Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

The preseason is an excellent time to sell high on prospects who are seeing preferential deployment in the early going. While the odds are that that deployment won't last, poolies are always looking for the next big thing and will likely find it hard not to be swayed at least a bit by the hype.

Before getting to a few players that fit this bill, I want to describe a concept I call Strategic Overpay that can help you win trades in fantasy.

Strategic Overpaying. I know, I know (#3: Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to) but in keeper leagues this is a strategy that can make sense.#HockeyTwitter#FantasyHockey

— Ferengihockey (@ferengihockey) December 20, 2021

It feels a bit pompous to put a name to something that many poolies do all the time but regardless: Strategic Overpay is when you "overpay" by adding players or prospects to your side of a trade offer so that it looks lopsided in the other manager's favour—but then replace them for free with comparable players off the waiver wire.

Most managers (myself included) love to win trades cleanly and will often reject offers that are thoughtful and balanced because the value gained is too subtle or abstract. The main benefit of appearing to overpay is that you can more likely get deals done that would otherwise fall apart in negotiations. When you factor those free players into the equation, trades can shift from an overpay to a win—or at least a lateral move that nets you a desired player. The key to executing this strategy correctly is carefully mining the wire and keeping your eye on viable replacements as you're sending out trade offers and then including your prospective waiver adds into your mental calculus.

To outline Strategic Overpay, I'll share a few deals I made this off-season in a 12-team, keep 25 league (G, A, +/-, S, PIM, PPP, H, W, G.A.A., SV%) to accelerate out of a rebuild into contention. In italics are the players I picked up for free off the waiver wire.

Trade #1

Gave

Johnny Gaudreau

Alex Newhook

Devon Levi

Received

Jacob Trouba

Filip Forsberg

Danila Yurov

Strauss Mann

Analysis

I alluded to this trade in last week's article because adding Levi to my side sealed the deal for the other manager. The reigning Mike Richter (Best NCAA Goalie) award winner has a lot of hype right now and can be an attractive throw-in. However talented he is, the reality is that he is likely five or so years away from making an impact at the NHL level.

I signed Mann off the wire because he has a sparkling resume that looks very similar to Levi—both excelled in college and represented their countries at the most recent Olympics—but he's a few years older and should see action with the Sharks' AHL affiliate this year with a chance for NHL call ups. I agree with Dobber's philosophy on prospect goalies in that they should exclusively be trade chips unless they're older and close to seeing NHL action.

Yurov similarly helped offset the loss of Newhook. Although the Colorado forward is in the NHL already and has a ton of potential, Yurov had the highest star potential in the 2022 class and is an excellent stash.

Because Mann and Yurov essentially replaced Levi and Newhook, the remaining pieces in the trade were Gaudreau for Trouba and Forsberg—a slam dunk win for me given the multi cat format of the league. Gaudreau easily boasts the highest point potential of the trio but is light on hits and PIMs while Trouba is a beast in multi-cat and Forsberg brings a ton of hits and shots on top of solid production.

Trade #2

Gave

Adam Boqvist

Connor McMichael

Received

Evgeni Malkin

Isaac Howard

Analysis

Although it hurt to give up two young players on star trajectories with short 1–3-year timelines for the oft-injured Malkin, this move helps me quite a lot in the short term. The Penguins superstar still has the potential to exceed a point per game over the games that he does play. When healthy, he will provide a significant boost across a number of categories. Boqvist is also a Band-Aid Boy in training, and that fact plus the crowded Columbus blue line (Werenski, Bean, Jiricek, Mateychuk) was enough for me to be okay with letting him go.

Howard was functionally—though not technically—part of the trade given that I was able to sign him to the farm slot vacated by McMichael. Although McMichael is the more established asset, there is not a huge gap between him and Howard. In fact, as with Yurov and Newhook, Howard currently has a stronger prospect profile overall. I would have felt good about the trade as is but the addition of Howard put it over the top for me.

Trade #3

Gave

Matt Dumba

Alex Turcotte

Jacob Perreault

14th overall pro pick (Casey DeSmith)

Received

Jamie Benn

Brent Burns

3rd overall pro pick (Mackenzie Blackwood)

Rodion Amirov

Arseni Gritsyuk

Analysis

On the surface, this trade made my team a lot older because I gave up Dumba (28 years old), Turcotte (21), and Perreault (20) to get back Benn (33) and Burns (37), both of whom are well past their primes at this point. But as long as you recognize that Benn is never winning the Art Ross again, he is a solid 50-point player who competently stuffs multiple categories. Likewise, Burns is in line to receive a ton of power-play time for a potent Hurricanes offence and should help my team quite a lot in the short term. Dumba is a solid 40+ point defender who I believe still has another offensive gear but he won't outperform Burns, and he is not a huge loss.

Both pro picks in this trade turned out to be goalies, and I still see a Blackwood rebound in the cards playing behind a stronger Devils team in 2022-23—even with Vitek Vanecek in the picture. DeSmith is an average backup at best, so I view the pick swap as a win.

Shifting focus to the prospects, Turcotte likely has a lower ceiling than it seemed when he was drafted fifth overall in 2019 but he should stick with the Kings this year and may round out as a solid third-line center with upside. Perreault is known for his high-end shot but his name value may have outstripped his actual value at this point. He has been inconsistent as a 20-year-old AHLer and continues to struggle on the defensive side of things, which raises concerns about translatability.

In Amirov and Gritsyuk, I was able to grab two prospects who have solid name recognition and upside and who should make decent trade bait down the line. Although Amirov was diagnosed with a brain tumour last year, leading to many poolies cutting ties with him, his treatment has apparently been progressing well and he has been practicing again with his KHL club. As Toronto's 15th overall pick in 2020, he will have a great deal of value if he can move past his health issues and resume his promising trajectory.

When the dust settles, it's very possible that moving Turcotte and Perreault for Amirov and Gritsyuk will turn out to be, at worst, a lateral move. From that perspective, this trade looks like a solid win-now move overall that helps me at all three positions and also won't negatively impact my team's longer-term prospects.

To sum up, Strategic Overpay is when you add extra players/prospects to a deal to push it over the top because you know you can pick up replacements of comparable value off the wire for free. While the other manager will only see what's on the table, they are not seeing the entire equation. Once you add in the "secret" players after the trade, things should balance out in your favour instead of being an overpay the other way.

—

Simon Holmstrom (NYI)

Holmstrom has been generating an intriguing amount of buzz in the preseason playing opposite Mathew Barzal on the Isles' top line.

HELL of a setup by Simon Holmstrom for Barzal.#isles pic.twitter.com/05KbvRsZwz

— Michel Anderson (@TLOMitch) September 27, 2022

Even though preseason line combos are not to be trusted, Holmstrom has played with Barzal and Zach Parise for a few games and scrimmages in a row now and is clearly impressing the coaches.

#Isles HC Lane Lambert on Simon Holmstrom:

"I liked him, I thought he made some plays. He looked comfortable and poised. I thought he looked good tonight. I thought he was one of our better players."https://t.co/j6AOtzoXwd

— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) September 27, 2022

A former first round pick from 2019, Holmstrom struggled after transitioning to the AHL in his Draft+1 year: he scored only 22 points over his first 70 games as a pro, dealing with injury trouble along the way. He has always had above average tools, particularly his skating and puck handling, and he plays a defensively responsible game without any glaring holes. But the offence has been slow to come.

This past year he finally broke through to the tune of 43 points in 68 games—not earth-shattering numbers but promising nonetheless. Even if he ends up getting sent back down to Bridgeport, this has been a promising audition for the young Swede that bodes well for his future success with the Islanders organization.

Xavier Simoneau (MON)

Simoneau is unstoppable. All he does is beat the odds and play dominant hockey. He stands out with his nonstop motor, sneaky shot, and incredible puck protection and has been turning heads this year at the Canadiens' training camp and early-season exhibition games. As of the time of publication, Simoneau had not yet been cut from the Canadiens roster, though he will likely be demoted before too much longer.

Starting to sound like a broken record here, but you always want players with no chance of actually making the team to leave an impression, and Xavier Simoneau is leaving one hell of an impression.

— Arpon Basu (@ArponBasu) September 30, 2022

If you're not yet familiar with Simoneau, the "no chance of actually making the team" comment stems from the fact that he is 5-7, 174 lbs and went undrafted for two years before the Habs took a chance on him in the sixth round in 2021. This past season was astoundingly his fifth year in the QMJHL where he has routinely been one of the most difficult to play against and offensively dominant players in the league (albeit as an overager).

Overagers should post strong results, but Xavier Simoneau's (MTL) suggests he should be a great pro off the hop.

1) Track record: He's posted top-10 playmaking results and 85th percentile-and-up defensive results in each of the four seasons I've tracked him. pic.twitter.com/kBp49iuS3e

— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) September 9, 2022

Xavier Simoneau was once again one of the best QMJHL player this season, finishing with the 2nd best statistical profile amongst all forwards.

The #GoHabsGo prospect notably accumulated 24 goals and 86 points in 48 games. pic.twitter.com/XdFM7U2OLC

— Andy Lehoux (@Andylehoux1) May 12, 2022

Simoneau scored 86 points in 48 games (1.79 ppg) this past year for Charlottetown in what should have been his Draft+3 year but was technically the year after he was drafted. That performance was enough to leverage a one-year "show me" contract with the Laval Rockets, Montreal's AHL affiliate.

On top of his high-end hockey sense, passing ability, and gritty compete level, Simoneau has excellent straight-line speed that really makes him stand out on the ice:

How did Xavier Simoneau go undrafted again? I clocked him at well over 35 km/h on this skate through the NZ.

That's very fast. pic.twitter.com/KsV4YbEf8M

— Will Scouch (@Scouching) October 10, 2019

If he makes an early impression in Laval, and I'm betting he will, don't be surprised to see him playing a sporadic depth role for the Habs throughout 2022-23.

Andrei Kuzmenko (VAN)

Curtis Rines already dug into what to expect from Kuzmenko in a previous Journey article, so I won't spill too much more digital ink here. But hot damn the 26-year-old Russian is off to a hot start with the Canucks after finishing second in KHL scoring last year with 53 points in 45 games.

The Hughes pass 🤯
The Kuzmenko goal 🤩 pic.twitter.com/wACyF4vT7d

— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) September 30, 2022

Kuzmenko scored two goals and notched an assist in his first preseason game. That total included two power-play points, so he's seeing critical time with the man advantage too. Rines projected Kuzmenko to have 60-point upside if everything breaks right. So far, it looks like he will lock down a top six role with the Canucks and be in a strong position to push for 60+, making him an intriguing player to target later on in drafts.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.