Eastern Edge: Vanecek Can Be Solid in New Jersey; Husso’s Start; Montreal’s Goaltending Value

Brennan Des

2022-11-08

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll focus on netminders in New Jersey, but I'll also share a few quick thoughts on two other goaltending situations in the conference.

New Jersey's Netminders

Advanced stats suggest that the Devils have been one of the league's best teams so far this season. Their strong offensive numbers shouldn't come as a huge surprise given the team's scoring talent, but their defense has been surprisingly strong. Through 12 games, New Jersey has allowed the fewest high danger opportunities of any team in the league. Their expected goals against also ranks best in the league (stats via NaturalStatTrick). Although the team has made life easy for both of its goaltenders, one has managed to outperform the other.

So far this season, both Vitek Vanecek and Mackenzie Blackwood have appeared in seven games. While Blackwood holds a 2.79 GAA and .880 save percentage, Vanecek boasts a more impressive 2.21 GAA and .908 save percentage. Vanecek's numbers are skewed by a rough first game of the season in which he conceded five goals on 22 shots against Detroit. He's settled in nicely since then, going 5-0, with a 1.64 GAA and .933 save percentage. Obviously, removing one bad start out of such a small sample is sure to improve any goaltender's overall numbers, but I thought it was worth mentioning in this case since Vanecek's worst game is temporally separated from his other games.  

Although Blackwood and Vanecek have shared the net up until this point, Vanecek will step into a starting role for the next little while as Blackwood is expected to miss three to six weeks with an MCL sprain. Still available in 39% of Yahoo Leagues, Vanecek could make a great addition to your fantasy roster in the short term. I'm hesitant to endorse him for the whole season because I think of him as an average goaltender on a good* team, which makes him replaceable. When evaluating a goaltender's fantasy value, we must consider both his individual talent as well as the quality of the team in front of him. In Vanecek's case, he hasn't really flashed spectacular individual ability. Heading into this season, he possessed a rather pedestrian 2.68 GAA and .908 save percentage through 79 games in the NHL. Although those numbers aren't good enough to guarantee a starting role all season, his contract may secure him a few extra games. Among New Jersey's goaltenders, the team is most invested in Vanecek as he's signed for the next three years. I know I've been harping on the fact that he's just an average goaltender, but it's not like the Devils have an above-average option that could challenge Vanecek right now. All things considered, I personally think it's likely Vanecek finishes this season as New Jersey's starter – or 1A at the worst. If you share such a view, your willingness to roster Vanecek all season will probably depend on your belief in the team in front of him.

I mentioned that team quality was another consideration when establishing a goalie's fantasy value. You'll notice I put an asterisk beside 'good' when describing the Devils. That isn't to suggest they aren't actually a good team, but I think it's important to keep in mind that they have a young roster and it's still early in the season. Young players may be more prone to making mistakes as they learn and develop. Through these first 12 games of the season, the Devils have shown us the heights they can reach, but we don't have a track record to suggest they can maintain this altitude all year. It's easier to boost a goalie's value when the team in front of him has proven themselves as consistent contenders – think Linus Ullmark/Jeremy Swayman in Boston, Frederik Andersen in Carolina, and Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa. Although it's riskier to assign such a boost when a team is in the early stages of becoming a contender, you have more to gain because you're getting in on the ground floor. If Vanecek is still available on your league's waiver wire, you're looking at a pretty low cost and a pretty high ROI.

Hu-sso Good

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It's still early, but Ville Husso is starting to emerge as the starting netminder in Detroit. He boasts a 5-1-1 record, alongside a 1.86 GAA and .941 save percentage. In contrast, his counterpart Alex Nedeljkovic is 2-2-1 with a 4.34 GAA and .880 save percentage. If you need help in net and you're in the 21% of Yahoo leagues where Husso is sitting on the waiver wire, you'd be wise to give him a shot on your fantasy team.

Montreal N'est Pas Mal?

Based on advanced stats, the Canadiens haven't been great defensively – surrendering a high volume of high-quality scoring chances. However, given the inexperience of their blueline, I'd say the team is performing better than we would've guessed heading into season. With Joel Edmundson recently getting back in the lineup and Mike Matheson nearing a return, the team's defense could improve soon. Although their young roster is prone to mistakes, the Canadiens are playing competitive hockey under coach Martin St. Louis. Last year, while Dominique Ducharme was behind the bench, you'd be foolish to pick up a Canadiens netminder in your fantasy league – even if it was for just one start against Arizona. However, this year, if the matchup is right (i.e., a team with a below-average offense), Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault have the potential to post a win with somewhat decent peripherals.

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