've made for the 2022-23 fantasy hockey season and we're continuing that trend today. On Tuesday, we went over some players that I wrote of often throughout the summer and how they fared in my projections. Today will be more of the same but we're going to focus solely on defencemen.

The nature of the defence position has changed a lot over the last 10 years. It was 2013 when Douglas Murray – 64 career points and 412 PIMs in 518 career games – was traded for two second round picks (I believe one was conditional). Just seven years later, Devon Toews was traded for the same return, though the Islanders were also facing a cap crunch. Toews is now regarded as one of the best defencemen in hockey, finishing top-12 in Norris Trophy voting each of the last two seasons. Being able to skate, move the puck, and finding lanes with edgework are now traits that are valued over cross-checking an opponent to the ice in the corner. It has been a welcome change.

Let's go over some of the blue line values that stuck out to me by my projections. As a refresher (or introduction for those who haven't read my recent Ramblings), we're going to be using a projection metric called Standings Gained Points (SGP). In short, we calculate how much value a player provides at a specific position over a replacement-level player given their projection, sum up the impact in each fantasy category, and that gives us a single number – the SGP – that we can use to compare across positions. Today is about defencemen being reviewed so all that really matters is replacement value, but that is how we get to these numbers.

We are using a 12-team league with a multi-cat scoring system of goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks, and hits. It is also assuming five blue liners per team with one on the bench, so 72 total rearguards drafted, with an 82-game projection for every player. We are also going to skip some higher-end options we've already reviewed in recent Ramblings like Cale Makar, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Aaron Ekblad, and the like.

The final thing I will mention is plus/minus. Some leagues still use it, though hopefully most have moved away from it at this point. All I will say is that the bad plus/minus defencemen tend to be guys from bad teams who play a lot of minutes. It isn't always that exact case, but last year we had names like Seth Jones, Filip Hronek, and Jamie Drysdale among the worst ratings. It's not always the case – John Klingberg's minus-28 was in a reduced role, as was Keith Yandle's minus-47 – but it's a good rule of thumb. The opposite is also true, as Devon Toews, Cale Makar, Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad, Justin Faulk, and MacKenzie Weegar were all top-10 by this measure. Just something to keep in mind for those still using plus/minus.

Okay let's talk blue liners.

Zach Werenski

One player who seems to be getting early fantasy hype is Zach Werenski, and for good reason. He has averaged 54 points/82 games over the last three years and is coming into his age-25 season. Columbus added Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner is healthy, Patrike Laine returned to form, youngsters Kent Johnson and Yegor Chinakhov (maybe even Kirill Marchenko) should be impactful offensively, and Werenski is the unquestioned number-1 backing all of them up. With his ADP consistently outside the top-12 defencemen, he's one of very few options in that range that should skate 25+ minutes a night with top PP time. My projections have him as the 12^th in blue liner value with this scoring system.

The big question is the power play. The Jackets were 25^th in goals per 60 minutes on the PP in 2021-22 and Werenski's 82-game PPP pace was for 17 points. That isn't good enough for a guy we hope can crack the 60-point mark. Having Gaudreau and Laine should help this team improve with the man advantage and being able to rack up 25+ PPPs is certainly possible. But "should" and "possible" doesn't mean "will" and that is the remaining piece to Werenski's fantasy puzzle. His lack of physicality (90 hits in his last 166 games) means he has to be a heavy point producer to finish top-12 among fantasy blue liners. The power play will dictate that and there's just no telling which way that cookie will crumble. He's risky but the upside is there, even in leagues counting hits.

Darnell Nurse

Whether to draft Evan Bouchard or Tyson Barrie is a question a lot of fantasy owners are struggling with. Whichever of the two runs the top PP unit for the majority of the season will have a lot of fantasy value, with the other less so. I lean Bouchard if only because his peripherals will be much stronger, but the debate is there.

I would offer, instead, to just draft Darnell Nurse. He has averaged 46 points/82 games over the last two seasons and his monster minutes guarantee huge peripheral numbers. Without injuries, he won't get the valuable PP minutes and that always is a negative, but he's one of very few guys who could post 200 shots, 150 blocks, and 200 hits, to go with 40-plus points.

With that said, he's still coming in as my 20^th defenceman projected, which outstrips his ADP in most spots. The complete lack of PPPs is an issue and though he scores goals, his lack of assists means his assist value is the second-lowest of any of my top-20 defencemen (Alex Pietrangelo is slightly lower). Being a drag in PPPs and just above water in assists means he's not really helping in one-third of fantasy categories. Beware of falling in love with the peripherals.

Jakob Chychrun

This is one of the most interesting fantasy defencemen this year. He was last year, too, until his injury all but assured he wouldn't get traded. His trade request stands so expect him to get moved at some point to a much better team than Arizona. He is just outside my top-25 defencemen, coming in at 27^th, which is right in line with his Underdog Fantasy ADP.

His fantasy problem is really two problems bundled into one, like getting a blown-out tire while racing at 130 KM/h on the highway. Maybe you don't crash, and that's always good, but there's certainly going to be a lot of damage to your vehicle. That problem for Chychrun is that he's not expected to run Arizona's power play, and that limits his upside. The team could run a 3F-2D setup, and that might change things a bit, but we want defencemen running a 4F-1D PP by themselves. He is unlikely to get that in Arizona unless Shayne Gostisbehere is traded, hurt, or falls on his face.

That rolls into our next problem: even if he's traded to a better team, will he run the power play there? He could go to a contender like Florida, Carolina, or Nashville and not run the power play. His even strength production should improve, but it doesn't help his PPP problem. Also, what if he's not traded until the deadline? Are we going to really draft Chychrun hoping to get 15 great games out of him at the end of the season? Head-to-head players, weigh in.

If he slides outside the top-30 defencemen drafted, I can understand taking him. I'm just not sure the upside is there yet unless he's running a power play. You're drafting Darnell Nurse but with worse hits and blocks.

Sean Durzi

Durzi's case is one of fortune, in a sense. Los Angeles's blue line went through a lot of injuries last year and that pushed him to the top PP unit for an extended period, including heavy TOI. He was playing over 22 minutes a game over the final two months of the season compared to 17:28 over his first 36 games. His shots and points per game all increased with the TOI and that is what is drawing fantasy owners to him this year.

However, Los Angeles seems healthy. Sean Walker is in training camp having missed almost all of 2021-22, Matt Roy is in the mix again, Drew Doughty is back in full force, with Brandt Clarke one of the top blue line prospects in camp as well. Add in Mikey Anderson and Alex Edler, and Durzi could well see himself back to bottom-pair minutes unless (until?) injuries hit hard again.

My projections assume some PP1 time for Durzi this year which is what's floating his value to roughly a top-50 defenceman. With that assumption comes the obvious issue: if he doesn't get any meaningful PP1 minutes, he's basically replacement-level, which means outside the top-70 defencemen. Where to draft Durzi basically comes down to whether you think he can get 20-30 games' worth of PP1 time.  

Samuel Girard

Having missed most of the Cup run due to injury, fantasy owners could be forgiven for overlooking Samuel Girard. He has still played to a 42-point/82-game pace over the last three years and is going into his age-24 season. The best is yet to come for a guy who showed a lot of playmaking/transition prowess early in his career. My projections have him as my 54^th defenceman at the moment, or very draftable in 12-team leagues.

Of course, we wouldn't bring him up if there weren't some problems here. He's a long way away from ever getting PP1 time so that immediately caps his upside. I do have players ranked around him that could see PP1 time with nothing more than underperformance from a teammate (Mike Matheson and Jamie Drysdale, for instance). Girard likely needs at least two key injuries for that to happen and that hurts him a lot.

What also hurts are his lack of peripherals. Despite skating nearly 22 minutes a game these last three years, he's averaged just 0.77 hits and 1.36 shots per game. Pacing for around 63 hits and 111 shots for a non-PP defenceman isn't much.

There is also Bowen Byram. With Girard injured in the postseason, Byram really stepped up and flat-out controlled some games. He looked like the guy that went 4^th overall in the 2019 Draft and it's not impossible that Byram eventually overtakes him on the depth chart. Forget PP1 minutes; by January, Girard might not even get PP2 minutes. Even on an elite team, there are only so many even strength goals to go around. He is being properly valued but I'd rather swing on someone with more upside.

Let's go through the next few players a bit more quickly.

Gustav Forsling

He has been paired with Aaron Ekblad in the preseason and we need look no further than MacKenzie Weegar's production in Florida for a comparable. Even in a second-pair role last year, Forsling paced for over 40 points and that was with zero (0) PPPs. He could end up running the second unit with top-pair even strength time. His peripherals won't stand out too much and that hurts his value a lot in multi-cat leagues. But he does have 50-point upside, and that's enough for a guy who can be had outside the top-50 defence picks. A lot will come down to him being able to lock the PP2 role, or whether that goes to Brandon Montour. For what it's worth, he was PP2 in a preseason game Monday without Montour in the lineup.

Hampus Lindholm

With Charlie McAvoy expected to miss at least a month, Lindholm could see a lot of minutes early in the season. How valuable those minutes are without McAvoy and Brad Marchand in the lineup is certainly up for debate, but he was getting over two minutes a game on the PP down the stretch with Boston last season. He is at least in consideration for early PP1 minutes and could see a TOI bump. The problem is he's being overvalued, in my estimation, as his Yahoo! ADP is a top-50 defenceman and I have him closer to 75^th. Leagues will vary in this regard but if I'm in a 12-team league, he's not a starter, unless it's to get some early-season juice out of him until the McAvoy return.

K'Andre Miller

For Miller to take the next step in fantasy value, we need to see a lot more out of him offensively. He had 20 points while playing all 82 games, which is fine with his peripheral production, but doesn't really separate him from other peripheral monsters. If he puts up 25 points, what really separates him from Ben Chiarot, or Radko Gudas, or Erik Cernak? Not much, and those guys have much longer track records than Miller does. His defence took a big step last year, but his offence did not. Some owners may take a leap of faith here but it's hard to see him as a top-72 defenceman (rostered in 12-team leagues) unless his peripherals continue to climb, or his offence takes a leap. With a young defenceman, it's certainly possible, and those are swings worth taking at the end of a fantasy draft. Just don't over-draft him.