Ramblings: Updates on Kane, McAvoy, Bertuzzi, and Sergachev; Starts for Wahlstrom and Thompson – November 10

Michael Clifford

2022-11-10

The Boston Bruins had a couple of significant offseason injuries that would seemingly take at least a month of the season to clear. Brad Marchand beat that timeline by weeks, returning to the lineup recently. On the blue line, it appears Charlie McAvoy is getting close to his own return:

Other reports indicated that the all-star rearguard would be back as early as Thursday night. This is just me speculating, but Boston has games tonight, Saturday, and Sunday, followed by a three-day break before playing next Thursday. If McAvoy isn't in the lineup tonight, I wonder if they do like they did with Marchand and have him return on a back-to-back, play just one of the games, then take some time to re-assess. Again, that is me spit-balling and Mike Reilly was sent to the AHL, which seems to clear room for McAvoy immedaitely. Considering Boston is sixth in expected goal share at 5-on-5, fifth in actual goal share, and lead the Eastern Conference with 22 points in 13 games, the rich are getting richer.

This does likely put an end to Hampus Lindholm on the power play (and possibly David Krejci, too). Nearly half his assists (4/9) have come with the man advantage and he's shooting 16%. We should expect a significant cut to his production coming shortly.

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We got an update on Tyler Bertuzzi:

With all the injuries Detroit has suffered in this early portion of the season, plus other issues, this would be a very welcome return. They would still be without Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina, and Jakub Vrana, but they have to start somewhere.

Just an FYI: Bertuzzi was lined up on the second line with Andrew Copp in practice. Pius Suter looks to be staying on the top line with Dylan Larkin for now. How long that lasts is another question but Copp has had a rough start to the season so this could be about just getting him going rather than trying to get Bertuzzi back with Larkin.

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Both Evander Kane and the Edmonton Oilers provided updates on his status following that gruesome gash he suffered on his wrist on Tuesday night:

It certainly could have been worse and thankfully it wasn't.

A timeline of 3-4 months brings Kane back to the lineup likely after the All-Star Game in early February. The team will miss his scoring for half the season and will have to replace him internally. We are about to see heavy doses of Jesse Puljujärvi, Dylan Holloway, or Kailer Yamamoto in the top-6 forward mix. One of them is often going to be on pushed off the top two lines but my guess is we see a lot of rotation among the wingers. I'm not sure if Klim Kostin has much value but we're about to find out.

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Mikhail Sergachev was moved to PP1 in practice:

Victor Hedman has endured some injury stints this season so maybe that is the reason, but Tampa Bay's top power play has been poor by their standards. On the year, they're sitting at 7.5 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4, whereas their three-year average from 2019-22 was 10.5. This is a team that thrives with the man advantage as part of their elite-status profile and if Hedman isn't up to snuff, these changes may be necessary.

Sergachev fantasy owners across the world: rejoice! He is now getting the opportunity to really thrive offensively. We will see if he can be a difference-maker. I hope they give him some run, too, rather than just a game or two then going back to Hedman if it doesn't click immediately.

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Spencer Knight had his best game of the season with a 3-0 shutout of the Carolina Hurricanes. He stopped all 40 shots he faced including 12 shots between Martin Necas and Sebastian Aho. Nick Cousins, Aleksander Barkov (PP), and Sam Bennett (EN) all scored for Florida with Brandon Montour adding a pair of assists. Montour had a shot, a block, two PIMs, and three hits in this game, skating over 27 minutes. Though Aaron Ekblad is set to return soon, Montour just had a great run eating so many minutes for the Panthers.

Bennett had a goal and an assist with four total shots and six hits. He is still shooting just 6% on the season and is pacing for nearly 50 points. It is shaping up like another fine fantasy season for the former Flame.

UPDATE: Another assist for Montour was added after the game finished. Give him three assists on the night, making 14 points in 10 games without Ekblad, four of those on the PP, with over three shots per game. An absolute legendary month-long run for the rearguard.

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One of the more confounding players to me in this early portion of the season has to be Oliver Wahlstrom. He has four goals and three assists in 13 games, pretty good production for a guy averaging 12 minutes a night. That ice time is even a bit misleading as some benchings in recent games has pushed him to 10:25 per contest in the team's last five appearances. There is not a player in the world that can thrive fantasy-wise playing 10-11 minutes a night.

Coaches always have their reasons for giving players minimal minutes. It could inconsistent play, mental lapses at key times, being undisciplined, or a host of other issues. It did surprise me that they moved Wahlstrom off Mat Barzal's line. Even for people that don't put stock into expected goal numbers (they were a 56% duo this year at 5-on-5, by the way), the Islanders outscored the opposition 7-2 with Barzal and Wahlstrom on the ice. The game they were first broken up was on November 1st, and the three games prior were wins over the Rangers, Hurricanes, and Avalanche. In that game where Wahlstrom was bumped down the lineup, they were in Chicago and had the lead all game. He stayed there a couple more games but kept getting his ice time nuked.

I will defer to Isles fans as I've watched two Islanders games this year (I think?) and can't go off just those two games. But I am looking at Wahlstrom being the second-most productive forward the Isles have at 5-on-5 – on a per-minute basis – and the team has outscored the opponent by a 2:1 margin when he's been on the ice. Considering Anthony Beauvillier has been less productive and outscored nearly by a 1:2 margin when he's been on the ice, it is a bit weird to me.

Wahlstrom's long-term outlook, especially with Barzal locked up long-term, is still very strong but we are probably going to wait a while before he's a reliable fantasy option. Anybody with sound reasoning as to why this is happening, I'm all ears.

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Tage Thompson is a player I've written about often in the offseason and early parts of this campaign. It isn't to belabour the point but he's just such a fascinating NHLer. Having a player of his size not only be a centre, but a very good goal-scoring centre at that, is unprecedented.

Anyone that reads my writing knows I sometimes reference data from Corey Sznajder. He is a full-time game tracker who watches hundreds of games from across the league every year. The micro-stats tracked include things like shot assists (passes leading to shots), zone entries/exits, defensive recoveries and denials, and a bevy of other valuable information. Scoring chances and scoring chance assists (passes leading to scoring chances) are also tracked. With a giant, blinking sign saying 'CAVEAT' that there is not a huge sample of games to work with, I wanted to look at early scoring chance contributions – that is, scoring chances and scoring chance assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Using a low TOI cut-off of 75 minutes, here are the leaders so far this season (with the other data blacked out as to not give away much subscriber-only information):

That is Thompson in the mix with some of the top offensive in the stars every season and to start this season.

It is still very early in the season, and we shouldn't rely on this data point to be a completely new outlook on a player. With that said, Thompson has been very involved in the offence through the first month. There are signs of regression, like a 100% Individual Points Percentage, or getting a point on every 5-on-5 goal scored by the Sabres with him on the ice. However, the team is generating more shot attempts and expected goals with him on the ice than last year and that is a 13-game sample. He may truly have found another gear.

Sitting at 1.23 points per game is likely a bit high but if Thompson stays this involved in the offence for the next five months, he could absolutely be a point-per-game player. More ice time would be nice, but we'll take what we get. This is a fun situation to watch develop.

One Comment

  1. Striker 2022-11-10 at 09:15

    Bos has some cap issues to resolve to get McAvoy back on the roster. If Reilly clears waivers again for a 2nd time, that only free’s up 1.125 mil in cap space, so barring a trade, I assume the simple solution is to designate Forobort to LTIR and kick the can down the road till Forbort is ready to return. That would get Bos under the cap using about 1.5 mil in LTIR space with Forbort designated to LTIR.

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