Ramblings: Hart Injury News, Comparing Jarvis and Boldy (Oct 1)

Ian Gooding

2022-10-01

According to Sam Carchidi of PHI Hockey Now, Carter Hart says he'll be ready for the Flyers' opening-night game on October 13. Hart has been taking shots at practice, but he has still not been cleared for contact drills. Hart's injury has not been stated, although it's worth mentioning that he was shut down with just under a month to go last season because of a lower-body injury.

Hart's ADP in Yahoo leagues is just under 170, although fantasy teams seem confident enough in him that he is being drafted in 96% of Yahoo leagues. In Fantrax, Hart has a 177 ADP while being drafted in 86% of leagues. Hart is still only 24 years of age, so there's still time for him to rebound to some degree (positive GSAA over his first two seasons, negative GSAA over his last two seasons). However, the current state of the Flyers means that those drafting Hart should limit their expectations.

At one time, Hart was the most sought-after goalie in keeper leagues, but that is no longer the case with him sitting at 20th in the Keeper League Goalie Rankings. To research goalie development further, I looked up goalies from his draft year and discovered that no goalie drafted during his draft year of 2016 has come close to playing as many games as Hart (146 GP), nor is ranked higher in the goalie rankings. From the 2017 draft, Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger have moved ahead of Hart in the rankings, although both have played fewer NHL games. No one notable (at least so far) was drafted in 2018. Spencer Knight, who has also pulled ahead of Hart in the rankings, was drafted in 2019.

I'll leave it there based on how long it takes for goalie to develop, but I'll draw three conclusions from this draft information: 1) Hart was rushed to the NHL (he was just 20 when he made his NHL debut), 2) There's still time for him to get his career back on track, and 3) Getting to elite status will be a tall order for Hart.

Between searches on Frozen Tools and season preview articles I've read, it appears that Seth Jarvis is one of the most popular sleeper picks in fantasy leagues. Jarvis's average ADP between Yahoo and Fantrax is around 170, which seems relatively low. That being said, the fact that he's roughly 90% rostered in both formats suggests that someone in most leagues is on to the idea of taking a flier on him.

Jarvis finished the 2021-22 season in the top 10 in rookie scoring with 40 points in 68 games. That's not a standout number compared to say, Trevor Zegras, Michael Bunting, or another name that I'll list shortly. Yet because of the injury to Max Pacioretty, Jarvis is considered a strong candidate to receive top-line duty and first-unit power-play minutes. Should that happen, the Jarvis pick should really pay off.

For more on Jarvis, listen to the Five Hole Fantasy Podcast that I appeared on earlier this week. Jarvis is discussed at about the 7:30 mark.

Because they are listed 1-2 in the Frozen Tools Top Searches and because they are both rookies, I'll compare Jarvis to Matt Boldy. It's a simple comparison, because both have played only one season.

NameGPGAPTSSH%PTS/GPPPSOG+/-HitsBkS
MATT BOLDY4715243913.30.8310113172324
SETH JARVIS6817234015.50.596110116921

Compare Players: Boldy/Jarvis

Boldy was definitely the stronger of the two players in their rookie seasons. I wanted to check this to find out if Boldy justifies his 111 ADP in Yahoo. The two sophomores-to-be are a little closer in Fantrax ADP, with Boldy being drafted at 145 there. Obviously you're taking Boldy ahead of Jarvis in a single-season draft, but the Yahoo ADP for Boldy seems a little high. That may be why I haven't really targeted Boldy in any of my mock drafts. If Boldy is more of a Line 2/PP2 option for the Wild while Jarvis is Line 1/PP1 on the Canes, then Jarvis has the potential to surpass Boldy.

Some preseason action:

Urho Vaakanainen was taken off the ice on a stretcher after crashing into the boards during Friday's game. The Ducks offered an update, which seems like good news.

It's only preseason, but Jack Eichel's shot looks just fine to me. Also, from a distance the new Sharks uniforms look like old Hartford Whalers uniforms.

A few Predators filled the scoresheet in their last game before flying to the Czech Republic for their two-game series with the Sharks. Matt Duchene recorded a five-point game (2 G, 3 A), while Tanner Jeannot recorded four points (2 G, 2 A) in a 7-1 win over Tampa Bay.

I completed a 14-team Yahoo mock draft on Thursday night. Unlike Wednesday night's draft, Yahoo emailed the results to me. Below is the team I picked, which you could assume are players that I like in the spots that I drafted them in. Full results are at my blog Goods Fantasy Hockey.

1-8: Igor Shesterkin (NYR – G)

2-21: J.T. Miller (Van – C,LW)

3-36: Alex DeBrincat (Ott – LW)

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4-49: Morgan Rielly (Tor – D)

5-64: Kevin Fiala (LA – LW,RW)

6-77: Patrik Laine (Cls – LW,RW)

7-92: Noah Dobson (NYI – D)

8-105: Darnell Nurse (Edm – D)

9-120: Alexandar Georgiev (Col – G)

10-133: David Perron (Det – RW)

11-148: Tage Thompson (Buf – C)

12-161: Tomas Hertl (SJ – C)

13-176: Blake Wheeler (Wpg – RW)

14-189: Radko Gudas (Fla – D)

15-204: Tyson Barrie (Edm – D)

16-217: Matty Beniers (Sea – C)

I know I completely abandoned the Zero G strategy with the Shesterkin pick first. Yet after that pick, I vowed not to pick a goalie until after Pick 100. As well, Shesterkin was at the top of the Fantasy Hockey Geek-generated rankings that I was using. I remember years ago drafting two goalies in the first five rounds of a draft, so at least I wasn't doing that. Trying to be safe at the goalie position is death nowadays. Cale Makar and Kirill Kaprizov were the two picks before mine, and I for sure would have grabbed one of them had they fallen to me at #8.

True to my word, I waited until pick 120 to draft another goalie. On this one, I remembered one of TJ from Five Hole Fantasy Hockey's breakout picks in Georgiev. You can listen to the podcast here, where Georgiev is brought up at about the 15-minute mark.

The sweet spot for drafting defensemen seems to be at around Rounds 7-8, which in this draft worked out to be between picks 82 and 116. A total of 13 defensemen were drafted in those rounds, which amounted to about one defenseman per team over nearly two and a half rounds. I helped the cause by drafting both Dobson and Nurse here. Nurse has an ADP of just under 100 in Yahoo leagues, but a rankings system like one that Geek would generate would list Nurse as much higher because of his decent scoring and high peripherals like shots, hits, and blocked shots. That's the kind of value that you should be mining in your draft.

Maybe you think Tage Thompson is going to be a bust this season, and I won't argue with you about that. Yet I also think drafting him in this spot is solid value. Same with Hertl, Wheeler, and Barrie from a pure points perspective, and Gudas from how he can dominate the hits category.

I took my own advice with my last pick. For more on why I like Beniers even in single-season leagues, you can go to about the 23:30 mark of the podcast.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
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Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

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