Ramblings: Breakout Players Like Addison, Chytil, Beniers, and Wahlstrom; Ingram to Arizona; Update on Hall – October 11

Michael Clifford

2022-10-11

Though the regular season started on the weekend with a pair of Sharks/Predators games in Czechia, the campaign starts in earnest today. We have two confrontations today (Tuesday) with a fuller slate coming on Wednesday. That makes this Ramblings my last of the unofficial offseason.

For anyone that is waiting to draft, our 2022-23 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is a great resource to quickly get up to speed on the players you need to know. There are projections, lineup combinations, prospect discussions, articles, and a whole lot more. It has been updated all through the preseason and that gives you, dear reader, the most up-to-date information.

Today gives me one last chance to provide a bit of draft advice. Very quickly, I will go through all 32 teams and offer one player that could break out this season. It is a very common article to write in this fantasy space, but it also gives me one chance to provide the players that I've been hyping all offseason, be they rookies or established guys with a new role/location. We will assume multi-cat formats (G/A/PPP/SOG/H/BLK) and not go absurdly deep into rosters. Good? Great, grand, wonderful, NO YELLING ON THE BUS.

Anaheim Ducks – Mason McTavish

This is an obvious one to start with, but the team saw a few breakouts last season and he's at the top of the Calder Trophy race. The young forward stood out at various international competitions in 2022 and could get a top-6 role at even strength.

Arizona Coyotes – Matias Maccelli

Though Arizona is expected to be quite bad again and may trade their best defencemen this season, the future core is starting to make their appearances. Maccelli had a monster AHL season in 2021-22 with 57 points in 47 games. It is only a matter of the 22-year-old getting regular minutes for a team that could shuffle its roster a lot this year.

Boston Bruins – Jake DeBrusk

On a team laden with veterans, there are few breakout contenders. Though DeBrusk had a good second half last season, he didn't have career-highs in goals, assists, or points. With all the team's early injuries, he could finally have the best season of his career.

Speaking of those Boston injuries, some good news on the Taylor Hall front:

If he can be back for the start of their season, it will help the top-6 immensely.

Buffalo Sabres – Jack Quinn

There is a lot of love for Owen Power to win the Calder Trophy, but he will be kept off the top PP unit unless there's an injury to Rasmus Dahlin. Quinn has been consistently in the top-6 through the preseason and was phenomenal in the AHL. He just needs to stick at the top of the lineup past an early-season tryout.  

Calgary Flames – Oliver Kylington

Another team loaded with veterans, Kylington may be in tough for minutes with the addition of MacKenzie Weegar. His tracking stats (via Corey Sznajder) were excellent last year and the team looks as dangerous as ever. Even limited ice time could see him threaten 40 points. This is assuming whatever personal matter he’s dealing with has him in the lineup sooner rather than later, too.

Carolina Hurricanes – Seth Jarvis

In a perfect world for Carolina, all of Jarvis, Martin Necas, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi take big leaps forward. Jarvis had a stellar rookie season with very good underlying numbers and has often been skating on Sebastian Aho's wing. He very much has 25-goal potential.

Chicago Blackhawks – Taylor Raddysh

The manner that Chicago has constructed this awful roster means there's unlikely to be any breakouts, but Raddysh at least has a competent NHL playmaker on his line (Max Domi). He could see a lot of minutes once players start getting traded in furtherance of the tank job.

Colorado Avalanche – Bowen Byram

Alex Newhook is going to get every opportunity for a second-line role, but it was Byram who looked phenomenal for Colorado in the postseason, especially after Samuel Girardi's injury. The team could easily score enough to support 40 points for him even without prime PPTOI.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Kent Johnson

Sometimes, we have to go with the chalk, and Johnson could have every opportunity to make a significant offensive impact, but he will have to work his way up the lineup. He has the skills to do it and could certainly be in the Calder Trophy running come April.

Dallas Stars – Jake Oettinger

My hopes for Denis Gurianov breaking out in Dallas are dwindling and there may not be (m)any rookies that are heavily relied upon (more on that later). Oettinger is generally a high-ish pick among fantasy goalies, but he still has to prove he's a top-end puck-blocker. This is the year he does it.

Detroit Red Wings – Jakub Vrana

Though he's reached 20+ goals twice, he's never had more than 25 and has maxed out at 52 points. A lack of a top PP role remains a constant issue with him, but he has all the talent needed to be a 30-goal scorer. Detroit has finally filled out its roster and with a healthy year, Vrana is primed to take a leap.

Edmonton Oilers – Evan Bouchard

He did post 43 points last year but saw his role diminish as the season wore on. With that said, Bouchard is ready to really stamp his impact on the league and have a huge offensive season. This could be a 50-point, 250-shot season for the soon-to-be 23-year-old blue liner.

Florida Panthers – Gustav Forsling

He managed a career-best 37 points in 2021-22, with a career-high in TOI, but should exceed both marks as the replacement on the top pair for the traded Weeger. The additional ice time for a player with excellent offensive impacts should see him exceed 40 points.  

Los Angeles Kings – Arthur Kaliyev

There is an argument for Brandt Clarke here, but my belief is he has more roadblocks to meaningful offensive minutes than Kaliyev. By November, we could easily see the potential sharpshooter slide to the top power-play unit. A regular middle-6 role could lead to a big sophomore season. It is all about how the lineup shakes out.

Minnesota Wild – Calen Addison

There are a number of top-end breakout options for Minnesota, but we will stick with the defenceman that managed 58 points in 77 career AHL games. He has long been touted as a great puck mover and Minnesota needs a steady puck mover on the top power play. He has 40-point potential even playing on the third pair at even strength.

Montreal Canadiens – Cole Caufield

This is another obvious pick considering he played to a 28-goal pace in his rookie season, but he and Nick Suzuki looked like different players once Martin St. Louis was hired. A healthy lineup, even if it's not deep on the blue line, should help Caufield crack the 30-goal mark.

On the health front for Montreal:

Mike Matheson being out to start the year would be a blow to a team without much blue line depth, though it would give younger guys like Arber Xhekaj and Kaiden Guhle a regular season tryout to stick with the big club.

Nashville Predators – Eeli Tolvanen

Nashville already started its season and my thought had been that Philip Tomasino was primed to break out. Well, he wasn't in the lineup for either of Nashville's two games while Tolvanen had a pair of points. Given he's at least on the roster and can put up a lot of hits, Tolvanen is the choice here.

New Jersey Devils – Alexander Holtz

His role on the team is tenuous but he has all the offensive skill in the world to make a big impact for the Devils. Holtz has been skating with Jack Hughes and if Holtz can Lucas Raymond his way to the top-6 all year, he has 20-goal potential as a rookie.

New York Islanders – Oliver Wahlstrom

No team's preseason has made me more nervous than the Islanders'; it hasn't been a treat to see Zach Parise skating with Mathew Barzal. If he can find his finishing touch, even in a muted role, Wahlstrom has 20-goal upside with a bevy of hits. Better lineup slotting (i.e. with Barzal) would be nice.

New York Rangers – Filip Chytil

We may see Alexis Lafrenière, Vitali Kravtsov, or Kaapo Kakko in the top-6 often, but it was Chytil who seemed to really turn a corner offensively in 2021-22. It would not be shocking to see him have a Yanni Gourde-like season with 20 goals and 45 points from the third line.

Ottawa Senators – Thomas Chabot

Most of Ottawa's young stars have already had a breakout and Chabot himself had a 55-point season in 2018-19. Injuries and a team that wasn't deep offensively has kept him in the 50-point/82-game range for a while now. With his heavy minutes and a reloaded Ottawa roster, cracking 60 points is in the offing. An honourable mention to Shane Pinto.

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Philadelphia Flyers – Joel Farabee

The Flyers could be in for a tough season and it's an open question how some of their players take to John Tortorella's coaching methods. Farabee's immediate concern is a lack of a proven NHL centre until Sean Couturier returns, but he has the shooting talent for a 25-goal season. It'll be fun to see how he and Tortorella get along.

Pittsburgh Penguins – Tristan Jarry

Like Boston, there are a lot of veterans occupying the top roles on this team. Jarry was very good last year – he was 1 of 7 goalies with 30+ wins and a save percentage of at least .915 – but like Oettinger, we need to see one more similar season from him to call him a top-end net-minder. He will have every chance to do it.

San Jose Sharks – Luke Kunin

With William Eklund sent to the AHL, options for a breakout are limited. Alexandar Barabanov was not in the lineup in Czechia and Kunin skated often on San Jose's top line in their first two games. A heavy TOI increase could see career-best offensive numbers across the board for a guy who hits a lot, even if he's eventually moved to the second line.

Seattle Kraken – Matty Beniers

One of the favourites for the Calder Trophy, Beniers has been consistently skating in Seattle's top-6 though training camp. He has wonderful puck skills and showed very well in a brief stint at the end of last year. If he can keep his role for six months, he could legitimately threaten 60 points.

St. Louis Blues – Jake Neighbours

My initial pick was Scott Perunovich but an injury could keep him out all year. Playing for yet another veteran-heavy team, Neighbours has often been skating on St. Louis's third line and posted 78 points over his final 49 games in the WHL. His issue is being waivers exempt, which could mean inconsistent appearances on the main roster.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Ross Colton

Anthony Cirelli's injury seems to be leading to Tampa Bay loading up their top line and that means fewer top-end options for the rest of the lineup. Colton had excellent scoring chance numbers last year, though, and is another 25-goal, 45-point, 170-hit threat with a bit more ice time. Let's hope he can climb the depth chart.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Nick Robertson

It seems he's been around a while, considering his appearance in the 2020 playoffs, but he just turned 21 in September. He was a point-per-game in the AHL last year, managing over three shots per contest. He has a real shot at earning a second-line wing role next to John Tavares eventually, though his waiver-exempt status is an issue for him like it is Neighbours in St. Louis. He is someone to grab from the waiver wires when he’s recalled later in the season.

Vancouver Canucks – Nils Höglander

Andrei Kuzmenko is another option here, but we have already seen Höglander play well at the NHL level. He is going into his third NHL season and has been skating recently next to J.T. Miller. His puck skills should start really coming to the forefront, all he needs is to stay in the top-9. With Brock Boeser and Ilya Mikheyev returning from injury, that's the big roadblock.

Vegas Golden Knights – Logan Thompson

If Nicolas Roy could get a top-6 role, he would be my pick here, but it seems the team really likes him in a third-line role. Thompson is going to have a lot of pressure on him as the team wants to get to the postseason again, but he could be a 55-start rookie goalie on a playoff team. That is worth a lot if he doesn't falter.

Washington Capitals – Connor McMichael

McMichael's issue is that even with Nicklas Backstrom injured, Washington is deep up front. He may be stuck in a fourth-line spot and that would make a breakout difficult. But he was strong offensively for the team in a very limited role last year and could start forcing the hand of the coaching staff for more minutes.

Winnipeg Jets – Cole Perfetti

Winnipeg will be relying on Perfetti to fill the second-line wing role that they had a tough time filling last season. Even without top PPTOI, Perfetti being in a scoring role for this team gives him 50-point potential with a decent amount of hits.

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One guy I have hopes for in terms of a breakout is Detroit's Jake Walman. He has showed very good transition/playmaking numbers in small samples the last two years. Offseason shoulder surgery will keep him out of the lineup to start the year, but he was skating with the team yesterday:

Even when he's healthy, he'll be no higher than third pair/second PP minutes, but he's someone to watch as the season wears on.

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It has now been a couple practices in Dallas with Jason Robertson signed, and the formidable top line from last year remains together:

It is worth noting Ty Dellandrea on the second line. Not only because it gives the 2018 first rounder good line mates to skate with offensively, but it also leaves both Jamie Benn and Denis Gurianov on the third line. If all goes well, Dallas could finally have some scoring depth they lacked last year. "If all goes well" being the key part here.

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Juraj Slafkovsky is expected in Montreal's lineup on opening night, and they skated like this in practice:

One issue I raised about Suzuki in the offseason was that a healthy Montreal roster, with the additions of Kirby Dach, Sean Monahan, and Evgenii Dadonov, would be much deeper up front than they were in March 2022. It made me wonder if we see Suzuki skate 21 minutes a night like he did at the end of the year. We will find out soon enough.

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Jesse Puljujärvi was on Edmonton's top line in practice:

As mentioned, Kailer Yamamoto was skating with the fourth line while he recovers from injury. We could easily see Yamo back on the top line and Pulju in Warren Foegele's third-line spot once everyone is healthy. Dylan Holloway does appear to be getting an extended look on the second trio, however.

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One player who wasn't likely to make it through waivers was Nashville's Connor Ingram. That was indeed the case:

This is interesting for Ingram. He was stuck in no-man's land on a team with a lot of great goaltending depth. He now goes to a team with three goalies that have 100 NHL starts between them. Arizona is years away from being a playoff roster, but Ingram might be that goalie for them down the road. Whether he's worth much in fantasy this season is very much an open question.

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Vegas finally signed their remaining RFA:

The team has lots of defensive depth so there may not be a lot of fantasy value for Hague outside deep leagues but their roster is finally set.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ANA Players
23.2 FRANK VATRANO TROY TERRY RYAN STROME
21.8 MASON MCTAVISH CUTTER GAUTHIER ROBBY FABBRI
17.0 BROCK MCGINN ALEX KILLORN LEO CARLSSON

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