Heading into Wednesday night's game against Buffalo, Ottawa had been on a 1-6-1 skid, allowing 35 goals in those eight games. Something had to give with the lineup and the first solution seems to be Drake Batherson being dropped to the third line:

Morning skate lines with the Sabres visiting town tonight at 7.

Tkachuk-Stützle-Giroux
DeBrincat-Brassard-Joseph
Motte-Pinto-Batherson
Kelly-Kastelic-Watson
XXXX-Gambrell-XXXX

Sanderson-Hamonic
Brannstrom-JBD
Holden-Larsson
Zub- Zaitsev

Forsberg (starters end)
Talbot.

— TSN 1200 (@TSN1200) November 16, 2022

We should note that in this downturn, no regular Ottawa forward outside the top line had an expected goal share at 5-on-5 over 46% and the middle-6 was getting wildly outscored. This seems an attempt to balance things a bit with Josh Norris still out. We will see how long/if this lasts but Batherson going from Stützle-Tkachuk earlier in the season to *squints* Motte-Pinto isn't great for his short-term fantasy value.

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Mike Matheson might be returning soon for Montreal:

Mike Matheson skating with a regular jersey on this morning. Should be back in the next few days. @CanadiensMTL

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) November 16, 2022

Montreal has been using a five-forward power play the entire month of November and have actually been mid-pack in the league in goals per minute, which feels like a miracle. They might not want to shake things up immediately, but Matheson is a candidate to eventually get some top PP minutes.

On the flipside, Jonathan Drouin is heading to the injured reserve:

Jonathan Drouin officially on the IR (4 to 6 weeks) @CanadiensMTL

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) November 16, 2022

It has been an awful few years for Drouin health-wise as he's played just 117 of a possible 236 regular season games going back to the start of the 2019-20 campaign. He has discussed his anxiety issues as well and now we just have to hope he can put it all back together eventually. He is still just 27 years old so there are a few years to reclaim his playmaking prowess.

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News from the Minnesota Wild:

Big news from #mnwild practice, but Marc-Andre Fleury has an upper body injury and is being evaluated today. Evason doesn't know how long he'll be out. Wild will recall a goalie from Iowa.

— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) November 16, 2022

After a very bad first few games, Marc-André Fleury had managed a .932 save percentage across his last nine starts for Minnesota. He is one of the reasons for the team keeping pace for a playoff position this early, along with a Western Conference that has looked very mediocre to start the year. We'll pass along an update when we get it.  

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Eric Comrie left Buffalo's 4-1 loss to Ottawa during the second period with an apparent lower-body injury and did not return. We will have to wait longer for further updates but for now it looks to be Craig Anderson's net. Buffalo's next game is Saturday night in Toronto, so maybe not the best streaming option unless it's necessary.

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Anchoring bias is a real thing that affects how we perceive a lot around us. This type of bias is simply giving heavy weighting to the earliest information we hear, read, or see and then having that perception colour how we interpret information that follows. In the fantasy hockey realm, this means placing too much importance on early-season results and not properly adjusting expectations as we get more/newer data.

To that end, I want to go through some changes we've seen in this early part of the year. Teams have played anywhere from 14-18 games – as of Wednesday afternoon – and that gives us a decent chunk of games to look towards in a before/after format. Let's look at some trends that have changed through the first five-ish weeks of the season and how it might inform how we view certain players moving forward. We are going to use a cut-off of October 28^th and use both our Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick for the data.  

Today, we'll look at shot attempt and ice-time rate improvements.

Evan Rodrigues

All the injuries that Colorado has suffered has led to a lot more ice time of late for offseason signee Evan Rodrigues. In seven games since Valeri Nichushkin left the lineup, Rodrigues is averaging over 21 minutes a night, skating fewer than 19 in just one of those contests. He has five points in that stretch, averaging over three shots on goal per game. He is still skating in the top-6 forward mix, though the third line is getting some more minutes of late, and on the top PP unit. Until Nichushkin returns, he likely continues heavier-than-usual usage.

I still don't know what to make of E-Rod, really. He shows flashes of being a high-end offensive player mixed with good two-way play and shows flashes of being a fourth liner. That kind of inconsistency can be tough for a fantasy owner to rely on, but his ice-time levels and PP role alone make him worth rostering for now.

Erik Gustafsson

John Carlson being injured for a few games moved Erik Gustafsson to the top power-play unit for Washington and got him a lot more ice time as a result. The six games without Carlson saw the former Blackhawk blue liner skate nearly 21 minutes a night, posting four assists in six games, all of them with the man advantage. In the three games since Carlson's return, Gustafsson's ice time has declined but he's still flirting with 20 minutes a night and has skated 21-plus in back-to-back matchups.

Even since Carlson reappearance, Gustafsson has still been earning some top PP time. He has supplanted the 70-point defenseman on one occasion and took Marcus Johansson's spot once on Tuesday night. They really need the power play to work, and it might mean a higher dose of Gustafsson in a PP role. He may be droppable in shallower leagues but it's probably worth hanging on in deeper formats. Washington seems to be waiting for something to click and if Gustafsson is around when it does, he could be a big beneficiary.

Adam Henrique

The long-time Duck has been moved to the top line with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry over the team's last few games, to go with the top PP unit. This has led to Adam Henrique skating 19:44 a night over his last six games, managing five goals and six points in that stretch. He has averaged nearly three shots per game and is on a four-game point streak. Anaheim is a bad team, but that top line is getting lots of opportunity to produce offensively.

Something that isn't discussed enough with this team is the chemistry between Henrique and Zegras. With those two on the ice at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons – without Troy Terry – the Ducks are a very nearly a break-even expected goal share team, scoring 3.4 goals per 60 minutes. Considering just how bad the team is overwise – 42.4% expected goal share and 1.9 goals per 60 minutes – they are an oasis in a desert. As long as Henrique maintains his current role, he probably should be rostered in most fantasy formats.

Kirby Dach

The last ice-time climber we'll talk about is Kirby Dach. Of the Dobber editors, I am the Montreal fan, and I feel legally and morally obligated to mention him and his performance.

As has been covered by some of our writers already, Dach's move to the top line with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki has been extremely beneficial all around. He has 11 points in eight games since being given a more significant position, averaging 17:38 a night. Not huge minutes but third among the team's forwards as they tend to spread ice time around. Beyond that, defensive metrics (both expected and actual goals against) have improved for the Suzuki/Caufield duo as Dach helped round out the trio's game at both ends.

There are obvious signs of regression here like their line shooting nearly 24% at 5-on-5 – half that rate would be elite efficiency – and Dach shooting over 20% since his promotion. But regression doesn't mean "will be bad" and as long as he keeps this role, he may have fantasy value in some fantasy formats.

Jack Quinn

The recent injury to Jack Quinn was a tough break because it seemed as if he was turning a corner in the early portion of this season. He was barely shooting through his first handful of games, managing 6.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That rate would be fine for a mid-tier defenseman, not a (hopeful) high-end rookie forward. His next seven games were much more promising as that shot rate more than doubled to 15.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes. He was earning PP1 minutes from time to time as well. Hopefully he can return and pick up where he left off.

His problem was that he still wasn't earning a lot of ice time overall. Even his recent uptick saw him sitting at 13:09 per game and skating more than 14 minutes once in seven contests. It is really hard for almost any player to have fantasy relevance with that level of TOI. All the same, dynasty owners want to see him improve and he looked to be trending in that direction. We'll see how he performs when he's back in the lineup.

Logan Couture

A little note on the San Jose Sharks following their win against Vegas on Tuesday night:

since heading out on a road trip on Oct. 18, the San Jose Sharks are 6-5-3 with a 51% xG share, higher than Nashville, the Islanders, Edmonton, Colorado, and Washington. after returning from Europe and getting time to re-acclimate, they've been perfectly… fine?

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) November 16, 2022

That stretch has seen wins against the Rangers, Leafs, Stars, Wild, and now the Golden Knights. Pretty not bad, huh?

Logan Couture has been a big part of this. His start to the season was brutal from a shooting perspective, managing 6.7 attempts per 60 minutes, totalling just 14 shots in 10 games. The team was scoring 1.4 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, generating 2.2 expected goals. Since then, he has 21 shots in eight games, taking 13.4 shot attempts per 60 minutes, with the team's scoring up to 2.4 goals per 60 at 5-on-5, generating 3.2 expected goals. Couture and Matt Nieto have been solid for the team on the second line, adding Alexander Barabanov of late.

It is worth remembering that the Sharks started the season in Europe and it's a wonder how hard it was to get back to a normal schedule with all that significant travel. Their next 13 games include Detroit, Ottawa, Vancouver twice, Montreal, Anaheim, Ottawa twice, Buffalo, and Arizona. The Sharks could make some noise over the next four weeks.

Yegor Chinakhov

There are lots of injuries chewing up the news cycles for Columbus but the shooting improvement from Yegor Chinakhov is flying a little under the radar. He has increased his shot rate in our splits by roughly 60%, up to 14.6 per 60 minutes. It isn't a huge number by any stretch but it's considerably better than what he was doing. In Columbus's overtime win on Tuesday night, he skated a season-high 18:16, nearly three minutes more his previous season-high. Just beware that the improved shot rate hasn't led to significantly more shots each night because other than their latest game, Chinakhov was still skating ~12 minutes each contest.

This season might be shot but if Columbus wants to take steps forward in the next year or two, players like Chinakhov will have to show improvements. This is a start, but they need to see a lot more from him over the next 60-some games.

Ryan Strome

Not that Ryan Strome has ever been a big shot-volume guy, with his career-high 2.4 shots per game coming in his rookie season with the Islanders, but his start this year was awful in the fantasy realm: 10 shots in his first eight games, managing 5.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That would be bad for a defenseman, maybe even a goalie.

Since that brutal start, he has improved to 10.5 attempts per 60 minutes, which is still bad but a big improvement, nonetheless. He has seven points in his last eight games, landing 18 shots on goal. The issue for fantasy is that he's not skating with either Zegras or Terry at 5-on-5 or on the power play, which means he's relying on the depth options to help along his production. Things are fine offensively but their defensive play is getting them caved in on a regular basis. I am not sure how much longer this lasts.

Blake Wheeler

The last player we'll discuss for shot improvements is Blake Wheeler. He has gone from 9.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes to 17.5 and his current overall shot attempt levels are now back to his norm from the last few seasons. Just beware that even with 12 shots in his last six games, half of those shots came in one contest against Seattle.

All the same, we must note the improvement of his line. Their first eight games together went very poorly, controlling 43.8 of the expected goals at 5-on-5, just 38.7 of the actual goals, and scoring 2.2 per 60 minutes. Those numbers have risen of late as they're controlling 60.7% of the expected goals, 48.3% of the actual goals, and scoring 2.6 per 60 minutes. That is a stretch that has seen wins over Seattle and Dallas with an overtime loss to Vegas. They have turned their play around and I wonder if it's not just getting chemistry back. We are still looking at small samples, but the improvement is notable and something to monitor.

Until Wheeler gets his PP1 role back – and with Nikolaj Ehlers starting to skate shortly, he may not – it's hard for him to have much fantasy value. He can help his line mates' fantasy value, though, and that's valuable in itself.