Ramblings: 32 of the Biggest Fantasy Surprises Thus Far (Nov 6)

Alexander MacLean

2022-11-06

I wanted to run through the NHL and list off some of the biggest surprises for me thus far in the fantasy realm.

Teams in order of NHL standings as of Nov 4:

Boston Bruins: Believe it or not, but I'm not too surprised that they have been able to manage to survive the lack of depth early in the year as Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and others were out with injuries. The biggest surprise in my eyes is the goalie timeshare, and the fact that Linus Ullmark has started eight of their 11 games. In my eyes, Swayman is the better goalie and the goalie of the future. Yes Ullmark has the contract, but I was expecting that to just bring the timeshare close to even. It may shake out closer to 50/50 as the season wears on, but right now Ullmark is the undisputed starter.

Vegas Golden Knights: People wondered if this team was going to struggle due to their lack of depth. Mark Stone's back was a worry, Jack Eichel's condition was a worry, and without Robin Lehner to backstop them, there were a lot of questions to be answered. Well, Nic Hague signed just in time, Eichel has looked fantastic, Stone has been healthy, and Logan Thompson (and backup Adin Hill) is making the goaltending position look like a strength rather than a weakness. However, the biggest surprise is the depth, and how productive Chandler Stephenson, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith have been, with 10, nine, and eight points respectively through 12 games. They may drop off a little, but this looks more like a sign of things to come than a blip.

New Jersey Devils: I was in on this offence this summer, and based on everything they showed last year, we knew they were going to be a playoff team as long as they got decent goaltending. However, the goaltending still hasn't been great, with a negative goals-saved-above-average stat, and a save percentage below the .900 mark (the league average is .905). In spite of this, they're still dominating, and it's because of their surprising team defence, and ability to limit shots. That is going to favour one of the goalies as they settle in, and it's likely going to be Vitek Vanecek, as he has looked better thus far than the currently injured Mackenzie Blackwood.

Carolina Hurricanes: Teuvo Teravainen's struggles have been surprising, and he has been touched on in a few of the recent ramblings. He did get two points on Friday though, and things look to be turning around. The biggest surprise has to go to Martin Necas though, who has 17 points in his first 11 games, and is making us all look silly for thinking he would be stuck on the third line scoring 40 points again.

Dallas Stars: Denis Gurianov was supposed to take a big step under a new coach, add scoring depth, and cash in one the prove-it deal he signed in the summer. He's put up only two points in 10 games, and already been healthy scratched once. I still feel that eventually he will put things together, but I am very surprised that we still aren't seeing it yet.

Buffalo Sabres: Between Rasmus Dahlins' scoring streak, Casey Mittlestadt emerging as a real second-line centre, Tage Thompson's six-point night, and the general success of the team, there are lots of options for surprises. The fact that no one is talking about rookie JJ Peterka and his seven points in 11 games though is the real surprise to me. He wasn't even supposed to be a lineup regular, and is producing in spite of only playing third-line minutes. If he could usurp Kyle Okposo for a top-six opportunity, then he may be the early rookie of the year dark horse.

New York Islanders: The team can actually score goals! They're top-10 in the league in goals for, and with Ilya Sorokin playing as well as we knew he could, this team looks to be on a playoff trajectory. Brock Nelson and Anders Lee scoring above a point-per-game isn't going to last much longer though, so definitely try to sell high on them soon.

Edmonton Oilers: Stuart Skinner has been by-far the better goalie this year. This is why I spend very little capital on goalies. Campbell will still win 30 games with the Oilers this year, but his ratio stats may not be pretty, and Skinner is looking to steal a bigger slice of the pie than initially anticipated.

Seattle Kraken: I think the biggest surprise is where the Kraken are in the standings, which is compounded by the fact that it isn't because of an improvement in net. In fact, starter Phillipp Grubauer is sidelined, and somehow Martin Jones is holding the fort with his 0.893 save percentage. Their deep offence has been the main reason for the hot start. At this point, fourth-liner Daniel Sprong is the only one playing at a point-per-game pace. We may see 10 50-point-players, but not a single one that hits 70.

New York Rangers: There's nothing hugely surprising going on here. Artemi Panarin is carrying the offence, no one outside the first power play unit has a point with the man-advantage, amd Sammy Blais and his top-line-billing in training camp failed to produce. With Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko each sporting five points in 12 games, it's surprising that we don't hear more about how they're both busts. They've showed well thus far, and even in one-year leagues I'm checking in to see if the price is right.

Winnipeg Jets: Surprising to maybe just me, but Josh Morrissey is running the top power play unit and not Neal Pionk. Kyle Connor and his two goals through 11 games is not what owners banked on when they drafted him in the early rounds this summer though. He's still shooting a ton, but his scoring rate is a third of what it was last year. There are going to be a number of multi-goal games as that corrects.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The writing was on the wall that the Lightning were going to take a step back, but the fact that their depth seems to have completely evaporated is unexpected. There is no secondary scoring this year, and their usually dominant bottom-six is getting completely hemmed into their own zone night in and night out. If this continues then Andrei Vasilevskiy's numbers may be a bit more pedestrian. The top scorers will still thrive, especially on the power play, but the depth and the overall team plus-minus is not going to be at the same level as previous years.

Florida Panthers: Is it surprising that they have taken a step back, or that Aaron Ekblad is unfortunately injured again? Not really. The combined four goals from centres Aleksander Barkov, Anton Lundell, and Sam Bennett is lower than expected though, and it does seem like they are the playmaking abilities of Jonathan Huberdeau. Don't forget about Anthony Duclair too, who should help the offence when he returns mid-season.

Los Angeles Kings: The biggest surprise has to be Gabe Vilardi, who was covered in yesterday's Ramblings and in Ben Gehrels' Journey article. I won't spill too much extra virtual ink on him now.

Philadelphia Flyers: Carter Hart has to be the big name for a team that is exceeding expectations everywhere. Goaltending can be so fickle, but the odds were that someone with Carter Hart's pedigree would put things together at some point. The fact that the team has bought into John Tortorella's supportive system so quickly has made things easier for Hart even though he's still facing 32 shots per game.

Detroit Red Wings: I was not expecting Ville Husso to do as well as he has, then again, I never expect much out of goalies regardless. He had another shutout yesterday, and now sits at 5-1-1 on the year. The Detroit rebuild may be coming to an end sooner than expected.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs are working through some adversity this season, but nothing looks exceptionally out of whack. The team waiving Nicolas Aube-Kubel is surprising though as he is a very serviceable third line player, and is coming off a Stanley Cup win. When the team gets ousted in round one again, fans are going to be clamoring to trade for more players like NAK.

Chicago Blackhawks: The big surprise is their spot in the standings, but the fact they're doing it and they're now down to Dylan Wells (who wasn't under contract a week ago) as their only healthy goalie, is quite a situation. If you're in dire need of volume, give him a look, but otherwise don't risk your ratio stats on this one – or any of the Blackhawks goalies when they return for that matter.

Washington Capitals: Take a guess off the top of your head who is second on the team in scoring behind Alex Ovechkin. It's not Evgeni Kuznetsov, John Carlson, or T.J. Oshie. It's Dylan Strome, who I still can't wrap my head around even being on Washington. It's not that Strome's pace is surprising, it's the fact that the rest of the team is either struggling (pacing for less than 50-points) or hurt. They may turn things around, but they need to get healthier for that to happen, which is still a little ways off.

Montreal Canadiens: The pair of reclamation centres Sean Monahan and Kriby Dach are both doing well. Considering they gave up a first for Dach, and got a first with Monahan to take him on, they basically got both for free. That's a combined 14 points through the team's first dozen games. Neither one was likely drafted high or highly regarded in the offseason, but both look to have found another gear, at least in the short term.

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Minnesota Wild: The slow start made for a bit of a buy-low window on Marc-Andre Fleury, but one player that really hasn't come out of that early season slump is Matt Dumba. He's never lived up to the potential he showed in his injury-shortened 2018-19, but the really disappointing part this season is his lack of shooting volume. He's down to 1.27 shots per game, which is a. career-low outside of his rookie season where he was only playing 12 minutes per game. That's concerning for his fantasy value, and I'm not convinced we're going to see much improvement as the year goes on.

Calgary Flames: Jonathan Huberdeau has struggled with his new team, scoring only five points in his first nine games. His shooting and his ice time are down, which would contribute, but can't account for everything. He'll rebound, but may only finish in the 90-point range rather than 115.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Jason Zucker's renaissance has been nice to see as he is finally healthy. More so than just the scoring getting back up to a 60-point pace, his hit totals are showcasing that he finally feels comfortable with his body. He's racking up 2.7 hits per game, which is huge when you can add offence to it. Both look sustainable at this point, assuming he can stay healthy.

Colorado Avalanche: The offence is ticking along without missing a beat, but the team just can't seem to win their usual amount of games. The issue is that Pavel Francouz has really struggled, and still doesn't have a win yet on the season. The clear indication that he's falling out of favour is that Alexandar Georgiev started both of the back-to-back games in Finland this weekend.

Nashville Predators: It was expected that Filip Forsberg, Matt Duchene, and Roman Josi would take a step back this year, but all three have heated up after slow starts, and have a combined 40 points through 11 games. In spite of that, the rest of the team has gone cold, and the team hasn't been able to give Juuse Saros enough support to keep his numbers up. He may turn it around enough, but the team may have too much of an uphill climb at this point to make the playoffs.

Ottawa Senators: Shane Pinto jumping head-on into the rookie-of-the-year conversation as the current top-line centre for the Senators was not something anyone would have seen coming. He looks like the real deal at this point, but the question for the future is where does he fit in the lineup when Josh Norris returns?

Vancouver Canucks: Nils Hoglander not being given any opportunity to showcase his talent while the team continues to flounder is a head-scratcher at best. He has played only eight games, is seeing only 12 minutes in the games he actually dresses for, and is starting less than half of his shifts on the offensive half of the ice. That is not a recipe for success for a skilled player, and he's going to need a change of scenery to turn things around.

San Jose Sharks: The obvious one is Erik Karlsson, who I talked about a bit in yesterday's Ramblings, but the other big surprise – on the other end of the spectrum – is Kevin Labanc. The 26-year-old continues to drop year-over-year, and is currently only pacing for a measly 14 points. He's another player who needs a change of scenery, because as thing stand he's just not generating anything.

Arizona Coyotes: Over the last two seasons, what former Leaf is averaging a nearly-35-goal-pace for the Coyotes? Yup, it's fan-favourite Nick Ritchie. As they say, someone has to score on a bad team, and that someone seems to be the guy standing right beside the net and cleaning up the rebounds. It's not something I would bet on continuing, but then again, I would have bet heavily against him being this productive to begin with.

Anaheim Ducks: John Gibson typically puts up excellent numbers in October, and then fades as the season goes on. This year though he flubbed the start of the season, and Anthony Stolarz has been the better goalie thus far. We might see him get a few more opportunities as the year goes on, though I still don't expect Gibson to be traded anytime soon.

St. Louis Blues: Didn't expect to have to scroll this far down to get to the Blues did you? Well the Blues have really struggled. Between Jordan Kyrou's contract apparently causing a dressing room rift, the team finally not re-signing David Perron, and Jordan Binnington imploding early-on, there's a lot of issues with the Blues. Binnington's trend is especially concerning though, as his GAA and sv% have dropped in each successive year of his career. He also typically drops off mid-season, around game 30. In one-year leagues, it might not be too early to cut bait, or at least look at backup options.

Columbus Blue Jackets: There's a lot that hasn't gone right for the Blue Jackets early, but the most surprising one has to be the issues Adam Boqvist has had earning a spot in the lineup and staying in. He should be one of their top-six defencemen, but he was getting scratched often before his injury, and has zero points in four games. He has only seen 15 minutes per game, and is one of the most sheltered players on the team early on. He has the upside to turn into a solid number-three defenceman down the line, but there is still some growing to do.

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I was sitting watching hockey with my dad and my brother yesterday when my brother mused that skates should be customized more and could be a fashion statement – there's a big opportunity for creativity. My dad countered with the Golden Seals' customization, and it was wonderful to watch the horror on my brother's face when he was told they were all white. Just a fun memory to look back on.

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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

See you next Wednesday!

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