Ramblings: Elvis, Bratt, Vanecek, Rossi, Hellebuyck, Guenther and more … (Oct. 31)

Dobber

2022-10-31

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In the fantasy world we typically think of the Blue Jackets as a lower-scoring team that is pretty frugal in terms of giving up goals against. When they added Johnny Hockey, it would be fair of you to think that this team had solved the former. So far it turns out that the former issue is still not really resolved – and now the goaltending and defense have been terrible. The Jackets have given up six or more goals in three of the last five games. Elvis Merzlikins was in net for two of them and his fantasy owners are getting worried. I have long been a fan of Merzlikins, early in his career even considering him one of the three best young goalies in the world in terms of talent and NHL-readiness (Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin the others). His SV% was 0.923 as a rookie in 2019-20, slipping to 0.916 and then 0.907 last year. So far this season he is at 0.863 after giving up all seven goals to New Jersey on Sunday. I must admit my confidence is shaken for this season. But long-term I'm still a backer. You see production nosedive like this for a season or two and then bounce back all the time. Once a goalie is strong for a sustained length of time, he has a bounceback year if his talent level is high and he gets enough of a leash. You saw it with Pekka Rinne, for example. Sergei Bobrovsky, too. Horrible seasons in decline, only to bounce back and win Vezinas. Merzlikins' contract ($5.4M AAV each of the next four years after this one). Without that contract, then I'd be much (much) less certain of a rebound. But this team will keep throwing him out there, letting him work through this.

One thing that makes the situation more interesting is the fact that Daniil Tarasov is one of my favorite goalie prospects. High-end talent and upside. But he's struggling too, which makes me suspect it's the system. So either the team eventually buys in, or the coach gets fired. Either way, the goaltending numbers will turn around. If you have the room on your bench, I would hold Merzlikins there. It will be worth it, just give it a dozen more games. On Sunday, Elvis did give up seven goals – but his team allowed 53 shots! Columbus needs to figure it out, and they will.

Tarasov, by the way, is just a little too young still. With Joonas Korpisalo called back up, look for Tarasov to get in some quality AHL time. Korpisalo could steal the net short-term from Elvis until Elvis gets rolling again.

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Two more points for Jesper Bratt gives him an eye-popping 15 on the campaign. He's now up to fourth in the league. I've been a true believer of this underrated player since early last year. I think he's a better fantasy own than Jack Hughes both long- and short-term. Yes, I said it.

Three different defensemen for the Devils picked up points and none of them had the name Hamilton nor Severson. For what it's worth, Severson's puck luck is down a little and his PP results are down a lot (not sustainable). He's steadily getting 33% of the available PP ice time and usually his PPIPP sits between 62% and 80%. What all this means is that his ES point total is one or two points lower than if things happened normally (and will happen over a longer stretch of time, statistically speaking) – and it means his PP point total is one or two points lower than normal as well. Over time, these will balance out. Severson has two points in nine games, but under normal circumstances would have five. This will balance out over the next month or two and I consider him a 'buy low' opportunity.

One top fantasy hockey own who didn't get in on the fun with the Devils? Alexander Holtz. The 2020 seventh overall pick was a healthy scratch for the fifth time in six games. Honestly, just send the guy down. Bring him up when an injury hits the top six. If I had him in my league, I would like to see him go down and pound out 20 points in 20 games, get called up brimming with confidence in December, and have a great second half. This press box stuff is not good, because it tells me they'll keep putting him in the lineup every two or three games and give him 10 minutes on the fourth line. No thank you.

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With Vitek Vanecek posting three consecutive Quality Starts, and Mackenzie Blackwood struggling, it would appear that Vanecek has at least temporarily taken on the starting job. I believe in Vanecek a lot more than Blackwood, if that adds any weight to your decision making here.

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Marco Rossi has been struggling and now taken off Matt Boldy's line. I'm still confident that eventually we will be saying "Boldy is on Rossi's line". But until Rossi does something, we'll stick with the original statement. Rossi played Sunday with Brandon Duhaime and Tyson Jost. That's a step away from press box and two steps away from AHL. And again – I don't mind top prospects going down. It's all about confidence at that age.

Ryan Hartman left the game with an injury and his spot was filled in by both Mats Zuccarello and Mason Shaw. Boldy played with Hartman and scored one prior to the injury – and then again after the injury (while Shaw was in that spot).

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Jonathan Toews has points in five straight. A Chicago player not named 'Kane' doing this is actually quite noteworthy. I believe in a rebound year for him, even at his age, because last season was coming off a full year of being off the ice. To me that's a Mulligan for proven players like him. But on a team like Chicago, what is a "rebound year"? If he stays there the entire campaign (doubtful), it still probably means high-50s, flirting with 60.

Jarred Tinordi was drafted 22nd overall in 2010 and couldn't get his NHL career to take off. But in 2019, at the age of 27, he started making the odd appearance. And since that time he has learned that using his 6-6, 229-pound frame for bodychecking is his ticket to getting called up. Early in his pro efforts he was averaging about 1.75 Hits per game. But since 2019 that average is closer to 2.75. This season he has played every game so far for a Chicago team in need of bodies on the back end. Tinordi has averaged 3.78 Hits per game so far. Besides six Hits on Sunday, the 30-year-old Tinordi picked up two assists, which I believe is his first ever multi-point effort in the NHL.

Tinordi makes for a sneaky-good Dobbernomics own (value), for those who play this awesome free game…

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The Leafs played the only team that had yet to win two games…and that team then won their second game. Toronto has lost four straight and you have to think that Sheldon Keefe is on the hot seat. I know Kyle Dubas is a patient man, but this team has the Flyers under John Tortorella, followed by Boston and Carolina. Not exactly easy wins there.

Toronto line combos Sunday as Keefe scrambles to salvage the road trip:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
13:4824.8MARNER – BUNTING – MATTHEWS02-28753.3131056.5
8:4815.8KAMPF – ASTON-REESE – ENGVALL0004450.08947.1
8:4215.7TAVARES – JARNKROK – KERFOOT01-15935.771335.0
6:0010.8NYLANDER – MALGIN – ROBERTSON1013537.54640.0
1:393.0TAVARES – KERFOOT – NYLANDER00010100.03260.0

I thought this new Nylander line showed a lot of promise. We all know Robertson's potential, and Malgin has underrated upside if he can ever get the opportunity (he scored a nice one).

Trevor Zegras scored twice and has three or more shots in four consecutive games. He also won seven of nine at the faceoff circle and has actually been quite strong there over that four-game span.

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Connor Hellebuyck has thus far put forth a Vezina-caliber season. Last Thursday he was ridiculously good. Yes, he gave up four goals but that was on 40 shots. His team was badly outplayed and he stole the game. And that was the very next game after posting a shutout. So he went into Sunday with two great games under his belt and he went out nearly stole another. Allowing just one goal on the first 47 shots that he face, Hellebuyck's teammates were unable to give him the W. He let in a pretty sweet goal by Jack Eichel here in overtime:

Anyway, despite the outcome, I haven't seen Hell-Boy this dialed in since the 2019-20 season. Buckle up Winnipeg fans.

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Don't look now, but it appears that teenaged rookie Dylan Guenther is starting to settle in. His two assists Sunday give him four points in his last four games (three on the power play) despite still seeing only about 12 minutes per contest. He was given some ES time alongside Clayton Keller on Sunday, so the opportunities are starting to emerge. If he can work his way up to the top PP unit, he could really blossom. It's a situation worth watching.

That second unit for Arizona is really humming though. I already noted Guenther has three PPPts. Mattias Maccelli has four and has been in on 100% of the PP goals scored when he's out there. Perhaps they should move Keller to that unit and make it the top one.

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Ontario DFS fans – I've just discovered a DFS company that operates in the province. OwnersBox started out as a weekly fantasy site (so I guess…WFS?) but expanded to the DFS format and maintain operations in Ontario. You can visit them here, and you can have a free DFS play if you use promo code "DOBBER".

We have made OwnersBox our fourth DFS company that we provide tools for with our DFS subscription. For $99.99 you get access for the full season and playoffs to these tools for four big DFS sites – including our patented hot/cold and weighted average formulas that optimize your lineups, as well as our stack generator (which helps you stack your DFS lineup if you want to focus on a certain team). You can get the subscription here.

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Speaking of Daily Fantasy in Ontario, I have a meeting with Ontario's Minister of Finance on Friday. I will keep you posted on how it goes or follow me on Twitter for an earlier update. Rest assured, I've done my homework and worked with several influential people in the fantasy sports industry to get everything I need to present our case. Daily Fantasy needs to be removed from the umbrella of sports gambling and be given its own set of rules. We need to bring the other big companies back into Ontario for DFS.

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See you next Monday.

One Comment

  1. Denis Desrosiers 2022-10-31 at 12:52

    Goalie post link not working for me. Am I the only one?

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