Ramblings: Hagel, a Couple of Backups to Stash, Johnston, DeAngelo, a Roto-Sleeper and more … (Oct. 17)

Dobber

2022-10-17

The last updates for the Fantasy Guide were finished on Thursday. If you didn't pick up the Guide yet and you have a late draft (it happens!), visit here.

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Have you checked out the new Goalie Post yet? Set up your email update notifications now (you'll have to do it again, with the new platform). Login, go to your settings, and check off the boxes of teams you want emailed updates on for starting goalie notifications. It's free! Please note that we are working through some 'spam' regulations before we can begin sending out these emails. But shouldn't be more than a few days.

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Dobbernomics. It's not too late – register a team today and get extra transactions to make up for the games you've missed. With that you can easily still compete. We are still fixing and adding features to this game and could use all the feedback and sign-ups we can get. Thank you! We have 338 registered teams, but only 241 have filled their rosters. Please fill in your rosters if you haven't already, and help us with player value fluctuations!

Each day we are adding features, fixing bugs to both Goalie Post and Dobbernomics. Both sites will be up to 'my' standards in about a month, I figure. Please be patient. You'll love it. Both have really come along over the past week alone. My vision for Dobbernomics is pretty incredible. The two apps will come out in a couple of months.

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No games were on the slate for Sunday. We don't see that again until American Thanksgiving on November 24.

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Brandon Hagel has played three games this season alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. The line hasn't produced yet, and I'm not sure how much leash he will get. But given that the line has created 28 chances for and given up 14 chances against – I would attribute the slump to puck luck more than anything. The line is obviously clicking. How long can those guys get shut down? Kucherov has no goals on six ES shots. Point has one ES goal on seven ES shots. Hagel goalless on five ES shots. I think the coach gives them at least a couple more games together and when a puck goes in – the floodgates open. If no pucks go in, then Hagel's big chance is gone and he won't get another one like this until weeks go by. Be patient here.

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Jack Campbell got roughed up pretty bad on Saturday, getting the hook just a half period into the Battle of Alberta. Stuart Skinner came in and completely shut the door. My ears always perk up when I see a young goaltender consistently outplay the veteran starters, as Skinner did last season. Looks like he's doing it again this year (so far) behind a new veteran. If you have the ability to stash a backup for a couple of months, then this is a top one to stash.

I'm also a fan of Filip Gustavsson. Gus was roughed up a bit on Saturday, but not as much as Marc-Andre Fleury – and Fleury has had two bad games now. The Wild are a notoriously stingy team when it comes to defense and it's usually easy for a goaltender to settle down behind that style of play. Gustavsson is another player worth stashing for two months, just on a wait-and-see basis.

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Your early NHL scoring leader is Sidney Crosby and no it's not 2015. The 35-year-old is going to continue to be a top productive option for at least three more years, yet he will continue to see his fantasy value slip as owners believe the bottom will drop out any minute. No, still three more years. That makes him great value as you pick him up 50th or 60th in leagues. His ADP in Fantrax this year was 28th.

Evgeni Malkin has 11 shots on goal in two games. I kept saying all summer that this will be a rebound year and that's off to a solid start. Generational players last longer. Just needs to stay healthy.

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Nino Niederreiter is one of just three players to score four goals already, although he's the only one of the trio to play four games. These are all at even strength and given that he won't keep shooting at a 40% rate, I would expect him to slow down soon. The secondary PP unit, of which he is a member of, is seeing a lot of action so far and that will also slow down.

One promising thing about El Nino though is his chemistry with Eeli Tolvanen. This is helping both players and if it continues then it will see to it that Tolvanen easily tops 45 points (finally). Niederreiter's career high is 57 points and that's a pretty tall order of him to reach, but getting into the 50s seems not only doable but likely.

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Columbus is struggling out of the gate. The offense is struggling, the defense is struggling. Nothing is working. The lines keep shuffling, especially now that Patrik Laine is out. One constant is Boone Jenner playing with Johnny Gaudreau. The other winger has been Gustav Nyquist and Justin Danforth. Jakub Voracek has also taken a turn, as well as Yegor Chinakhov. To me, it's only a matter of time before Boone Jenner steps aside and Kent Johnson, Jack Roslovic or Cole Sillinger get a shot. Sillinger has played four shifts with Gaudreau at even strength, but they were out-chanced 6-3. Roslovic had a brief shift there but the team was out-chanced 2-0. With the Blue Jackets winless so far, there is a shorter leash on Jenner for that top spot. And a full, sustained game on a line with Gaudreau is in the cards for one of the younger three players noted above. Jenner does well with Johnny Hockey when Laine is there too, but without Laine nothing seems to be working. Keep an eye on this situation as a few player values will be impacted for the better – and soon.

Voracek, by the way, has the lowest plus/minus in the league at minus-6.

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The line of Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov and Ryan Hartman are a combined minus-15. Hartman was even removed from the line. Kaprizov and Zuke are producing offense, but their defense has been porous.

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I'm starting to get the sense that Martin Necas has finally arrived. Yes, he's on an unsustainable hot streak with four points in two games, but he's really showing chemistry with up-and-coming superstar Andrei Svechnikov. And he's also prone to slow starts – last year it took him eight games to get his fourth point.

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Tony DeAngelo's best offensive seasons are still ahead of him. I'm not sure why I get so many arguments on social media when I say he's one of the few defensemen who can get a point-per-game over an entire season. The Flyers may not have a great team, and maybe they only have one player reach 65 points this year, but if anyone gets over that mark – my money is on DeAngelo. He's a legit power-play savant. In the Fantasy Guide I have him leading the Flyers with 57 points, but that was over 72 games. If he plays the full 82, he's getting well over 60.

With DeAngelo as his ES partner, Ivan Provorov is really cashing in as well. He has three assists already and I am starting to think I undershot his projection (40 points). I didn't put Provorov down in the Guide as a sleeper, but I now realize that I should have. I did accurate project him to be TDA's defense partner, so you'd think I would have taken that a step further and put him in as a sleeper. Kicking myself.

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Wyatt Johnston has so far made the Dallas Stars, but these first nine games are absolutely key. He's playing with Jamie Benn (good) and Denis Gurianov (bad), and so far the line is performing poorly. Johnston's lone point has come on the power play. To me, it doesn't look like he'll play that 10th game. He'll go back to junior rather than the Stars burn a year of control, barring a sudden surge in his performance. Right now he is playing at the expense of Jacob Peterson. And while Peterson will never be a top sixer, the Stars don't really need a top sixer for Johnston's spot. Johnston needs to legitimately seize a top nine role.

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Surprise depth guy so far in roto leagues? Chicago's Sam Lafferty. He has two goals (both shorties!) and an assist in three games, but he also has seven PIM, is plus-1 with five SOG and five Hits.

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All five of Mikko Rantanen's points so far are assists. All five of them on the power play.

Two other players with at least four points have 100% of them come via the PP: Artturi Lehkonen and Zuccarello.

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When you look at the SOG leaders, you see the usual suspects in Auston Matthews (17), Steven Stamkos (16) and Mika Zibanejad (15). And you're not surprised by Timo Meier (19, but in four games) either, as he had 326 of them last season. But it is a nice surprise seeing Oliver Bjorkstrand up there with 15, or 5.0 per game. Bjorkstrand is generally a 200-shot player, and while he obviously won't get 400 shots this season – can he get 300?

By the way – Meier is still looking for his first goal, despite leading the league in shots on goal.

Still looking for his first goal is Alexis Lafreniere. But it's promising that his ice time is still steady at around 17 minutes per game. He's still locked in on the Artemi Panarin line, and that's a premier setup man to have there. The line is doing well in terms of driving possession so I think Lafreniere gets some leash there and keeps the spot for a while longer. He has 13 shots – 11 of them at even strength.

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It's early, but Nick Ritchie leads all Arizona forwards in points with two. His SOG output has really spiked since arriving their late last season. His PPTOI is 4:35 per game in the two games so far. As a bigger forward, his breakout year (his BT) is this season.

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Sonny Milano signed a one-year deal with the Capitals for the league minimum. He is currently on waivers so other teams can snap him up. If he gets through, look for him to get into a couple of games in Hershey first. But when he gets called up to the big club, I don't know who they'll bench to fit him in. I feel like the Connor Brown experiment isn't working out on the top line so far, so I'm guessing Milano gets a look there. But Brown is a tremendous asset on the third line, so who gets bumped? Aliaksei Protas is playing very well and Joe Snively and Connor McMichael are already getting scratched. I can see them sending McMichael down to get some big minutes, so perhaps Milano will just be an extra. To me, Milano is either first line or press box – no in between.

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Cool story for you about a guy in my main dynasty league (21 years going now). He was on vacation over on the east coast. Our annual draft is the last Sunday of every September – locked in. Every year. Full attendance mandatory. It is very rare that someone misses this draft. My friend here, Craig, goes above and beyond. His flight lands in Toronto on Sunday morning and the draft in that particular year was held in London. He hightailed it to London, dead tired and a little hungover, and got there a half hour before the draft.

He had one draft pick. In the fourth round. Of a four-round draft. And he still made it.

This dedication is amazing, and what's great about this pool is – everyone is that dedicated.

By the way – his one draft pick? Adam Fox. The draft was in 2017 when Fox still belonged to Calgary. The pick was the fifth-last pick of the draft, and he locked in a player who would become a Top 3 defenseman to own in fantasy hockey not four years later. So I guess the hustle back was worth it…

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Good luck this season! Thank you very much for your support in buying the Guides and keeping these websites running.

See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Ian Sharp 2022-10-17 at 10:08

    This is how every ramblings should be. Inside info and trending. Discussing real fantasy stats and line combos and what that means. BTW, great story about the draft and getting Fox. Must have been good Karma. Cheers.

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