Ramblings: Komeback Karlsson, Necas Hot Start, Struggling Reinhart (Oct 30)
Ian Gooding
2022-10-30
Jake Oettinger has had a fantastic start, so it would be a shame if he were to miss time due to injury. Oettinger left Saturday's matinee match with the Rangers in the second period with a lower-body injury. According to Mike Heika of the team's website, Oettinger is expected to "see doctors and we'll know more on Monday." If you're in a weekly league, you should probably make other plans in net for next week.
Scott Wedgewood took over from Oettinger, allowing four goals on 17 shots in an eventual 6-3 loss to the Rangers. Wedgewood is one option if Oettinger is on your team, and he has shown better than he was on Saturday (.910 SV% with NJ/ARI/DAL last season).
Vincent Trocheck entered Saturday's game with a three-game point drought. He snapped that slump with two goals and an assist, giving him nine points in nine games. Playing in New York agrees with Trocheck so far, as he has been centering Artemi Panarin's line while also logging first-unit power-play minutes. Trocheck's shot total is also way up from last season, as he is averaging 3.7 SOG/GP and has no fewer than three shots in any game this season.
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Maybe keeping Karlsson isn't such a bad idea? Erik Karlsson was at it again on Saturday, scoring a pair of goals on five shots, giving him six goals and 11 points in 11 games this season. Immediately following his Saturday game, Karlsson was the league leader in both goals and points among defensemen. It seems as though he still has something left in the tank, although I'm still wary about the next injury. Whether you drafted Karlsson or not, this is great to see.
I hate to throw cold water on the Karlsson story, but there's a reality check beyond the obvious injury risk. Karlsson's six goals comes over his last eight games, which is scorching hot yet clearly unsustainable. Karlsson's shooting percentage currently sits at 22%, which is sky high for a defenseman. He has taken 12 shots over his last two games, which helps his cause. If he can continue shooting the puck on net, then the regression won't be as significant and you'll see more of this throughout the season.
With his game-winning goal with just under a minute in regulation, Nikita Kucherov extended his point streak to seven games. He has 11 points over those seven games, as well as goals in three consecutive games. Kucherov has been a model of consistency with points in all but one of his nine games this season.
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Anton Forsberg was tagged with a loss after allowing four goals to the Panthers, but it wasn't due to lack of effort. Forsberg made 53 saves, keeping the Senators in the game. Even though Forsberg has more losses (4) than wins (3), he has quality starts in six of his seven games this season. That includes quality starts in each of his last four games. When Cam Talbot returns, I still think Forsberg receives around 50 percent of the starts for Ottawa.
The following Panthers recorded three points and at least a plus-3 on Saturday: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, and Brandon Montour. Barkov, Tkachuk, and Montour each also took at least six shots.
It's not all positives for Panthers' scorers, however, as Sam Reinhart continues to struggle. Reinhart was held without a point again on Saturday. Reinhart has yet to score a goal and has just two assists in nine games, with zero points at even strength. Reinhart at least got in on the shot party, firing five shots on Forsberg.
Reinhart has been moved off Barkov's line and onto a line with Sam Bennett and Rudolfs Balcers, as Tkachuk and Barkov have joined forces. Obviously, this is not good for Reinhart's value, yet line combinations change all the time. As well, Reinhart is averaging nearly three shots per game, which is more than 0.5 SOG/GP more than last season. You could consider dropping him in a very shallow league, but on one of my teams I'll be waiting it out with the point-per-game scorer from last season.
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Rick's monthly mailbag column is in just over a week's time, and he's still looking for questions. To get yours to him, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.
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Gabriel Vilardi has registered one goal and four shots in three consecutive games, including on Saturday against the Leafs. Vilardi has been a surprising point-per-game player (11 PTS in 10 GP) so far, with seven of those points in the form of goals. He's only 23, but he already seems like a post-hype sleeper. His recent run of success has even vaulted him onto the Kings' top line with Anze Kopitar and onto the first power-play unit as well. The advanced stats (25.9 SH%, 15.2 5on5 SH%, 4.2 PTS/60) all point to serious regression, but he could still have a very productive year if he can stick in those important roles.
John Tavares scored a power-play goal for the Leafs in their loss, extending his point streak to four games. All four of JT's goals and three of his six assists have been on the power play. Not surprisingly, Tavares is tied for second (with a bunch of other players) in power-play points, although he is further down the list in total points. Tavares is also averaging nearly four shots per game, up from the 3.0 SOG/GP he averaged last season.
The Leafs may have lost three games in a row, but Saturday was the first time that Ilya Samsonov did not post a quality start this season (6 GP). It didn't help that the Leafs had to kill six penalties, so the loss was hardly all on Samsonov.
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You can finally relax if you've been waiting on Lucas Raymond. The Red Wings sophomore winger scored his first two goals of the season in his eighth game of the season. He also entered Saturday's game with no points in his last five games, which was obviously concerning. Raymond helped his cause on Saturday by firing a season-high seven shots as well. Raymond's linemate Dylan Larkin assisted on both of Raymond's goals.
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Martin Necas had another strong game on Saturday, scoring a goal and adding an assist with five shots and three hits. The Canes forward already has 11 points in just eight games this season. In addition, he has points in seven of those eight games. Necas has also been promoted to the top line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov along with the first power-play unit. Almost all of his advanced stats suggest a regression, but one metric actually shows a potential improvement. Only one of Necas's six assists have been secondary assists, so he could at least be a decent source of assists if he can stay on the top line and power play.
If you're still not sold on Necas, compare him with fellow Cane and popular preseason sleeper Seth Jarvis. A Twitter follower pointed out that Necas is averaging considerably more icetime than Jarvis at the moment. It's about a four-minute difference over the season, but an eight-minute gap on Saturday. Jarvis is far behind Necas at the moment with three points in eight games. Something to keep an eye on.
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The Montreal offense exploded on Saturday with seven goals in St. Louis. Christian Dvorak netted his first career hat trick while Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield each posted three-point games as well. Dvorak broke a seven-game point drought to start the season with an assist on Thursday against Buffalo, so this output certainly wasn't expected. All three goals were in the third period.
Jordan Binnington started the season with four consecutive quality starts, but that streak was broken on Saturday with a really bad start. Binnington allowed six goals on just 24 shots. The Blues play only twice next week, which is something to consider if you need to make a weekly roster decision for your goalies.
Jordan Kyrou broke a four-game point drought with a pair of goals in the loss. Kyrou entered the game with just one point (another goal), so he has yet to record an assist this season. That isn't quite as worrisome as it looks, since the Blues have played only seven games this season. With just two more games during the coming week, they'll be the team with the fewest number of games played… which means they'll also be the team with the most games remaining.
Pavel Buchnevich returned to the Blues' lineup on Saturday, although he was held without a point and was a minus-2.
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Quite the comeback on Long Island. The Stanley Cup champion Avalanche have now lost back-to-back games.
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Darcy Kuemper made 34 saves in a 3-0 shutout over Nashville, which was his first shutout as a member of the Capitals. The win was a costly one for the Capitals, as both John Carlson and T.J. Oshie left the game in the first period with lower-body injuries.
Dmitry Orlov stepped up in Carlson's absence, taking on first-unit power play minutes while logging a game-high 26 minutes with an assist, plus-2, four shots, and four hits. Orlov is worth adding/starting next week should Carlson be forced to miss time.
Evgeny Kuznetsov is still a member of the goalless club, as he has now been held without a goal for eight games. He was back on the first-unit power play on Saturday after a brief exile to the second unit. Kuznetsov has also been held without a point in his last three games. That being said, he has five assists over his eight games, so he has at least provided something for fantasy teams this season.
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Stuart Skinner was given the start in the Battle of Alberta on Saturday and he delivered with 40 saves in a 3-2 win. That start was Skinner's second in three games and should signal that Jay Woodcroft is at least considering starting Skinner more often. I'd stop short in calling Skinner the starter here, as Jack Campbell is on a new team and will be given plenty of opportunities to turn it around. Campbell is also the prized free agent signing who was expected to provide the Oilers with more stability in net than say, Mike Smith.
Campbell may not be the definition of a goalie with stable numbers (just ask Leafs fans), but at the moment it appears that he won't be one of the league's highest-volume starters, at least while Skinner is playing so well. In the meantime, Skinner deserves a pickup in many league formats (22% rostered in Yahoo/46% in Fantrax).
Jonathan Huberdeau had to leave the game briefly in the first period, raising concerns that he was injured. After the game, Darryl Sutter provided us with the necessary reassurance that it was nothing to worry about, as we'd expect from him.
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Jake Guentzel returned to the Penguins lineup after missing the past four games, scoring his team's only goal in a 3-1 loss to Seattle. By the way, Pittsburgh has lost four consecutive games in their road trip to the northwest corner of the league (Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Seattle). It doesn't help that they had to play two pairs of back-to-backs.
Jaden Schwartz continues to be hot, posting a goal and an assist in the Kraken win. He's now recorded multiple points in back-to-back games and has 10 points in 10 games this season. Schwartz is taking over three shots per game, which is helping his cause and ensures that his shooting percentage (15.6%) isn't a ridiculously high number. He even has a super-low 847 PDO and 20.0 secondary assist percentage. Continue to roll with Schwartz while he's hot, but beware of the next injury from this certified Band-Aid Boy.
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Happy Halloween! Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.
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Saw Necas live yesterday. his game has caught up to his body, or is that the other way around? he’s got a new confidence especially between the dots.