Geek of the Week: Early-Season Injuries Creating Opportunities
Scott Royce
2022-10-23
Now that a second full week of regular season hockey is just about in the books, we are fully back into the swing of things for the current NHL season. This time of year is crucial in regards to keeping your eyes peeled to the waiver wire. There's always solid value to be found this time of the year. Whether it be emerging scenarios of players stepping into bigger roles with their teams, or even scavenging players that other owners may have dropped too quickly. I find these first three or four weeks can really be substantial to the long-term outcome of your team come the end of the season. This week I'm going to highlight a few players that aren't owned in a ton of leagues that might have a bit more upside than expected for the time being thanks to injuries that have opened up larger roles. Let's take a look!
Here is a perfect example of a player that traditionally hasn't been a fantasy hockey asset, but given his current circumstances, I am willing to take a shot with him for the next little while. Heinen is 27 years of age and just entering the prime of his playing career. After developing with the Boston Bruins for nearly four seasons, he was dealt to the Anaheim Ducks. There he played out his contract and last year would sign a one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Both sides seemed mutually happy, so Heinen re-upped for another single season contract this year. Entering his seventh campaign, Henien has always been a middle-six forward who has generally been solid, though his numbers don't really leap out at you. He's a reliable player, but doesn't especially excel in any one stat, so fantasy-wise, he has rarely been of consequence. That is, until he found himself lining up on the wing of Sidney Crosby. With an unfortunate injury to Jake Guentzel, the Penguins found themselves with a gaping hole on their first line heading into last night's contest versus Columbus.
Sure enough, Heinen got the call to play on Crosby's line and he certainly made the most of his opportunity, burying two goals. He gained high praise from Crosby after the game too, so I'd say it's probably a safe bet that line will be staying intact at least for the time being. We've seen over the years the benefits of playing with Crosby can bring to a player. Guys like Bryan Rust and Chris Kunitz both come to mind immediately. We currently don't have a timetable for Guentzel's return, but for now if you have an open spot on your roster, Heinen definitely has low-risk, high-reward potential.
I was pretty eager to write off the Penguins this season too, but not surprisingly, they have come out to another strong start to the season. Heinen is up to three goals and three assists already through just five games. He's also shooting a ton, averaging just under three shots per game thus far. The only real setback is that he is stuck on the second power play unit as Rickard Rakell has slotted into Guentzel's top unit spot. Unsurprisingly, Heinen is available pretty much across the board still at this point. On Yahoo he is just two percent owned, while on Fantrax he is 16% owned. He has dual-wing eligibility also, so that does make it easier to squeak him into your lineups.
Much like the aforementioned Heinen, Pinto finds himself to be the beneficiary of a potential bigger role due to an injury to a teammate. Yesterday afternoon, Josh Norris was forced to leave the game with a shoulder injury that has the chance to keep him on the shelf for a decent amount of time. Norris was seen to be visually frustrated heading off to the team's dressing room, so you could speculate that maybe he also thinks he could have an extended absence coming up. It sucks to see a solid player go down, especially a guy like Norris who is young and in a top-six role like he is. But in fantasy sports, one man's loss is always another man's opportunity, and that’s where Pinto comes in.
Pinto was a 2019 second round pick for the Sens, and is a big part of the youth movement happening in the Nation's Capital. He entered the season slotted in as the team's third-line center and has already been having a great season. After being shut out in the season opener, Pinto has gone on to score in his last four straight contests. He's been shooting a great volume, and is even good for around a hit per game as a nice added bonus. He will likely be slotted into Norris' spot between Alex Debrincat and Claude Giroux. It goes without saying that this is a massive opportunity for the 20-year-old.
If you are in a league that tracks faceoffs, I think there's also a bit of hidden value in that category for Pinto as well. With his limited deployment on the third line, he's been averaging six faceoffs won per game while his faceoff percentage is absurdly high at over 60 percent. With the obvious assumption that he will be getting more crucial playing time now, those numbers should go up, so you could probably bank on him to get you at least ten draws per game, which is a great number. As a pure center with no wing eligibility, you really need these guys to rack up a lot of draws in faceoff leagues, so that's an important detail.
Pinto was currently centering the second-line power-play unit, and I think he would probably stay there for the time being. Norris was the fourth forward on the top unit before his shoulder injury, but I think Debrincat or Giroux will get the nod for the promotion over Pinto. Until we know the results of Norris' MRI, this is some heavy speculation, but if you have an open roster spot, I think Pinto could stay hot and keep producing at a solid rate. On Yahoo he is rostered in just six percent of all leagues, while on Fantrax he is owned in just under half of their leagues.
To round things out this week, we turn our focus to the blueline, and I decided to cover Sandin instead of Calen Addison. For one, I think Addison has been pretty well covered already and I don't want to keep harping on the same guys other writers here and on other media outlets. While I think Addison does make for a good speculatory pickup right now, Sandin could be an equally good play, if not better in the long-term this season. These two are actually great to compare, but let me dive into Sandin a bit more.
First off, it's worth noting Sandin started off this season a little bit behind schedule per se. He was embroiled in a contract dispute with the Leafs this offseason, and as a result, he didn't hit the ice until the last preseason game. I think it took him a couple regular season games to really get his feet under him and settle in. Much like the other two players in this article, Sandin is going to be seeing much more ice time going forward thanks to what seems to be a pretty serious injury to Jake Muzzin.
Thanks to that, Sandin moves up to the middle pair and will be leaned on for some serious minutes at least in the short-term. Where Addison has Sandin beat is that he currently resides on the Wild's top power-play unit, whereas Sandin is slotted in on Toronto's second power-play line. That makes a huge difference undoubtedly, but I think the wheels are starting to turn in Toronto, and I think Sandin could get a look at the top power-play unit sooner rather than later.
The Leafs are so top-loaded, but despite that the power play has looked pretty bad through seven games. I find a big part of that can be attributed to Morgan Rielly, who quarterbacks the unit. He doesn't have a huge shot to put on net, and at times he can be slow distributing the puck around from the point. Don't get me wrong, Reilly is a great player, but I think the Leafs could benefit from Sandin's skillset, and at some point he will get a chance.
Sandin already has two power-play points in limited special teams time, so there's an argument to be made to give him a bigger opportunity. Through Sandin's six games so far,he has just three assists, but unlike Addison, he brings a lot more to the table in terms of fantasy. He's averaging over three hits per game so far this year which is great, and he's also getting on average one block per game. These peripherals alone do a lot to make Sandin more rosterable. His biggest setback is his shot rate though. He doesn't shoot nearly enough, so that's definitely a concern to take into consideration.
Since Muzzin went down with his injury, Sandin's ice-time has gone up by almost six minutes per game, so it’s a substantial opportunity he's getting. In Yahoo leagues he is only four percent owned, while over on Fantrax he is 37 percent rostered. You could make a great case for Addison as well, but honestly both are great options to take a shot on right now if you are looking for an extra d-man for your blueline.
Well that's all for this week! It's unfortunate to see so many injuries popping up, but it seems to always happen, especially early on in the season. With all three players I mentioned, it's important to keep track of how long the injured players are expected to be out for, as these players I've noted are really relying on their bonus ice-time to make an impact. Make sure you set your lineups next week before getting all dressed up in your Halloween costumes and going out partying! See you next week!