We had the 2022 Hockey Hall of Fame induction ceremony on Monday. It is highlighted by a trio of high-profile Canucks players with Daniel and Henrik Sedin plus Roberto Luongo. There was also Daniel Alfresson, Riikka Sallinen, and Herb Carnegie.

There has been some debate as to the merits of some of these players i.e. are they truly HOF players or are they just pretty good players that may not have gotten in if were smaller. I just wanted to go over a few stats from the Sedins:

• Henrik is third in assists this century with 830, trailing only Sidney Crosby (902) and Joe Thornton (1043). He probably gets passed by Patrick Kane in the next couple seasons, as well as Nicklas Backstrom if he can get/stay healthy. Henrik stands a good chance of staying in the top-5 for a while, though, depending on the next few years from Anze Kopitar and Evgeni Malkin.
• Daniel is 1 of 7 players this century with at least 375 goals and 625 assists. The others are Thornton, Crosby, Kane, Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, and Martin St. Louis. They are all current or future HOFers.
• In the five seasons from 2007 through 2012, Daniel (3) and Henrik (5) were both top-5 in the league in points per minute. The top-8 reads as follows: Crosby, Malkin, D. Sedin, Ovechkin, H. Sedin, Pavel Datsyuk, Steven Stamkos, and Teemu Selanne. Again, all current or future Hall of Famers.
• In that same five-season stretch, Daniel was 10^th in the league in expected goal differential (per Evolving Hockey), just a shade behind Crosby.

Arguments about who should or shouldn't be included are part of hockey fandom and can make for fun debate. My argument is that the twins belong whether looking at their entire body of work or their peak performance.

For those arguing about Luongo, he led the NHL in save percentage from 2000-2018 (min. 500 games played). What else does he need to do?

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It was announced that Jake Muzzin has a spinal injury:

Maple #Leafs announce that Jake Muzzin is out indefinitely with a cervical spine injury. He will be re-evaluated next in February.

With Muzzin on LTIR, Toronto will have an opportunity to add to their roster, if they're expecting him to be out for the season.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) November 14, 2022

This sounds bad for a guy that has fought injuries for a few years now. Let's just hope this is nothing that could alter his long-term quality of life. That is much more important.

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Teddy Blueger was back practicing with the Penguins and slotted on the second line in place of Evgeni Malkin:

#Pens lines:
Guentzel–Crosby–Rust
Zucker–Blueger–Rakell
McGinn–Carter–Heinen
Kapanen–Poehling–Archibald

D rotated.

— Wes Crosby (@OtherNHLCrosby) November 14, 2022

The coach said it was a personal reason for Malkin not being at practice so we should assume he’s good to go for tonight.

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Chicago welcomed back Tyler Johnson to practice:

Blackhawks are back in Chicago for morning skate before hosting the Hurricanes tonight.

Tyler Johnson (ankle) is on the ice in a full-contact jersey. Getting him back soon would be huge. pic.twitter.com/CgrOYTdsEr

— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) November 14, 2022

Remember that before his injury, he was getting second line/top PP minutes. For those in deeper formats, it may be worth checking to see if he was dropped over the last couple weeks. Just watch for line combinations as he did not play Monday night so he's not returning just yet.

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Another injury for Columbus and another injury for Patrik Laine:

#CBJ say Patrik Laine is expected to miss 3 to 4 weeks with a sprained ankle.

— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) November 14, 2022

It will be interesting to see how Emil Bemstrom, who jumped to the top PP unit in practice, fares here. The team has an awful power play and it's hard to see it getting better with all the injuries they have now, but at least he's getting the opportunity. Perhaps a recall for Kirill Marchenko (12 points in 10 AHL games this year) is coming?

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Craig Morgan, a reporter covering the Arizona Coyotes, says that Nick Schmaltz and Jakob Chychrun should both be back in a week. That is very good news for the Coyotes and Chychrun's fantasy owners. He is another player to check for on the wire to see if he's been dropped at some point.

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Jonathan Huberdeau returned to the lineup Monday night, skating on the third line with Mikael Backlund. The start that Adam Ruzicka has had on the top line means they can find somewhere else for the former Panther to fit in because it sure wasn’t working on the top line for the first few weeks of the season.

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The New York Islanders kept their recent hot streak going with a 4-2 win in Ottawa over the Senators. Since beginning the season 2-4, the Islanders have gone 9-2 and are now on pace for 106 points. A pretty good first month for them.

Oliver Wahlstrom scored for New York in his usual 10 minutes of ice time but it was Noah Dobson who shone fantasy-wise. He had a goal and an assist with a plus-1 rating, four total shots, a block, and a hit. His stellar start to the 2022-23 campaign continues.

Tim Stützle assisted on each Sens goal in the loss and is now on a point-per-game pace for the season.

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One area that most fantasy analysts in any sport will cover is unsustainable starts to a season. Which players have produced extremely well but may be running a bit hot with a decline on the horizon? The issue isn't necessarily the unsustainable start, but at which level a player settles. If a forward is performing much better than in previous seasons, but have gotten improved ice time levels, or a better offensive role, or top-end line mates, then perhaps the decline won't be as severe as it otherwise could be. Just because a decline is likely coming doesn't mean their value is going to tank. Context is very important for each situation.

With all that said, let's talk about some players off to scorching starts in the first month of the season, where they could go from here, and whether it's recommended to move on. We are going to be using data from Natural Stat Trick and our own Frozen Tools.

Nico Hischier

New Jersey started the season 0-2 with losses to the Flyers and Red Wings but have gone 12-1 since. A big part of that is the continued improvement from Nico Hischier, who skates 19:30 a night playing all three phases. He has 17 points in 14 games, posting 53 points in 46 games going back to February 1^st of last season. It took him some time, but he's finally reached the heights his team (and fantasy owners) were hoping for since his first overall selection.

A big problem for his production is his number of secondary assists at 5-on-5. There is data showing that second helpers are generally a lot of noise, meaning very high/very low rates regress heavily. Hischier already has six such assists this year, two-thirds his total (9) in 70 games last year, leading all NHL forwards on a per-minute basis. The team scoring way more often with him on the ice is helping a lot, but no forward can sustain his rate of 2.03 per 60 minutes – the league leader in 2021-22 was Chandler Stephenson at exactly 1.0 and every other regular forward was under that mark. In other words, Hischier could produce half his current secondary assist rate and still lead the NHL. Cut a few points off from his total and he's still a point-per-game player, which is very good, but not a 100-point pace.

Hischier still plays on an excellent offensive team so there shouldn't be concern about production falling off a cliff. Just don't be surprised if he's closer to a point-per-game player than a 100-point player the rest of the way.

Brady Tkachuk

Another forward with way too many second assists is Brady Tkachuk. His per-60 rate this year sits at 1.26, more than four times higher his three-year average of 0.26. His playmaking has improved as he's matured in the NHL but there's a difference between improvement and unsustainability. This secondary assist rate falls into the latter category. He could easily have seen 2-3 fewer points than he currently has and still be well above what he's done in his young career.

The other part of this is the power play. The team is scoring just 6.4 goals/60 on the man advantage with Tkachuk, but he's registered a point on every PP goal scored while he's been on the ice. I can believe a top-end player like Tkachuk getting more involved as he improves his skills but 100% is excessive. That regression probably should cost him a point or two as well.

Between the secondary assists at 5-on-5 and the PP production, like Hischier, Tkachuk should be closer to a point-per-game player than a 110-point winger. The thing is this: if we were told at the start of the season that Tkachuk would sit around a point per game, in conjunction with his great peripherals, he's consistently drafted in the first round. For that reason, this isn't a player we trade away looking for improvement. This is a player where we just accept the incoming regression but enjoy his top-tier multi-cat production.

Nick Suzuki

As the resident Habs fan, this has been a great season to watch. Cole Caufield could crack 40 goals, Kirby Dach looks like the player Habs fans hoped he would be, Jordan Harris looks like he will become a regular NHL defenseman, while their non-first-overall draft picks from 2022 have all had good-to-great starts to their respective seasons in other leagues.

It should go without saying that there are signs for regression with Nick Suzuki, though. He is currently shooting 27% overall and that's a big red flag. What's more is that his conversion rate at 5-on-5 is over 31% (!!!), second highest among all regular forwards, behind Morgan Geekie (36.4%) in Seattle. His three-year average to start his career was 8.5%. To put it differently, shooting 11% would be a career-high and still be roughly one-third his currently level. Cut off four EV goals from his total and he's still on pace for a point per game but would clearly see a big hit to his fantasy value.

With the duo of Caufield/Suzuki on the ice at 5-on-5, the team is shooting over 20%. Regression will hit hard here, and I have concerns about Suzuki's production the rest of the way. Not that he'll fall off the map, but the Montreal power play isn't producing much so a big drop at 5-on-5 will really hurt here. It may not be a bad idea to see if he can be traded for a potential top-50 centre that will be more stable the rest of the way. I would rather have Hischier for the balance of the season, for example.

Gabriel Vilardi

Players like Vilardi are tough to peg because this looks to be his breakout season, so we don't really have a baseline of what to expect. With that said, he will not keep shooting over 22% at 5-on-5. If he can shoot half that the rest of the way, it would still be a very good season for him. He has also registered a point on every 5-on-5 goal scored with him on the ice, another indicator of a drop-off coming.

If Vilardi were to shoot 15% at 5-on-5 the rest of the season – still a very high mark – he could score 17-18 more goals at that strength in the next 65 games. Add that with some PP1 time and he could still pot another 20 goals over the balance of the season and for a guy that was probably a waiver-wire pickup, that is perfectly acceptable.

There are also his assist totals that could improve. He has scored 10 of the 18 goals he's been on the ice for (at all strengths) with his line mates shooting a meagre 6.8%. If they start scoring more, a drop in goals could be balanced by a rise in assists. Goals are more important but raw point totals matter and there may be some regression in different production stats that balance each other out.

Because of his cheap acquisition cost, it's worth just sitting on him for now. The return in the trade always matters but if I can't get a near-lock top-75 skater for him (Troy Terry, Jack Hughes, Alex DeBrincat, for example), he's probably worth just holding onto.

Logan Couture

It is a rough start to the season for Logan Couture. He is on pace for fewer than 55 points, which would be the lowest mark of his career in any season he's played at least 75 games. That is despite the fact he's shooting 17.6% – a career-high – and he's registered a point on every Sharks goal scored at 5-on-5 with him on the ice. That 100% Individual Points Percentage (IPP) is going to fall, and it could fall a lot, considering he hasn't reached 77% in any single season for nine years. The team is shooting just 6.3% with him on the ice at 5-on-5, so a rebound in goals by his line mates could help balance things out here, but what's the upside? If his IPP declines but his team starts scoring a half-goal more per 60 minutes, does he end up much more than a 55-point centre?

Given his age and team quality, it's hard to see there being a bright fantasy future for Couture. He is only landing two shots per game and in leagues with plus/minus, he's a big drag. If anything of value can be recouped in a trade, it might be worth exploring. A 60-point centre with 125 hits is fine, but if that's combined with two shots per game and a brutal plus/minus, it might be worth moving on in non-deep leagues.

Adam Fox

The clear concern here is shooting percentage. He is shooting 14.3%, which is way too high for a defenseman, especially one that shot 6.2% in his first 203 regular season games. He is a brilliant offensive blue liner so I don't have a problem believing he can shoot 7-8%, but double digits is just too much and we know that's going to decline. He won't be a 20-goal defenseman.

To make matters a bit more complicated is his 81.3% IPP at 5-on-5. He has seen that number rise in every season but jumping from a little over 50% to a little over 80% is too much. Last year, no defenseman was over 60% and just two (Roman Josi and Shayne Gostisbehere) were over 55%. He is probably running hot by 3-4 total points right now which indicates to me that he'll be closer to a 70- or 80-point defenseman than a 90-plus guy. An improvement by the power play could help mitigate some of that loss, though, so there is a balance here.

Fox is a guy we hold onto. There are maybe two defensemen I'd trade him away for in Rasmus Dahlin and Cale Makar. Fantasy owners are not going to trade those players, I think, so Fox is a guy we just leave on our rosters. Beware of a small decline coming, though.

Miro Heiskanen

I had concerns about the Dallas power play with Miro Heiskanen there instead of John Klingberg. Those have been unfounded so far as the top PP unit for the Stars is scoring a whopping 27 goals per 60 minutes. With Klingberg there last year, that number was 9.9 goals per 60 minutes, so there's been a significant improvement. The problem is they are shooting 25% with the man advantage and Heiskanen on the ice. For reference, no regular PP defenseman was over 24% last year and no non-Colorado blue liner was over 20%.

The complicating issue is this: the Dallas PP is truly elite. They are generating over 90 shots on goal per 60 minutes with Heiskanen, just an unreal number. For reference, Morgan Rielly led in this regard in 2021-22 at 71 shots/60. If they can keep up the shot volume, it can help mitigate a drop in shooting percentage and still leave them with an elite power play.

This is likely another player we just hold onto. He may not reach 30 PPPs this year (82-game pace) but he should cruise past 20 and I'm not sure how fantasy owners win a trade unless they can get back a top-10 fantasy blue liner. There may be some PP regression coming but his team is still very good, and the PP could be tops in the league.