Top 10 Sell-High Players
Tom Collins
2022-11-07
We’re only a month into the NHL season, but you know that plenty of fantasy general managers are already panicking about their team’s slow start.
Maybe they’re already 40 points out in a points-only league, have a 1-3 record in a head-to-head league, or find themselves in eighth place out of 10 in a roto league.
The Dobber forums are seeing some posts from GMs looking for trade advice, looking to swap players like Jordan Kyrou, Jonathan Huberdeau, Moritz Seider, Dougie Hamilton and other struggling players.
What’s a fantasy GM to do? You take this as an opportunity to better your team. You look at slumping superstars on other squads and hope to acquire them by trading your overperforming players. Look at last year. A month into the year, the top 25 point-getters included names like Oliver Bjorkstrand, Anthony Duclair, Drake Batherson, Jesse Puljujarvi, Andrew Copp, Kevin Shattenkirk and Chandler Stephenson. Anyone who sold high on them was laughing, especially if you acquired struggling players in return, such as Roope Hintz, Kevin Fiala and Elias Pettersson. It may seem funny to think about now, but you know there were some GMs who swapped Puljujarvi and Bjorkstrand for Pettersson.
Below are 10 players you should be looking to trade high on. Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean you need to trade these players, but as their value is high, this is a great opportunity to improve your team.
10. Artturi Lehkonen
Lehkonen’s value has dropped since the start of the season when he had four points (all with the man advantage) in his first two games. Since those two contests, he has three points in nine games. However, there may be some fantasy hockey general managers who aren’t aware of how much he’s been struggling and will just look at the overall total of seven points in 11 games. If you have the time and are in a Yahoo fantasy league, I recommend having a look at Yahoo’s trade market, which allows you to see trades that have occurred in other Yahoo leagues. You can search by player to get an idea of value. A search of Lehkonen’s name on the weekend shows he has been recently dealt straight up for Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson and Ryan Johansen. If you’re looking to move him, you might be able to sell another GM on some of Lehkonen’s benefits (on the top power-play unit and the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen at even strength). You can also point to Lehkonen’s career-high ice time and shots per game.
After years of not yielding much in fantasy hockey, Vilardi is finally producing this year. He started on the third line but has performed so well that he’s been shifted to the top line (with Kevin Fiala dropping to the third line). In 14 games, Vilardi has nine goals, 14 points and 37 shots. He has also been on the top power-play unit all season, but has only two power-play points. Trading Vilardi could be a bit iffy as it depends on how you see the Kings’ lines shaping out the rest of the season. If you believe Fiala will remain on the third line all season and Vilardi will stay with Anze Kopitar, it might be wiser to hold on to Vilardi. However, if you believe it’s only a matter of time before Fiala gets back to the top line, or that the lines will get shuffled once Alex Iafallo and Quinton Byfield are back in the lineup, then it may be smart to sell high.
In the second game of the season, Tyler Bertuzzi went down with an upper-body injury that is expected to keep him out of the lineup for four to six weeks. That injury allowed Kubalik to play on the top line and with the top power-play unit, and he has responded tremendously. Through 12 games, Kubalik has 15 points (eight of those with the man advantage) with 29 shots, 14 hits and a plus-two. It’s now been three weeks since Bertuzzi was knocked out of the lineup, so he should be back soon, conceivably as early as next week. Maybe Kubalik continues on the top line and Bertuzzi is moved to another line, but that isn’t a guarantee. It would be better to remove all the worry and doubt now if you can get a good return for Kubalik.
7. Adin Hill
It appears Robin Lehner‘s injury may not have been the disaster that many thought. Lehner struggled last season but would have been the team’s de facto starter this year if healthy. However, his being out for the year has allowed Logan Thompson and Adin Hill to step up in a big way. While Thompson is getting the majority of the starts, it’s still pretty close (eight games for Thompson versus five for Hill so far). Hill is 5-0-0, with a 2.17 GAA and .925 SV%, and the game against Montreal on Saturday night is the first time Hill has allowed more than two goals in a contest. Perhaps you can find an owner who is already frustrated with his struggling number-one netminder and would be willing to move them for Hill.
6. Justin Faulk
Faulk has been underrated in fantasy hockey, but he is a sneaky good pick in leagues that count peripherals. Each year, Faulk is one of a few defensemen that can reach a triple-triple (finishing a season with at least 100 shots, 100 blocked shots and 100 hits). Only 22 players hit all three marks last season. So far this year, Faulk has been even better than usual. He’s on pace for a career high in shots and blocked shots, and he should still reach 125-plus hits. Yet, it’s his offense that is raising eyebrows. Faulk’s 10 points in nine games lead the Blues. He has three power-play points, which is second on the team. Unless you believe he’s going to hit career highs in points, power-play points, shots and blocked shots, it’s a good time to move him.
If you’re in a points-only keeper league, you hold on to Addison unless someone is willing to give you a massive overpayment. In a one-year league that counts peripherals, you trade him the second you get a decent offer. You may have already missed your sell-high date, as Addison has zero points in his last four games. On the season, Addison has seven points (five with the man advantage) in 11 games. However, he’s a detriment in most other categories. He has zero goals, just 12 shots, three hits and is a minus-six. To be fair, he does have six PIM and 10 blocked shots, but it’s not enough to roster him in one-year leagues.
RNH has 13 points in 12 games, with eight of those coming with the man advantage. That’s a great start, but that is the norm for the Oilers forward. Let’s look at his last five campaigns:
2021-22: First 15 games, 19 points. Remaining 48 games, 31 points.
2020-21: First 20 games, 18 points. Remaining 32 games, 17 points.
2019-20: First 19 games, 13 points. Remaining 46 games, 48 points.
2018-19: First 15 games, 17 points. Remaining 67 games, 52 points.
2017-18: First 21 games, 17 points. Remaining 41 games, 31 points.
Aside from that one outlier of a season in 2019-20, his points-per-game dropped after the first 15 to 20 games, quite often significantly. He’s started hot again this year, so it would be wise to move him before his production drops again.
3. Carter Hart
Without a doubt, Hart’s play has been the biggest shocker of the season. The Flyers were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but instead, they’re in a playoff position thanks to Hart, who hasn’t lost a game in regulation yet this season. On the season, he’s 6-0-2 with a 1.97 GAA and a .946 save percentage. He was yet to have a bad start, and his 280 saves going into Sunday’s games were tied with Connor Hellebuyck for most in the league. However, those stats from Hart are hiding how bad the Flyers have been. According to Evolving-Hockey, the Flyers are ranking in the bottom 10 of many advanced metrics (or bottom two in several of them). Maybe most telling? They are the worst in the league in expected goals against percentage but are sixth in goals against per game, showing just how much of an impact Hart has had this year.
Lindholm hasn’t been fantasy relevant for years, and his first dozen games would be up there for the best of his career. He has 13 points, with four coming on the power play. However, your opportunity to trade high is coming to a close. Lindholm is getting plenty of ice time with Charlie McAvoy out of the lineup, but McAvoy should be back from shoulder surgery soon. He’s already a full participant in practice and should be back at some point in November. When that happens, Lindholm’s ice time and power-play usage will decrease. Don’t think you could get a solid return for him? According to the Yahoo trade market, on the weekend, someone traded Lindholm straight up for Rasmus Dahlin.
I’ve been a big proponent in the past of Karlsson having bounce-back seasons, but this year is a bit extreme. In 14 games, he has 10 goals, 19 points, 3.2 shots per game and six power-play points. He is scoring on 22.2% of his shots, which is insanely high (his previous career high was 8.5% a season ago). He’s also on pace for 111 points. Eight of his goals and 13 of his points have come in the last five games, so he’s going through a crazy string of productive games. Even if he is back to his old self and he can put up an 80-point pace, there’s always an injury risk. He hasn’t reached the 60-game mark in a season since 2017-18 when he was with the Senators.
One Comment
Leave A Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
That’s mean I should keep Kyle Connor up until the end of the year instead of RNH? Even if RNH is way more productive right now?