Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we will scan for intriguing outliers in terms of luck (PDO), involvement in team scoring (IPP), shifting opportunity, Breakout Thresholds, and shooting percentage.

It is an interesting time to pull the trigger on trades in keeper and dynasty formats. We are now about an eighth of the way through the season, which is just long enough for poolies to be wondering if cold and hot streaks are legitimate. Is Gabe Vilardi (LAK) a point-per-game player now? Is Alexander Holtz (NJD) going to be a healthy scratch all year?

Further, a boatload of rookies have recently played their tenth NHL games and burned off the first year of their Entry Level Contracts. That is a fantastic sign for managers who want to see what their super-rookie can do with a sustained stretch of NHL games; on the flip side, it also means these rookies will be headed into their first 82-game grind and will likely struggle at some point if they are not doing so already.

While the value of a young player theoretically increases when they stick in the NHL, I actually think it often has the opposite effect in fantasy: returning to Holtz, for instance, would he be a more valuable asset scoring at a point-per-game pace in a top-line AHL role or watching the Devils play from the press box every night? Poolies tend to fixate on production, so someone like Holtz is an increasingly ripe buy-low candidate right now.

Here is a quick list of rookies who recently played their tenth NHL game in 2022-23:

Matty Beniers (SEA)

Calen Addison (MIN)

JJ Peterka (BUF)

Shane Pinto (OTT)

Cole Perfetti (WPG)

Kent Johnson (CBJ)

Jake Sanderson (OTT)

Mason McTavish (ANA)

Owen Power (BUF)

Arber Xhekaj (MON)

Kaiden Guhle (MON)

Marco Rossi (MIN)

Other names of note who are right on the cusp (as of Saturday morning):

Dylan Guenther (ARI) – nine games

Jack Quinn (BUF) – nine games

Mason Shaw (MIN) – six games

Brandt Clarke (LAK) – nine games

Dylan Holloway (EDM) – seven games

Juraj Slafkovsky (MON) – eight games

Alexander Holtz (NJD) – four games

Jake Neighbours (STL) – nine games

Arizona has been very clear when it comes to Guenther, though: he's staying.

This is one of those great days.

Dylan Guenther's family got to deliver the news that he's staying in the NHL. 🥰 pic.twitter.com/feMHWWmZRq

— Arizona Coyotes (@ArizonaCoyotes) November 5, 2022

Keep your eyes peeled for announcements like this one moving forward for the players on that second list. There are some interesting names there.

Mason Shaw is easily the least well-known of the eight but he bears watching too. He has largely played in the Wild's bottom six over his first few games but recently saw reps alongside Joel Eriksson-Ek and Matt Boldy—including a short look with the second power play unit alongside Marco Rossi.

Shaw is a 24-year-old fourth round pick from way back in 2017 who has a surprisingly strong trajectory dating back to his WHL days: he went just under a ppg in his Draft-1 year in the WHL and then posted 94 points in 71 games as a draft eligible—a pace closely comparable to Matthew Savoie's impressive 2021-22 season, for reference. Shaw then spent a few seasons in the AHL, where he dealt with a series of frustrating knee injuries.

Here is his Hockey Prospecting profile:

As far as injuries go, knee problems are among the most concerning. However, Shaw scored 52 points in 62 games last year, proving he could make a significant impact at the professional level while playing an extended stretch of games. While that production is impressive, it is also intriguing to note that he also piled up a whopping 106 penalty minutes last year. So far in the NHL, he is averaging two hits per game while averaging just over 11 minutes of ice time. Multi-cat beast alert. Since the emergence of Tanner Jeannot (NAS) last year, I am constantly on the lookout for the next Jeannot, and it just might be Mason Shaw.

In the following sequence, after Marco Rossi levels Juraj Slafkovsky (!!!) into the boards, Shaw jumps to his defence and takes down Jake Evans. With all the uber-skilled young guys the Wild boast these days, they will need guys like Shaw to step up in moments like this, as ugly as it looks. He is a Swiss army knife type who can both score and drop the gloves.

Marco Rossi finishes Slafkovsky. Mason Shaw drops the gloves with Jake Evans pic.twitter.com/ZIsuyqTafL

— Spoked Z (@SpokedZ) November 2, 2022

Returning to Guenther for a moment, a couple of his advanced stats really jump off the page. He has scored a very respectable six points in his nine games so far but remarkably has played a part in every single goal Arizona has tallied with him on the ice (100% IPP) and yet has somehow also been extremely unlucky (879). I imagine things will more or less balance out as both stats regress to the mean but that is certainly an odd combination.

Guenther has been playing alongside Clayton Keller lately, which is exactly where he belongs, and has been receiving a solid 40% of the available power play time. If his ice time increases (currently averaging under 13 minutes) and he works his way onto PP1, the 19-year-old could take a serious run at the Calder despite playing for an incredibly shaky Arizona squad.

As I pointed out in a recent Prospect Ramblings over at Dobber Prospects, imagine what will happen to Guenther's already high value if (when) the Coyotes land Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, or Leo Carlsson in the upcoming entry draft after he posts a strong NHL rookie season. Despite Guenther's hot start, I increasingly feel he is a buy low right now. I would also pay a high price to acquire Logan Cooley, even though his high draft slot and point-per-game start to his college career means he won't be cheap either. Guenther, Cooley, and Keller plus one of the 2023 Big Four will be a very attractive core to own a piece of moving forward even though the Coyotes are the NHL's longest running joke (besides the Leafs not winning the Cup since the 60s) and are currently playing in a tiny college arena. Strike now.

I've mentioned Holtz a couple times already but just a quick reminder that you should be bombarding his owner in your league with offers right now. There is no way managers are happy seeing him get repeatedly healthy scratched while his former Swedish counterpart, Lucas Raymond, heats up for the Red Wings and the rest of the Devils forwards continue to score in droves.

Feel free to stoke the panic fires of your fellow poolies but rest assured that Holtz continues to be a premier fantasy asset in keeper and dynasty formats.

Alexander Holtz is having a big year in the AHL this year. Very Trevor Zegrasy D+2 production thus far.#NJDevils pic.twitter.com/8aTfEKlhKE

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) February 4, 2022

Philip Tomasino (NAS) is likewise an excellent buy low right now because he has not yet seen NHL action in 2022-23 despite posting a solid 35-point-pace rookie season last year. I own him in several leagues and am feeling low on him these days primarily because he plays for Nashville. Apparently a victim of the Predators' depth at forward, Tomasino has started the year with Milwaukee (AHL), a club that traditionally performs well in the standings because they prioritize a gritty, team-first approach and tend to highlight their veterans.

In spite of that, Tomasino has five goals and seven points in his first seven AHL games this year, showing that he deserves to be featured in an NHL top six. Kiefer Sherwood, one of the players conceivably ahead of Tomasino on the depth chart at Right Wing just cleared waivers and will now play for Milwaukee. I expect Tomasino to be called up at some point, but it continues to be very frustrating to own high-upside Nashville prospects.

PHIL. TOMASINO. LADIES & GENTS. pic.twitter.com/PuDTp9hDxL

— Milwaukee Admirals (@mkeadmirals) October 27, 2022

One player who has flown under the radar so far in 2022-23 is Yegor Chinakhov (CBJ). Although he is firmly in the Jackets' bottom six, he is currently playing on an exciting Kid Line alongside 2021 Draft picks Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson and receiving limited time on the second PP unit. He has been a bit unlucky to start the year (967 PDO) and is receiving favourable deployment when he does hit the ice (60% OZ starts), plus he has contributed six points and a hit per game over his first 11 games.

With Jakub Voracek out, Yegor Chinakhov moves up with Roslovic and Nyquist. Eric Robinson with Sillinger and Johnson. Fourth line is Foudy-Kuraly-Olivier. #CBJ

— Jeff Svoboda (@JacketsInsider) November 5, 2022

Chinakhov owners would love to see him use his shot more often (1.1 shots/game) but his high IPP (86%) is encouraging and suggests he is finding his bearings at the NHL level. It will still be another couple seasons before the Russian hits his BT but there are some encouraging signs here.

Sheesh, Yegor Chinakhov can really rip a puck. 🥵 pic.twitter.com/J2xPyrxmdW

— NHL (@NHL) October 23, 2022

Another young player I am watching closely right now is Casey Mittelstadt (BUF). Because he took so much flak and was widely given a firm "Bust" label after the Sabres took him 8th overall in 2017 (ahead of Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris, Robert Thomas, Jake Oettinger, etc.), I have a feeling that many managers have a hangover of sorts in how they value him.

Mittelstadt is currently rocking a 52-point pace with seven points in his first 11 games (five on the PP). His shooting percentage (5.3%) is way below his career average (10.6%), suggesting that he will see an uptick in goals in the near future, and he has recently passed his 200-game Breakout Threshold. A 25% increase on the 33-point pace he averaged over his first 200 games would only boost him into the low 40s, but I think there is a case to be made here based on his pedigree and opportunity for that number to be higher.

Buffalo does have surprisingly strong Forward depth this year, however, so this is a situation to monitor moving forward. Mittelstadt has clicked well with a rejuvenated Victor Ollofsson but the two have been playing largely in the bottom six and mostly seeing looks on the Sabres' PP2. To really take off, Mittelstadt will need to join the top unit and see more consistent reps at five on five, preferably with more exposure to players like Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch.

Perfect sauce from Casey Mittelstadt to Victor Olofsson.

Sabres take a 3-1 lead. pic.twitter.com/11wtgPlgmw

— The Charging Buffalo (@TheChargingBUF) October 23, 2022

In one of my leagues, I traded Gabe Vilardi (LAK) for Morgan Frost (PHI) and Jordan Spence (LAK) after he went a point-per-game over the first four or five games of the 2022-23 season. I had held him on my farm over the past couple years as he dealt with back problems and spent the bulk of last year in the AHL, so I jumped at the first opportunity to net a decent return for him.

Weeks after that trade, I am feeling acres of regret. Vilardi now has 13 points in 13 games with almost three shots per game on the Kings' top line alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. He is seeing more ice time than ever and is featured prominently on their PP on a unit with Kopitar, Kempe, and Kevin Fiala. Meanwhile Frost was a healthy scratch recently and Spence has ripped it up in the AHL but is still not seeing time with the Kings.

Is Vilardi's recent success legitimate and maintainable?

The answer sure looks positive. He is still ~100 games out from his BT and his shooting percentage is about seven points higher than his career average, but he has a couple seasons of professional AHL experience under his belt and is shooting the puck more than ever before. His excellent IPP of 87% suggests he is not just a passenger on his line, which has easily been the King's best: last game, for instance, they had 10 shots on net versus only two against. They are controlling play, and Vilardi is right in the middle of it all.

While Vilardi likely won't finish with 80+ points, he looks like a safe bet to exceed sixty with solid shot and PPP totals. I definitely jumped the gun on shipping him out. Beyond fantasy, however, it is great to see a young player like Vilardi stick with it and work hard to transcend his injury troubles to reach the heights he is experiencing now.

Finally, has anyone noticed that Daniel Sprong (SEA), 25, is currently on a 96-point pace? After missing six out of the Kraken's first seven games, he has now scored seven in his last five. That production looks even more impressive when you consider that he is averaging ten minutes a night on the fourth line with Ryan Donato and Morgan Geekie. He has gotten incredibly lucky (1147 PDO) and will not be able to sustain that success without an increase in ice time and probably better linemates too, but he has always flashed high-end skill and makes a decent streamer in the short term.

The Seattle Kraken absolutely deservedly defeated the Buffalo Sabres 5-1 yesterday. Daniel Sprong was the best player of the game in our eyes. He played only around 10 minutes, but still added three points and 83% share at xG was the highest value among all skaters! Awesome! pic.twitter.com/L8M34bweuK

— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) October 26, 2022

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.