Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 Team, 23 Players (maximum 4 goalies), H2H, Keep 15 (maximum 2 goalies) league with rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 3F, 4D, 2G, 8 Bench, 2 IR+ and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, HIT, BLK, W, SV, SV%, SHO, a GM has put Aleksander Barkov on the trade block, seeking a two for one deal to obtain more talent depth in furtherance of a rebuild. What offer should a competing GM – who won in 2021-22 – make to obtain him, given this roster:

C – Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Mathew Barzal, Marco Rossi
LW – Kirill Kaprizov, Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Guentzel, Jamie Benn (C), Elias Pettersson (C)
RW – Mitch Marner, Timo Meier (LW), Kevin Fiala (LW), Patik Laine (LW), Brandon Tanev (LW)
D – Rasmus Dahlin, Thomas Chabot, Ivan Provorov, Dmitri Orlov, Rasmus Ristolainen, Erik Cernak
G – Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, MacKenzie Blackwood

I/R+ – Jakub Chychrun

This likely would be a competitive team in an eight-team league; in a 12 team one, it's amazing. Getting Barkov would be icing on the proverbial cake more so than filling an actual need. That having been said, it still might be worth obtaining Barkov to prevent him from landing in the hands of a tough competitor. Too often a winning team that chooses to rest on its laurels when it should – as is occurring here – be proactive and consider taking steps to improve or at least try to stop other teams from landing an asset like Barkov who could make them better.

The question is how to shape the deal such that it's attractive enough to tempt the team that has Barkov. This should not be a mission to acquire Barkov at any cost. Yes, the goal is to obtain him, but one must be sure to draw a line where it needs to be drawn. That way, if another team bests the offer, that would mean they've weakened themselves enough to lead to them not being likely to have gained ground.

Looking at this roster, players I'd offer are one of Blackwood, who has teased us before with decent early play, Rossi, who, as an undersized center, is less likely to succeed – at least at the outset – than others but still has name value hype, and Provorov, who more and more it looks like will be pigeonholed into a defensive mold much like what has happened with similarly once hyped prospects such as Ryan Pulock and Darnell Nurse. I see those three as tradeable without much risk of them causing seller's remorse.

But we're talking about Barkov, who's an elite forward; so the other player has to be more of a step up. I'd be prepared to offer Chabot, who's solid but seems to have a ceiling despite great deployment, or Chychrun, who could go to a great team but has injury concerns. If one – or perhaps even two – from the first group of three, plus one from the second group of two, isn't enough to convince the Barkov owner to bite, then I'd forget about making a deal and move on, citing the old adage that sometimes the best trades are the ones not made.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, H2H full keeper with, 25 roster spots plus 5 "farm" spots and categories of G, A, Pts, Hits, PIM, PPPt, SHP, GWG, W, SV%, GAA, SO, and line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, a rebuilding team has, as notable centers, Nick Suzuki, Matty Beniers, Marco Rossi, Anthony Cirelli and Barrett Hayton and, as notable defensemen, Noah Hanifin, Matt Dumba, Vince Dunn, Michael Matheson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Scott Perunovich, and David Jiricek. Should the team be willing to trade Beniers to get Owen Power?

Expectations are sky high for both Beniers and Power given where they were drafted. Beniers is poised to be the top center in Seattle this season, on a first line that is vastly upgraded by including one or both of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky. The team's PP1 likewise should be much improved. Still, much of the excitement about Beniers is due to his nine points in 10 games in 2021-22, during which he shot over 17%, had four PPPts on four PPGs scored while he was on the ice, plus an over 81% overall IPP. That might well be a glimpse of elite talent; however, it could also be short-term excellence.

Power played in two fewer 2021-22 games, and had less impact. The major issue for Power is he failed to receive meaningful PP time, which could continue in view of the presence of Rasmus Dahlin, who's a more one-dimensional rearguard. Having both Power and Dahlin is great for the Sabres in terms of "real life" hockey, but less so with regard to fantasy, as it's very rare for two defensemen on the same team to be impactful. Yes, it occurred last season with Cale Makar and Devon Toews in Colorado; however, they were partners, whereas Dahlin and Power won't skate together very much if last season was any indication. Does this mean there is no room for Power to make an impact? Not necessarily, as we can think back to Shea Weber and Roman Josi in Nashville and Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk in St. Louis as two examples of rearguard duos who both excelled in fantasy. If there's a tandem poised to be able to achieve similar double success, it's Dahlin and Power.

We also can't look past this fantasy team having significantly more depth at forward than on defense. As such, it could more easily afford to lose Beniers if it meant upgrading at defense. What I'd do is offer Rossi instead. He has nearly as much hype as Beniers, but, as a smaller stature player, might take longer to succeed, if he finds success at all, since top-tier centers as short as he is, are a rarity. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Derek Roy and Daniel Briere thriving more than a decade ago to find point per game diminutive centers, with the best recent examples – and best is definitely a relative term here – being Tyler Johnson and David Desharnais. Do I still make the deal if it has to be for Beniers? I think so given the team's depth at forward, plus either Power will succeed alongside Dahlin or, if Power becomes a huge talent, Dahlin could be moved once his current deal expires after next season.

Topic #3 – How should these players be ranked in a points only dynasty: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Drake Batherson, Jesper Bratt, Roope Hintz, Mark Stone, and Evgeni Malkin?

I've got Malkin at the bottom. Although Malkin is likely the only one who I could see scoring at a 110 point pace, that would require him to be healthy. Plus, Malkin's game is not like Sidney Crosby's because Malkin is a larger player who relies more on physicality, meaning that age will matter more in his case. I see him as a significant risk in a dynasty league; so while Malkin could still pay dividends for another season or two, I have to put him last under the circumstances.

Stone is a tad above Malkin. I have concerns that the nature and frequency of Stone's injuries will take – or already have taken – a toll on him as a scorer. He's unquestionably talented; but I wonder whether he can achieve the same level of success again. Still though, if Stone is healthy, he could easily jump a few spots. He's the biggest risk/reward player on the list.

One notch above Stone is Batherson. Not only are there concerns due to the 2018 WJC incident and his possible role, but points only isn't his best format. Also, the new talent in Ottawa stands to push him off PP1, which is where he had 11 of his 34 first half points last season. He should still do well because he's always had solid IPPs; yet I think his ceiling is 80-85 points whereas prior to DeBrincat and Giroux coming on board I might've said it was 90+.

For the next two spots, I've got Bratt and Kyrou in a virtual deadlock. But if push came to shove, Kyrou gets the slight edge. Bratt had a quietly very solid 2021-22 and was quite adept at playing alongside both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. I worry though that his PP acumen and shot volume do not seem like those of a player with much more than a point per game ceiling, but with a lift due to New Jersey improving as a team. Kyrou's IPPs were unsustainably sky high; and even with David Perron having left, it's not clear Kyrou will get a seat at the PP1 table. Still, there is no denying Kyrou's talent; and even if he's not impactful right away he should be more so down the road after some of the older Blues make room for him to be increasingly emphasized.

The top three are close enough that an argument could be made to slot them in any order. But I'm putting Hintz as best, then Buchnevich, then Thomas. Hintz did superbly last season, as was obscured by an ice-cold start. He also had limited minutes due to the ice time philosophy of now departed coach Rick Bowness, with only the 98th most average minutes per game among forwards but scoring the 38th most points, and it being a similar story on the PP (79th in PP time per game but tied for 41st in PPPts). With Bowness gone, Hintz is poised to explode.

Yes, the same could be said for Kyrou and ice time; but Hintz is a locked in top liner, so he gets the edge over Kyrou, and, as noted, over Thomas and Buchnevich as well. I have Buchnevich ahead of Thomas due to Buchnevich seeing his scoring rate – and SOG rate – increase every season of his career to date, and there still being realistic room for both to further uptick. But being on the Blues, who run three scoring lines, hurts him, and puts a cap on his ceiling, for now at least. As for Thomas, he showed he could be one of the better playmaking centers of this decade. But his scoring was boosted by a goal total that was unsustainably high in the second half, potting 15 goals on just 63 SOG. Thomas' pass first mentality should cap him at 90 points, with Buchnevich maybe able to climb to 95, and Hintz being eventually able to hit 100+.

Topic #4 – In a one-year, 12 team, H2H league with categories of G, A, PIM, PPP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SO, a GM has the following roster:

C: Sebastian Aho, Dylan Larkin, Mark Scheifele
LW : Brady Tkachuk, Evander Kane, Tyler Toffoli
RW; Matthew Tkachuk, William Nylander, Tyler Bertuzzi
D: Thomas Chabot, Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg, Tyson Barrie
G: Thatcher Demko, Ville Husso
IR: Charlie McAvoy
IR+ John Tavares

The GM has received a trade offer (Sidney Crosby and Rasmus Andersson for Aho and Heiskanen) from another GM looking to upgrade their defense. The GM is inclined to accept the deal given that it's a one-year league and to improve in FW, plus a sense that they're pretty set at defense, particularly once McAvoy returns. Should they make the deal?

If it was me, I probably do the deal. First off, in a one-year league I think Crosby outpoints Aho. Don't get me wrong – it they played under identical circumstances Aho probably would be able to have more value than Crosby; however, the reality is Aho has been and remains stuck with suboptimal deployment. After one season where he took the ice for 20:09 per game, since then Aho had seen his ice time drop, with it falling below 19:00 per game in 2021-22. That might not seem like a big deal, but it is, as out of 124 instances of forwards scoring 90+ points in a season dating back to 2000-01, just 12 – not even 10% – averaged less TOI per game than Aho did last season. And with Carolina's ice time philosophy working, they won't fix what isn't broken, to the detriment of Aho's fantasy value.

As for Crosby, he became just the second player in NHL history to average a point per game or better in each of his first 16 seasons, with some guy named Wayne Gretzky being the other. After Gretzky did that, he had two more seasons of 90+ point production, boding well for Crosby this season, as does the fact that Pittsburgh kept its top six entirely intact. Even without the benefit of added FW, I like Crosby over Aho in a one-year league.

The question shifts to whether Heiskanen's value is higher than Andersson's and, if so, does it offset Crosby's advantage enough to rethink the deal. On paper Heiskanen should be positioned to have a fantastic fantasy season. The issue is we really don't know if he has the sustained offensive talent to match his overall skill. Yes, we saw it in the 2019 playoffs; however, since then he's failed to be impactful offensively. Although Nils Lundqvist is largely untested at the NHL level, there is a universe in which Heiskanen fails to flourish on the PP and the QB role goes to Lundqvist. As for Andersson, he kept the PP1 gig even as Noah Hanifin was playing point per game hockey over the last quarter of 2021-22. Is his hold on the PP1 QB spot ironclad though? I'd say no, meaning he could be pushed aside too; and I think the odds of it happening are higher than they are for Heiskanen losing that gig in Dallas. With 19 of Andersson's 50 points last season coming on the man advantage, his value could take a major hit if he's exiled to the second unit.

Crosby's value in a one-year league is greater than Aho's; however Heiskanen's is greater than Andersson's, meaning arrows are pointing in opposite directions, suggesting the trade is pretty even. I'd still be inclined to make the deal given this is a one-year league and how much better Crosby figures to be than Aho this season in view of the categories, plus Andersson needing to be displaced from PP1 as opposed to Heiskanen needing to actually prove he can succeed in that role.

Yes, I make the deal. If this is a keeper though, I'd likely stand pat, in hopes that Aho will be unshackled from his suboptimal TOI situation and with Heiskanen likely to grow into the PP1 role, with Lundqvist a possibility to play alongside him, as one is a right-handed shot and the other a lefty, so it could happen.

Topic #5 – In a keeper league with skater categories of G, A, Pts, PIM, HIT, +/-, PPPts, SHP, and GWG, a GM who also owns Brayden Point is wondering if it would better to own Nikita Kucherov or Jonathan Huberdeau?

A couple of years ago this would've been an open and shut case for Kucherov. But fast forward to now and Huberdeau scored at a 118-point pace last season while Kucherov has suffered a couple of injuries which make him a riskier own than he'd been previously.

Looking at Huberdeau's stats more closely, before he scored at a 118-point rate in 2021-22 he produced in the 90- to 95-point range for three straight seasons. Guess what – Huberdeau almost averaged a PPPt per every other game (38 in 80 contests), which is about a 20% higher rate than in his three 90- to 95-point production rate seasons. And Florida's 4.11 goals per game rate in 2021-22 was 20% higher than the 3.29 cumulative rate for the team in Huberdeau's three 90- to 95-point production seasons. If we reduce 118 points by 20%, we get 94, i.e., squarely in Huberdeau's prior range. Coincidence? Probably not.

As for Kucherov, no question his injuries have made him a riskier own. Even after a lengthy injury absence early last season he finished the campaign with a 120-point scoring rate. Unlike Huberdeau, Kucherov had been there before. In fact, when I covered Kucherov in a recent Goldipucks column, his 2021-22 campaign was comparable to his 128 point pace 2018-19, with any higher numbers (e.g., 5×5 shooting percentage) offset by lower numbers (e.g., IPP) and with him being able to succeed with linemates who either do well or don't. In a nutshell, if Kucherov is healthy he's a 120+ point player.

The fact that Kucherov was able to rebound in 2021-22 after getting hurt, as compared to the 20% boosts Huberdeau received, seem to make Kucherov the choice among the two. That the team also owns Point, allowing for a beneficial stacking opportunity, is icing on the cake.

Topic #6 – In a 14 team, keep 14 plus 5 farm, league with an 82 game cap per position and starting lineups of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G and scoring of one point for a goal or assist, two points for a goalie win, and three points for a shutout, a team was planning for a rebuild but thinks it may be able to contend. Given this, who are the safest players to drop or stream?

C- Sidney Crosby, Mika Zibanejad, Sam Bennett, Ryan Johansen
LW- Cole Caufield, Alexis Lafreniere, Andrei Kuzmenko, Max Domi
RW- Oliver Bjorkstrand, Travis Konecny, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas
D- John Carlson, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenksi, Noah Dobson, Torey Krug, Adam Boqvist
G- Frederick Andersen, Carter Hart, Cal Petersen
Bench- Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Morgan Frost, Eeli Tolvanen, Luke Kunin
IR- Brad Marchand, Scott Perunovich
Farm- Mason McTavish, Lukas Reichel, Wyatt Johnston, Alex Turcotte, Kaiden Guhle

First off, this definitely passes the sniff test as a team which should be able to compete now in a 14-team league. Its weakness is in net; however, even the best goalies in the NHL will likely be at roughly the 100-fantasy points mark, and the majority will be clustered at 60-80, making it so the position is not crucial. The threshold question is whether another team in the league is on a more traditional rebuild. That matters because, for example, they might be a good fit to want Perunovich, who would be a big load to carry on IR for several months. Yes, I realize that as of September he was considered the top defenseman prospect in all of hockey, but the St. Louis blueline is crowded and Perunovich, even after returning from injury, might not make an impact for long enough that it merits putting him out there to see what offers he brings.

The prospects are all upper echelon and ones I'd try to keep, with the possible exception of McTavish, even though he might be the most hyped. Yes, I realize he was otherworldly at the most recent WJC, but I believe the fanfare surrounding him is so great as to likely net, in trade, such a high return that it would be difficult for McTavish himself to be able to pan out that well.

Poolies all too often don't stop to realize in many cases prospect buzz for a player can be so significant as to almost dictate that the player be moved, inasmuch as it'll be nearly impossible for the player to perform as well as was expected, especially in the near term. It's a variation on the important rule for established players that says when name value far outpaces actual value, it's usually time to pull the trade trigger. With prospects that can be scary, as there is a fear of letting go of what turns out to be an elite talent. That's when you pause to remember the much longer list of prospects who didn't work out nearly as well as expected, versus those who even came close to fulfilling their enormous promise. Long story short, I'd dangle McTavish to see if I get wowed.

As for streaming options, I think essentially anyone on the bench could potentially be dropped in favor of a hotter player. Yes, this is a deep league and the four on the bench all could contribute; however, I feel as though none are must owns. First on the chopping block though would be Kotkaniemi and Kunin. Despite still being young and once a top draft pick who was coveted enough by the Canes for them to offer sheet him, Kotkaneimi is getting to a point where I'm wondering if he's ever going to connect the dots. Kunin is benefitting from being on a shallow San Jose team and also is still young at 24. Like Kotkaniemi I see Kunin as at best a middle sixer who is unlikely to ever reach 60 points.

Frost and Tolvanen are the two who I'd wait the longest to drop/cycle, as Frost is under a new coach who might give him a chance to succeed that he hasn't had as yet, plus Philly needs him to step up. Meanwhile, Tolvanen looks to be on a path to success in Nashville, which has the depth to support several scoring lines. That's not to say either is untouchable – I'd just be more apt to toss aside Kotkaniemi and/or Kunin before either of those two.

As for players llsted in the active line-up, the only one I see as potentially being on the chopping block in Domi, although Chicago could be just what the doctor ordered for him, as he will get a chance to play a lot and might be able to step up as he has done in the past. I'd put him in the same echelon as Frost and Tolvanen.

Topic #7 – In a 16 team, keep 12 H2H league where three start at each forward position and skater categories are G, A, SOG, PIM, Specialty Team Points, GWG (including shootout), and Hits+Blocks, a Troy Terry owner has been offered Clayton Keller in trade. Both are eligible at RW only. Should they make the deal?

First off, both are downright lousy in banger categories, so the scales aren't being tilted there. Keller found success last season despite being a focal point for defenses and not having a great supporting cast. Terry's better production came when he hit his breakout threshold. Yes, he had an elevated SH%; however, he wasn't even on PP1 for most of the season, while for 2022-23 he's looking like he'll be a PP1 staple. And no question the Anaheim PP should be leaps and bounds above Arizona's.

Interestingly, I covered both in the same Goldipucks column back in May, where I felt the data suggested Keller's 2021-22 was too cold and Terry's just right. For Terry it largely boiled down to his SH% being so elevated and, at the time, concern he might not be a PP1 focal point. As for Keller, the data showed that his stats were downright superb considering the adverse playing circumstances that came with being on the Coyotes. In other words, for Keller to have thrived to the extent he did, despite playing for such a lousy team, suggested he's a superb talent in his own right and primed for stardom no matter what the circumstances.

Still, we also have to consider the categories, which somewhat favor goal scoring and thus Terry. Terry is no slouch, especially now that he's on PP1. I think the choice comes down to risk tolerance. The home run pick is Keller, who, of the two, I feel has the best chance to become a consistent 90+ point scorer. But Terry is hot on his heels, plays for a better team, and is now being treated as a star winger, making him likely the one with a higher floor. The safer pick is likely Terry, but Keller is the swing for the fences choice.

Topic #8 – In a 12 team, weekly H2H with daily line-ups, keep 7 + 1 prospect league, with starting line-ups of 3C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, plus 4IR and 1 prospect, and categories of G(3 for F, 3.5 for D), A(2 for F, 2.5 for D), +/-(1), PPG (1.5), PPA(1), SHP(0.5), SOG(0.4), BLK(0.7), W(2), GA(-1.5), SV(0.3), SO(3), a GM with the roster below was offered Jason Robertson for his Mika Zibanejad. Does the trade make sense, taking into account that last season both averaged 4.7 fantasy points per game?

C – Mika Zibanejad, Anze Kopitar, Josh Norris, Ryan O’Reilly
LW – Kyle Connor, Alex Ovechkin, Jeff Skinner
RW – Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Toffoli
D – Cale Makar, Victor Hedman, Adam Fox, Dougie Hamilton, Calen Addison
G – Andrei Vasilevskiy, Cal Petersen, Jonathan Quick, Brian Elliott
Prospect Keeper – Jake Oettinger(G)
IR – Nico Hischier (C), Jakub Chychrun(D), Patrik Laine(LW/RW)

Talk about a seemingly fair trade on paper, with both having identical scoring rates last season. But what's key is Robertson finished 31st in points per game among forwards who skated in at least half their team's games, despite ranking only 89th in average TOI per game, with only Matthew Tkachuk and Vladimir Tarasenko finishing with a higher points-per-game rate despite a lower TOI per game average. It was a similar story on the PP, with Robertson's PP time ranking him 83rd among forwards but him tying for 52nd in PPPts, with just Nikita Kucherov and David Perron tallying more PPPts despite a lower PPTOI. Also, Robertson not only has yet to reach his 200-game breakout threshold, but, like Hintz above, the coach – Rick Bowness – who limited his ice time is now gone. Does this mean that Robertson will see a huge spike in ice time? Put it his way – things can only improve.

For Zibs, what sticks out when looking at 2019-20 is his PP scoring rate was far above anything we'd seen from him in the past and since then. He also played in only 57 games, which is just above two-thirds of a season and he ended with 23 points in 12 games. In other words, we've yet to see a full campaign where Zibs was able to achieve success at a level that was anything near his 2019-20 outburst. As such, we can't really treat that like a benchmark, but rather more of a successful large chunk of a season punctuated with a short-term scoring deluge.

Still though, point per game numbers for Zibs seem achievable, as that's how he did over the course of a full season in 2021-22. And the scoring system favors him at least somewhat, since as we saw Zibs had an identical rate of fantasy points per game as Robertson despite Robertson scoring at a higher rate. But whereas we probably know what we're getting with Zibs, the same can't be said for Robertson due to him having yet to reach his 200-game breakout threshold and previously not being treated like a star player in terms of ice time.

What about the effect of the trade on the team as a whole? Yes, more centers start than at either wing, and this trade would leave the squad with more left wing eligible players than centers. But I'm not worried about a surplus of wingers, as that is generally a shallower position and could put the team in better spot to be able to trade from strength later on so as to shore up any weaknesses it has a center or elsewhere.

In the end, give me the guy who's already posted a full season scoring rate higher than all but one of Zibanejad's campaigns, is six years younger, has not yet even hit his breakout threshold, and whose ice time can only improve. Yes, I do trade Zibs here for Robertson. If the team ends up having a void at center, that can be addressed down the road via trading from strength it has at wing and/or on defense.

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