Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. It’s fun to see the great players add new elements to their games, and continue to evolve in their dominance. Sidney Crosby had a similar period a few years into his career, when he started shooting more (peaking at 3.9 per game), and suddenly became a Rocket Richard contender. Entering Saturday action, Connor McDavid, with 15 goals in as many games, was doing the same thing, up to 4.0 shots per game this season and 3.9 last year. The difference this year though is that he was shooting 25%. Crosby in his peak year shot 20%, and McDavid last year shot 14%, which is close to his career average of 15%. At best, McDavid plays 82 games, shoots 3.9 times per game, and scores on 20% of them, which would put him at around 80 goals. At worst, he tails off to his career average shooting percentage, and the volume drops a bit, putting him into 50-goal territory. If he’s healthy all season though, I would be surprised if he didn’t at least hit 60. (nov9)

2. My expecta2. My expectation was that the Golden Knights could be a bubble playoff team in 2022-23, so long as key guys like Jack Eichel and Mark Stone stayed healthy. To this point, they look much more than just a bubble playoff team: their 13 wins (tied with Boston) lead the league. Not only do they look destined for the playoffs, but they look like genuine Cup contenders in a topsy-turvy Western Conference.

The big story is obviously Logan Thompson. Injuries to Robin Lehner and Laurent Brossoit forced the 25-year-old into a starting role with just 20 NHL games of experience. To date, he’s posted a .934 save percentage, fifth among all goalies with at least five starts. Keeping up anywhere close to this level will make Vegas a force in the West.

Eichel’s resurgence is also a big story here. He has 19 points in 16 games and is now skating more per night with Stone on his right wing. With the Misfits line providing secondary scoring, Eichel-Stone are proving a formidable top duo.

Staying healthy has been big for this team. Jonathan Marchessault talked recently about the team returning to its hard-working roots from their first year in existence and it’s hard to argue with the results thus far. (nov8)

3. Zach Werenski is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season after suffering a separated shoulder and torn labrum during Thursday’s game. This is the worst possible news for those rostering Werenski, in particular those rostering him in single-season leagues. Werenski is already a certified Band-Aid Boy, having missed at least 14 games in each of the previous two seasons.

With Werenski out long term and Adam Boqvist also sidelined with a broken foot, Jake Bean deserves an immediate pickup in many league formats (3% Yahoo/27% Fantrax). Although he did not record a point on Thursday, Bean logged a season-high 26 minutes (including PP1 duties) while blocking six shots. That number was inflated by the fact that the Jackets were down to four defensemen because Erik Gudbranson also left with an injury. However, the icetime total is still notable because Bean had never reached 20 minutes in a game this season prior to Thursday.

Before the season, I had mentioned Bean as a potential deep sleeper because of potential second power-play use and closer proximity to Boqvist than perceived. I don’t think Tim on the Five Hole Fantasy Podcast was completely sold on my pick, though. Although I’ve been cold about starting Bean since adding him to one of my lineups just before the season, I won’t have any reservations about starting him next week with the Jackets playing four home games.

4. Here’s a quote from the Fantasy Guide comparing Bean to Boqvist:

When you talk Bean vs. Boqvist with fantasy owners, they prefer Boqvist hands-down, but is that the right call? Bean, who’s two years older, is closer to his prime, produced similar offense last season, saw more ice time, doesn’t get hurt as often and wasn’t sheltered as much… Right now, Boqvist is getting slightly more PP time, so he’s still getting favored, but don’t be so quick to write off Bean.

Since that was written, Boqvist was healthy scratched for four consecutive games earlier this season before his broken foot in late October. His expected return date is early December. Whether Boqvist can slide ahead of Bean in terms of power-play duties when he returns will depend a lot on Bean’s performance over the next few weeks. (nov12)

5. The New Jersey Devils have won eight consecutive games thanks to an offense that is becoming more difficult to ignore. The goaltending situation is a different story. Vitek Vanecek left Thursday’s game with an injury, and he was limited during Friday’s practice. Since Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier are also on the shelf, Akira Schmid was thrust in as the Devils’ starting goalie. Schmid earned his first win in a relief capacity, stopping seven shots between the third period and overtime.

Schmid is a largely unproven option at the NHL level, but he was off to a solid start in the AHL (4 GP, 1.97 GAA, .918 SV%). On paper, he couldn’t be in a better streaming spot on Saturday at home against Arizona, although the Coyotes have shocked the world in winning three in a row. He’s only 2% rostered in Yahoo and 7% in Fantrax, so availability is not an issue. If Vanecek’s injury is only short term, then you shouldn’t be dropping a goalie on stronger NHL footing for Schmid. The Devils’ starter for Saturday hasn’t been confirmed yet, so check Goalie Post for the latest. (nov12)

6. Sonny Milano has had a bit of a journey since last season ended. Not qualified by the Ducks, Milano attended Flames camp on a PTO but couldn’t land a roster spot. About a week after, Milano signed with the Capitals and started the season in the AHL. In his fourth NHL game of the season, Milano made some noise, scoring a pair of goals while adding an assist and a plus-3 and four shots. Milano was held to just 14 minutes on Friday, but he landed some second-unit power-play time. He’s mostly lined up with Dylan Strome and Marcus Johansson, so I’m not quite there on adding him in standard-sized formats. Yet for some reason, Washington seems like a good fit for his talents. (nov12)

7. Jonatan Berggren was called up by Detroit for their home game on Thursday night against the New York Rangers. The second-round pick from 2018 has 71 points in 77 career AHL games and looks to help fill the lineup with all their injuries. This is an interesting recall for the Wings. All of Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina, and Jakub Vrana do not look to have an imminent return to the lineup so if Berggren plays exceptionally, there is very well a spot for him. Other players like Tyler Bertuzzi and Oskar Sundqvist likely returning shortly, maybe Berggren has a short leash in the NHL regardless of how he performs. With that said, it’s worth paying attention here because he could earn a spot with a high level of play. We will see how this goes. (nov11)

8. Also last Thursday, Charlie McAvoy was back in the lineup for the Bruins, his first game of the 2022-23 season after having shoulder surgery in the offseason. With Brad Marchand returning recently as well, this team is really starting to look like an upper-crust Cup contender.

This is big news for fantasy owners here. McAvoy, in a full season, is capable of 60 points, over 20 coming on the power play, with 2+ shots per game and triple-digit hits and blocks. He is one of the best multi-cat performers there is in the league and a bonus goes to everyone still playing plus/minus formats. (nov11)

9. A curious name to see this week was Adam Ruzicka line up on Calgary’s top line in the absence of Jonathan Huberdeau. Last year, Ruzicka put up 20 points in 16 AHL games, landing over three shots per game, and was very productive on a per-minute basis in his 28 NHL contests. He has never been a monster producer at any meaningful level, but sometimes it just takes time for players to develop other skills that they need to succeed in the NHL. If he can hold his own there, it would allow a lot more lineup flexibility for the Flames, being able to move around middle-6 guys like Nazem Kadri, Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman, and Huberdeau. It would lengthen their lineup and make them that much more dangerous. Of course, Ruzicka needs to prove he can hang at the top of the lineup, but he’ll have plenty of opportunities to do it. This is a situation to monitor, at least. (nov11)

10. I wrote a bit about Oliver Wahlstrom‘s season yesterday, so we won’t dive in there again. What will be noted is that he was back on Mathew Barzal‘s line this past week, with Anders Lee rounding out the trio. From my fingers to the coaching staff’s lineup pen, folks, we may have done it. (nov11)

11. Jake Oettinger looks about ready to return for Dallas from his lower-body injury. It isn’t as if Scott Wedgewood has performed poorly with a .903 save percentage on the season, but Oettinger looks like one of the top young goalies in the world. Consider that the only goalies with a higher high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons (3000+ minutes per Natural Stat Trick) are Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin. He doesn’t look amazing by every measure, but he’s starting to look like the goalie Dallas has been looking for going back years now. (nov11)

12. To complement that last paragraph, we should mention Spencer Knight. The Florida goalie had a 40-save shutout last Wednesday night, his top effort of the season. When I was looking at the aforementioned HDSV% numbers, Knight stood out: tops in the league for any goalie with at least 1700 minutes played. That level of ice time isn’t enough to draw strong conclusions from yet, but it is a wonderful sign.

The reason Knight’s save percentages haven’t looked good is the penalty kill – over the last three seasons, Knight is 47^th out of 54 goalies (175+ minutes) in SV% when his team is down a man. It is worse than MacKenzie Blackwood, Cal Petersen, and Kevin Lankinen. That is tanking his overall save percentage numbers and thus his fantasy value.

That is still a small sample. It really works out to two-thirds of a single season. His other numbers suffer from the same sample issue but there are some very good signs as well as some bad ones that may not be completely his fault. He is on the right track, we just have to see how he does on the penalty kill this year. (nov11)

13. We got an update on Tyler Bertuzzi, as the Wings' winger may be back in the fold this coming Tuesday. With all the injuries Detroit has suffered in this early portion of the season, plus other issues, this would be a very welcome return. They would still be without Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina, and Jakub Vrana, but they have to start somewhere.

Just an FYI: Bertuzzi was lined up on the second line with Andrew Copp in practice lately. How long that lasts is another question but Copp has had a rough start to the season so this could be about just getting him going rather than trying to get Bertuzzi back with Dylan Larkin. (nov10)

14. A timeline of 3-4 months brings Evander Kane back to the lineup likely after the All-Star Game in early February. We are about to see heavy doses of Jesse Puljujarvi, Dylan Holloway, or Kailer Yamamoto in the top-6 forward mix. My guess is we see a lot of rotation among the wingers. I’m not sure if Klim Kostin has much value but we’re about to find out. (nov10)

15. Mikhail Sergachev got reps on the Bolts' PP1 during practice last week. Victor Hedman has endured some injury stints this season so maybe that is the reason, but Tampa Bay’s top power play has been poor by their standards. Entering last Thursday's action, they were sitting at 7.5 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4, whereas their three-year average from 2019-22 was 10.5. This is a team that thrives with the man advantage as part of their elite-status profile and if Hedman isn’t up to snuff, these changes may be necessary. I hope they give Sergachev some run, too, rather than just a game or two then going back to Hedman if it doesn’t click immediately. (nov10)

16. Tage Thompson is a player I’ve written about often in the offseason and early parts of this campaign. It isn’t to belabour the point but he’s just such a fascinating NHLer. Having a player of his size not only be a centre, but a very good goal-scoring centre at that, is unprecedented.

Thompson has been very involved in the offence through the first month. There are signs of regression, like a 100% Individual Points Percentage, or getting a point on every 5-on-5 goal scored by the Sabres with him on the ice. However, the team is generating more shot attempts and expected goals with him on the ice than last year. He may truly have found another gear. (nov10)

17. Ryan O’Reilly has really dropped off this season, and we didn’t really see it coming. He’s shooting more than he has in the last four years, but the concerning thing is that his faceoff percentage has dropped drastically. It hasn’t been below 56% in the last eight years, but it was all the way down under 52% at time of writing this past week.

I do tend to find that for centres, their faceoff percentage is a great indicator of whether there is something to actually be concerned about or not. If a player’s faceoff numbers are still fine, but they’re slumping, they bounce back fast. Unfortunately for ROR, that’s not the case now. His ice time is down nearly three minutes per game from just two years ago, and we could see it drop further as the year goes on.

Give the extra ice time to the youngsters like Robert Thomas, and have them be the driving force in the turnaround. The team is too good not to bounce back to some degree, but there doesn’t appear to be a playoff spot in the cards this year. (nov9)

18. A great add for both the short and long-term, Mattias Maccelli is someone that has flown a little under the radar for me, but I pulled the trigger and added him in two leagues this past week. He’s now up to 10 points in 14 games, with seven of them coming with the man-advantage. His plus-minus (and general lack of peripherals) might be a negative in leagues that count the extra stats, but in most cases if you’re scoring then it can be covered off anyways.

Overall, his underlying numbers don’t look very out of line, and if anything, he could be getting some better opportunities than currently provided as he was startsing 37% of his shifts in the offensive zone at time of writing. The 22-year-old is also not yet seeing top-line exposure, but if he keeps it up then it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him get the sheltered offensive minutes alongside top-of-the-lineup players like Clayton Keller. (nov9)

19. Something to consider for those of you with prospect drafts, minors systems, or whose teams are looking more in a youth direction. The simple advice is bet on talent, regardless of other narratives such as injury issues, “laziness”, and being “selfish”. (nov9)

20. Stefan Noesen is a former top prospect who was drafted 21^st overall in 2011. Has he finally figured out the pro game? He’s 29 now, which is usually too late to forge a regular-duty NHL career. Last season, he had 85 points in 70 AHL games, including 48 goals (and 112 PIM). His NHL ice time is slowly trending up (averaging 11:13 per game), and his name is starting to crop up on the Daily Fantasy (DFS) tools when I run them. He’s a cheap option and so far he’s been productive. If you are wondering what is holding Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis back – maybe it's because Noesen has been taking their power-play time. (nov7)

21. I cringed as I watched Dominik Kubalik (7-11-18 in 15 games) score in overtime to give him 15 points in 12 games at time of writing early last week. His 5on5 S% was still high at 12.0, but he had done enough to remain on the Red Wings' top line. That should be good enough to ensure he tops his career high of 46 points and probably push 60. This is his BT season, so in hindsight – what was I thinking. (nov7)

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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