Eastern Edge: Slow Starts for Sam Reinhart and Teuvo Teravainen
Brennan Des
2022-11-01
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss two players off to slow starts this year: Teuvo Teravainen and Sam Reinhart. We'll also highlight an under-the-radar name to keep an eye on.
The 28-year-old winger has established himself as a strong fantasy asset in recent years, scoring at or around a 70-point pace in three of the last four seasons. He's off to a slow start this year, posting just three points in his first nine appearances. Power-play production was a big part of Teravainen's offense last season as he tallied 31 points with the man advantage through 77 games. He was a prominent piece of the team's top power-play unit, seeing 65% of Carolina's total time with the man advantage. This season, he's stuck on the second unit, away from the Hurricanes' top offensive stars. He's seeing just 43% of Carolina's total power-play time and doesn't have a single point with the man advantage through nine games.
If Teravainen's on your fantasy roster, I'd exercise some patience because I don't think the team's power-play configurations are set in stone. Carolina's PP currently ranks 24th in the league, sporting a success rate of 17.1%. There's certainly room to improve, so the team could very well tinker with its combinations and put Teravainen back on the top unit in the near future. Such an outcome appears all the more likely when you consider that Stefan Noesen is currently the fifth man on the top unit. Noesen doesn't have the same track record of power-play success that Teravainen does, so he could fall off out of that top group at a moment's notice. With that being said, Noesen has three power-play points in eight appearances, so there's no reason to demote him any time soon. One might even argue that Noesen is better suited to play a net-front role on the power-play, while Teravainen's skillset overlaps with other players on the top unit. I think such an argument underestimates Teravainen's versatility, but time will tell if the coaching staff feels the same way.
Overall, I'm not too worried about Teravainen's fantasy outlook this season. He's seen, and should continue seeing, a lot of time beside star forward Sebastian Aho at even strength. Aho and Teravainen have displayed strong chemistry over the years, and I think it's only a matter of time before Teravainen finds the scoresheet more often. I think he'll see a more prominent role with the man advantage at some point, but even if he doesn't, more even-strength production should bring his fantasy value higher than it is right now. I've never been a fan of selling low on a player. So, even though Teravainen's offensive ceiling looks lower now that Martin Necas is breaking out and passing him on the depth chart, I'd wait until his output improves and his stock rises before trading him – in order to maximize return. This is a player whose worst season over the past five years saw him score at a 60-point pace. I wouldn't drop him to the waiver wire and lose him for nothing unless your league is shallower than my ex-girlfriend.
Last season was Reinhart's first with the Panthers and he managed a career-high 82 points in 78 games. Unfortunately, his second year in Florida isn't off to a great start as he has just two points through nine appearances. His reduced production isn't a result of reduced opportunity as he's seeing three and a half more minutes of ice time per game than he did last season. However, he is being tasked with tougher minutes. Last year, he spent most of his time beside Mason Marchment and Anton Lundell on the team's 'third' line. Being deployed on the third line meant more favourable matchups for Reinhart as he benefitted from playing against weaker opponents. In contrast, he's spent most of his minutes on the top line with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe this season, which means he's getting matched up against the opposition's best players and is often tasked with shutting them down. This difference in utilization is illustrated in his offensive zone start percentage. Last year, he started 56% of his shifts in the offensive zone and 44% of his shifts in the defensive zone. This year, those numbers have flipped and he's now starting just 44% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Now, it's not like Reinhart doesn't have the talent to produce against tough matchups. When he was with the Sabres, he spent a lot of time beside Jack Eichel on the top line. That line was the only real scoring threat that Buffalo had, so Reinhart faced off against other teams' best lines or best shutdown lines and still scored at a 60-point pace. I think it's fair to expect more than a 60-point pace from Reinhart this year since the Panthers are deeper than those Sabres were. In other words, his line shouldn't always be the sole focus of the opposition's defensive strategies, as was this case during his time in Buffalo.
Although both of his points this year have come on the power play, it's important to note that Florida has been awful with the man advantage so far. They sit 29th in the league with a 9.8% success rate – a far cry from the 24.4% rate that ranked fifth in the league last year. Power-play production was important for Reinhart last season as he tallied 31 points with the man advantage through 78 games (0.397 PPPs/game). Having two points with the man advantage in nine appearances this year (0.222 PPPs/game) isn't going to cut it. The Panthers are still testing out different combinations on the power play as key pieces from last year aren't available anymore. Anthony Duclair and Aaron Ekblad are out injured, while Matthew Tkachuk brings a different skillset to the top group than Jonathan Huberdeau did before. There's certainly enough talent to ice a more successful unit, but it may take time for everyone to develop chemistry.
Outside of deployment and power-play production, it's fair to say that Reinhart has just been unlucky to start the year. He's normally an efficient shooter, converting on at least 15% of his shots in recent years. Despite putting 27 pucks on net this season, he's still looking for his first goal. I expect the floodgates will open once that first one goes in. If you have an opportunity to buy low on Reinhart, I suggest you take it.
Keep an Eye on…
Shane Pinto – The Sens rookie has six goals in eight games this season. His strong play has earned him a shot on the second line between Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat for Tuesday's tilt with Tampa. Pinto is currently scoring on 43% of his shots, which is far from a sustainable success rate. However, given the fact that he's sitting on the waiver wire in 73% of Yahoo leagues, you can pick him up at no cost, ride this hot streak, and part ways when/if he cools down.
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Ex-girlfriend indeed! Very funny.