Looking Ahead: Kane in a Tough Situation
Andrew Santillo
2022-10-14
Week 1 is almost in the books, which means we must hold back from doing the one thing we want to do – overreact. Fantasy team down? Don't go dropping players or sending trades out at 1 am! The first week is always a little bit fishy with the mid-week start to the season, so we'll navigate how to play this set your team up great moving forward. Let's dive in!
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
William Karlsson, C, Vegas Golden Knights (Rostered in 8% of ESPN leagues, 28% Fantrax, 13% Yahoo) – Karlsson is one of those players that I feel like everyone has had on their watchlist at least once in his Vegas tenure, and has been the player on a line that is seemingly always over-rostered in DFS, even when you think his line won't draw much attention.
Karlsson managed to score on the power play during Tuesday night's game vs LA and not only is that encouraging, but the even-strength line he centers also has good upside moving forward. Last season while Vegas was dealing with a multitude of injuries, forcing Karlsson into different roles on the team, and that was even coming back of an injury that he sustained early on with a broken foot. This season Vegas looks to be healthier on their top six and that gives Karlsson an excellent opportunity to face bottom six competition.
During the Knights' opening game on Wednesday, Vegas shifted around their lines throughout the game a fair amount, but what's important to note is that both Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault stayed together on the Vegas third line on even strength and second unit on the man advantage. The duo has a good sample size together, last season skating for nearly 750 minutes, with 29 goals for and a Corsi number at 58.18%. Even with a rotating right wing on their line for the time being, Karlsson is in a great spot in the early going.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Arthur Kaliyev, RW, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 38% Fantrax, 12% Yahoo) – Kaliyev's play last season was something you file away for later. Now that we're here next season I think the time might be now to add the 21-year-old winger.
Last season in the early going, I wrote up Seth Jarvis of the Carolina Hurricanes as a Building Block, and while I'm not comparing Kaliyev to Jarvis, the idea is similar. Add this player early, before he becomes a target in most leagues. Although Kaliyev had played one game in 2020-21, he played 80 last season and looked impressive as a potential top six player at times with 14 goals and 13 assists. Kaliyev had an excellent preseason putting up seven points in six games and already has his first goal of the season during the third period of Tuesday's contest.
Now, there is a tad worry early on Kaliyev's ice time as he only skated nine minutes during the Kings opening game and averaged just over 12 minutes last season. Viktor Arvidsson missed the Kings game against Seattle on Thursday, so as I write this I'm hoping that we get to see Kaliyev move up to the top six instead of Gabe Vilardi or Alex Iafallo to get a better look at his play, as we know he protects the puck well and has a heavy shot but producing along a top six line and against top competition would be very encouraging. If you're in a league with a roster spot open or in between two players, this might not be a bad time to either add Kaliyev outright or put him on your watchlist.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago Blackhawks (Rostered in 97% of ESPN leagues, 98% of Fantrax, 97% Yahoo) – The time was coming here for Kane wasn't it? In a couple of my drafts, I noticed that he would be at the top of the player pool, but instead of him being drafted right away, he stayed put in the player pool maybe longer than we're used to seeing from him. Kane could just be now an odd man out on a club that is trying to build a roster filled with anchors.
Right now the Blackhawks are trying to win…the draft lottery, and to do so they've completely scaled down this roster and sent most of their promising younger players to AHL Rockford. Kane sits in a peculiar spot because yes, he is still at the peak of his powers on offense but is on a line that could get ran over at even strength, with Andreas Athanasiou and Max Domi who like Kane, are not exactly stellar defensively.
Last season Kane notched 92 points, the third-highest in his Hall of Fame career, and did so in 78 games played. I have real doubts that he's going to hit that number this season if he's to stay in Chicago with both his even-strength and power-play lines giving him much support. In the even he’s dealt at or before the deadline, then sure, we can reassess his value. For now though you'll still get your shots on net and Kane will have a handful of games that he just takes over and wins on his own, but the 90-point water mark may difficult to get to this season.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Jakob Chychrun D, Arizona Coyotes (Rostered in 85% of ESPN leagues, 85% Fantrax, 80% Yahoo) – It's rare that I would call out an injured player, but Chychrun's roster numbers are massive for a player that I don't know if we see play at all this season. The injuries across the NHL have already started to trickle in, and with IR spots at a premium, Chychrun might not be worth holding a spot for.
I feel like there's one of two articles that I read out of the desert – Either the Yotes are in some sort of trouble, or trade speculation surrounding Chychrun. It was a busy summer for the 24-year-old defensemen who had both wrist and ankle surgery which forced him to miss all of preseason presumably because he has not yet recovered from one or both of those injuries. He also requested a trade out of Arizona, and that's coming off playing only 47 games with the club last season. With Arizona placing him on IR Monday I think there's speculation that we don't see him this season, or if we do, it might be on a different roster. The issue here is I don't know how much a GM is going to want to trade for an injured player, and we really don't know as to the severity of the injuries Chychrun is recovering from. IR spots in most leagues can tend to fill up and I'd have concerns choosing between a player with a set return date, to one with a real question mark.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs until October 26
Boston – Boston as a Love 'Em is the unofficial start to hockey being back. This club doesn't have "old" Boston as their top line of Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak together at the moment and I have questions on their power play, but this is still a club I love here upcoming. They'll see Arizona, Florida, and Anaheim at home, two of which being very winnable games for this club.
Colorado – Get used to them being here when there's games on the schedule. They'll have three days off following their game in Calgary and will then face Minnesota on the road, Winnipeg at home, Vegas on the road.
Florida – I'm high on this Florida club coming into the season and one of the reasons why is that their top three lines have one or more very good shooter on it. Upcoming they'll face both Buffalo and Philadelphia, two clubs that I don't think they'll have much of an issue creating volume shooting against.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
St. Louis – Last week, a Leave 'Em because of lack of games. This week, same story. The Blues just don't have a lot on their schedule to start the year and no games means they don't grade out great. Everything during the course of an 82-game season evens out at some point, the Blues schedule will get busier sooner rather than later.
Carolina – Carolina played a really entertaining game versus Columbus on Wednesday night, and they have three games upcoming next week but a west coast and Alberta road trip can be a gauntlet to open the season. It's great that they got these games and travel out of the way early, for now they're a stay away but that won't be the case with this club very often.
Chicago – The Hawks play only two games towards the end of next week, like St. Louis, no games mean they're a Leave 'Em. Let's be honest though, was anyone really rushing out to play any Blackhawks?
Friday, Oct 15th to Thursday, October 20th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.41 – Away OTT – Home ARI FLA ANA |
Montreal 4.21 – Away DET WSH – Home PIT ARI |
Vancouver 3.90 – Away PHI WSH CBJ MIN |
Columbus 3.79 – Away STL – Home TBL VAN NSH |
San Jose 3.72 – Away NYI NYR – Home CAR CHI |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.05 – Away San Jose |
Colorado 1.95 – Away MIN – Home WPG |
St.Louis 2.10 – Away SEA – Home CBJ |
Philadelphia 2.70 – Away TBL FLA – Home VAN |
Buffalo 2.76 – Away EDM CGY – Home FLA |
Saturday, October 15th to Friday, October 21st, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.41 – Away OTT – Home ARI FLA ANA |
Florida 4.05 – Away BUF BOS – Home PHI TBL |
Vancouver 3.90 – Away PHI WSH CBJ MIN |
Seattle 3.74 – Away COL – Home VGK CAR STL |
Los Angeles 3.71 – Away MIN DET NSH PIT |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 2 – Away SEA EDM |
St. Louis 2.10 – Away SEA – Home CBJ |
Chicago 2.15 – Away SJS |
NY Rangers 2.31 – Home ANA SJS |
Philadelphia 2.70 – Away TBL FLA – Home VAN |
Sunday, October 16th to Saturday, October 22nd, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.15 – Away OTT – Home FLA ANA MIN |
Colorado 4.06 – Away MIN VGK – Home WPG SEA |
Vancouver 3.96 – Away WSH CBJ MIN – Home BUF |
Winnipeg 3.76 – Away DAL COL VGK – Home TOR |
Los Angeles 3.75 – Away DET NSH PIT WSH |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.10 – Home Detroit |
St. Louis 2 – Away SEA EDM |
Detroit 2.09 – Away CHI – Home LAK |
NY Rangers 2.31 – Home ANA SJS |
Buffalo 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Monday, October 17th to Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.15 – Away OTT – Home FLA ANA MIN |
NY Islanders 4.07 – Away TBL FLA – Home SJS NJD |
Colorado 4.06 – Away MIN VGK – Home WPG SEA |
Vancouver – 3.96 – Away WSH CBJ MIN – Home BUF |
Florida 3.90 – Away BOS – Home PHI TBL NYI |
Steer Clear |
St. Louis 2 – Away SEA EDM |
Chicago 2.26 – Home DET SEA |
Buffalo 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Minnesota 2.75 – Away BOS – Home COL VAN |
Carolina 2.80 – Away SEA EDM CGY |
Tuesday, October 18th to Monday, October 24th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.19 – Away CHI – Home PHI TBL NYI |
Seattle 4.15 – Away COL CHI – Home STL BUF |
Vegas 4.09 – Away SJS – Home WPG COL TOR |
Columbus 4.06 – Away NYR – Home NSH PIT ARI |
New Jersey 4.01 – Away NYI DET – Home SJS WSH |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim 1.85 – Away BOS DET |
Nashville 2.16 – Away CBJ – Home PHI |
Carolina 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Tampa Bay 2.65 – Away FLA LAK – Home NYI |
Buffalo 2.71 – Away CGY VAN SEA |
Friday, October 19th to Tuesday, October 25th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Toronto 4.55 – Away MTL – Home WSH OTT ARI |
Boston 4.21 – Away WSH OTT – Home ARI FLA |
Washinton 4.10 – Away TOR – Home BOS MTL VAN |
Montreal 4 – Away DET WSH – Home TOR PIT |
Los Angeles 3.95 – Away MIN DET NSH – Home SEA |
Steer Clear |
St.Louis 1.05 – Home CBJ |
Winnipeg 1.80 – Away DAL – Home NYR |
Florida 2.71 – Away NYI BUF BOS |
Arizona 2.71 – Away PIT BOS TOR |
Minnesota 2.78 – Home NYR LAK COL |
Saturday, October 20th to Wednesday, October 26th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Vegas 4.09 – Away SJS – Home WPG COL TOR |
Columbus 4.06 – Away NYR – Home NSH PIT ARI |
New Jersey 4.01 – Away NYI DET – Home SJS WSH |
San Jose 4 – Away NYR NJD PHI – Home VGK |
NY Rangers Away NYI – Home SJS CBJ COL |
Steer Clear |
Philadelphia 2.06 – Away NSH – Home SJS |
Nashville 2.16 – Away CBJ – Home PHI |
Carolina 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Buffalo 2.71 – Away CGY VAN SEA |
Anaheim 2.80 – Away BOS DET – Home TBL |