Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

Over the next few weeks, we will revisit the 25 players I listed in my Calder article for the Dobber guide to see who opened the season in the NHL and who was sent down to the AHL or junior. Although it is dangerous to read too much into these early roster decisions and game performances, there is still insight to be gained here. Where and how players are being deployed can reveal a lot about their role moving forward. A rookie that breaks camp with his team and makes it past his nine-game audition (which burns the first year of their Entry Level Contract) will be much more likely to claim the league's top rookie award than someone who has already been sent down to the farm team.

In many cases, however, there is more to these decisions than meets the eye. Sometimes teams want to see a glimpse of what their top prospect can do at the NHL level before sending them down after nine games (ie. William Eklund last year); sometimes players are sent down to the AHL despite a strong camp/preseason due to salary cap constraints (ie. Nick Robertson this year). Knowing that context can be crucial in predicting whether or not a rookie has a legitimate shot at helping your fantasy team this year or would be better stashed on your farm.

I will also try to shed light on a few odd decisions (ie. Nashville sending Philip Tomasino to the AHL) and mention a few players I would add to my Top 25 list in hindsight with the added context of recent game action. A note on my approach to making the initial list: I prioritized players with at least one season of post-draft experience given that only six rookies since 2005-06 won the award in their D+1 year. The last six winners all had at least a season of extra experience before jumping to the NHL, so I anticipate that trend continuing in 2022-23. AHL success was also heavily weighted as it is an excellent indicator in young players in particular of future NHL success.

Of the 25 players I forwarded for Calder consideration back in the summer, 16 ended up on their team's opening night rosters, eight were sent down to the AHL, none were sent back to junior, and one (Scott Perunovich, STL) was injured.

This week, we will begin this series by profiling eight of the 16 players who stuck in the NHL to start the year.

Calen Addison (MIN)

Addison owners must be delighted. Not only has the shifty defender made the Wild but he has been manning the point on their first power-play unit alongside Kirill Kaprizov. And that unit has been looking slick.

no goal for the first unit but it is FLYING. calen addison brings so much pic.twitter.com/nbWXPU9cRN

— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) October 14, 2022

At this point, it looks like Addison will stick with the big club past his nine-game audition. Further, with Perunovich injured for a significant stretch and other rookie defenders like Owen Power and Jake Sanderson seeing extensive minutes but minimal power-play time, Addison has a very real shot at posting the highest point total of all rookie defenseman.

Shout out to Rick Roos, who was the only writer to select Addison to win the Calder in the Dobber Experts Panel article.

Calen Addison has made the Minnesota Wild. There's a good chance he winds up a very substantial producer for the Wild on the back end. He holds the 8th highest star probability from the 2018 draft. pic.twitter.com/x768K2eRou

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) October 9, 2022

Matty Beniers (SEA)

Beniers has joined an exclusive club by scoring 11 points in his first 11 NHL games.

Matty Beniers of the @SeattleKraken joined Jonathan Toews and Joe Sakic as the third teenager in League history to find the score sheet in at least 11 of his first 12 career NHL games. 🤯 #NHLStats: https://t.co/x8jvGzJfbK pic.twitter.com/CVykadvDgD

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 14, 2022

Ten out of the 22 Dobber writers chose Beniers to win the Calder, making him the overwhelming favourite, and that consensus is looking pretty damn good in the early going. Beniers is looking dynamic and should play a critical role down the middle for the Kraken this year. As mentioned in my initial Calder article, Beniers has better opportunity than most of his peers given the lack of competition at C with the Kraken, and Seattle has a bevy of excellent wingers who should help Beniers post solid totals.

Matty Beniers lights the lamp 🚨 pic.twitter.com/XOsWeTKifP

— ROOT SPORTS™ | NW (@ROOTSPORTS_NW) October 13, 2022

Be warned, though: only Jared McCann (50 points in 74 games) managed to break 50 points last year on this team. Granted that was Seattle's first year in the league, and they look a lot more dangerous in 2022-23 already, but the question for Beniers will be whether or not he can push far enough past that 50-point mark to keep him competitive for the Calder.

Dylan Guenther (ARI)

Guenther is in a tough spot this year—too good for the WHL, probably not quite ready for the NHL, ineligible to be sent down the AHL because of the NHL-CHL agreement. He is set to debut with the Coyotes tonight, but it remains an open question whether or not he will stick with Arizona past nine games.

My gut says they will end up sending him down but we will see. It is going to be another rough year in the desert as the Coyotes gun for a top pick in the lauded 2023 draft, so it may be prudent to spare one of their best prospects from that misery.

Dylan Holloway (EDM)

Holloway led the NHL in preseason goal-scoring with four goals in four games on 15 shots. While that shooting percentage is obviously unsustainable, those totals suggest that Holloway could make some serious noise this year. Plug him in beside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl and he is as good a candidate as any to take home the Calder.

It is important to note, however, that for the first game of the regular season, Holloway was buried down on the fourth line alongside Derek Ryan and Ryan McLeod and saw only eight minutes of ice. That does not mean he will stay down there, particularly as injuries and inconsistency strike, but it likely is not in the Oilers' best interests to deploy a dynamic talent like Holloway in their bottom six. If he can't earn a better spot, he is at risk of being sent down for more seasoning.

He will need to avoid bad turnovers like this to move up the lineup:

And the first goal of the season goes to EP40 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CqiCDvSCyH

— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) October 13, 2022

Poolies in multi cat formats take note: Holloway managed four hits with those eight minutes of icetime. That was just one game, but his speedy, attacking style may generate solid peripherals on top of whatever scoring he is able to manage.

Alexander Holtz (NJD)

As noted in the initial article, Holtz's job is to hang with Hughes/Hischier and put the puck in the net with his incredible shot. So far, he has played that role perfectly.

First NHL goal for Holtz opens the scoring for the #NJDevils pic.twitter.com/8tKFA84oCU

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) October 13, 2022

It looks like Holtz will stick with the big club this year, which is excellent news for his keeper/dynasty owners. One thing to monitor, however, is Nico Hischier's health. If Hischier, who has started the year on IR, has sustained injury problems again this year, there is a risk that Holtz could get bumped off the Hughes line and end up with neither of the Devils' top two Cs. If that happens, his Calder chances would worsen dramatically.

Kent Johnson (CBJ)

Johnson was sent down to the AHL initially, but the injury to Patrik Laine has opened a spot for him. He played last game alongside Cole Sillinger and Gustav Nyquist on the third line. It is a bit difficult to make out, but here is a clip of his incredible assist on a Nyquist goal last night. He shovels the puck out of the zone on his backhand, and it lands directly on Nyquist's stick.

Kent Johnson feeds Gustav Nyquist for a QUICK response#CBJ

pic.twitter.com/sOczOX5kK8

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) October 14, 2022

That is the kind of dynamism and creativity that characterizes Johnson's game. Hopefully he is able to stick with the Jackets even after Laine returns because he brings a lot of excitement to the game. Coach Brad Larsen's recent comments on KJ suggest that the coaching staff likes what they have been seeing from him.

#CBJ coach Brad Larsen on Kent Johnson today: "Kent is here because he deserves to be here, period."

Larsen said he's seen steps in KJ's pace of play, competitiveness and ability to execute at a high speed. If he's a scratch to start, "he's not gonna sit on the shelf long."

— Jeff Svoboda (@JacketsInsider) October 10, 2022

The only thing that gives me pause about Johnson's chances at the Calder is a lack of opportunity. Unlike someone like Beniers, for instance, Johnson is down on the third line and faces an uphill battle to move higher. Columbus has a competitive top six, and it seems unlikely that Johnson will get the minutes and deployment needed this year to compete for the top rookie award.

Matias Maccelli (ARI)

It is hard to fully count Maccelli out because of his considerable pro experience in the Liiga and excellent AHL numbers last year. That said, even though it looks like he will see a decent role with the Coyotes this year (over 17 minutes TOI in their first game), he likely will not generate enough offence to garner serious Calder consideration. He is seeing some time on special teams and is a solid depth add but may not become a top-of-the-line up type.

Mason McTavish (ANA)

McTavish is another popular pick to win the Calder—chosen by two of the Dobber writers and many in the internet scouting community. He looked NHL-ready last year already as an 18-year-old, scoring three points in nine games with minimal ice time. Then he absolutely feasted at the World Juniors with 17 points in 7 games and back in the OHL with 40 points in 24 games. He is fully developed physically (6-0, 213 lbs) and should have a significant impact on the Ducks as early as this year. He is off to an excellent start already with two points in his first game.

It should be illegal for Mason McTavish to play world juniors still idc what his birthday is that dude is a 35 year old grizzled veteran and he's going to hurt those children

— return to black & red and 666 others (@ChuckEGoods) August 9, 2022

Mason McTavish getting smooth w' it 🦆 pic.twitter.com/v3vUr6B4gv

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 8, 2022

Thanks for reading! Tune in next week for past two of this Calder series. Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.