Ramblings: Demko, Bobrovsky, Johnny Hockey, Sid the Kid, P. Kane and more … (Nov. 21)
Dobber
2022-11-21
The only No.1 goalie to start on Sunday – out of four – lost the game. And that's been much of the story this season when it comes to goaltending. It often seems that whenever you pick who to activate for the week or for the day, the opposite of expectations will happen.
Another case in point is Thatcher Demko. What we thought was pretty good value in a goaltender has been anything but. In fact, he has been money in the bank – if you bet against him. I did just that on Friday playing DFS on OwnersBox. There was just the one game that day and I could have hedged and chosen him over Jonathan Quick in one of the contests I played. But nope – Demko was a slam-dunk to have a horrible game. Heading in, he had given up four or more goals in eight of 11 games, with those other three games giving up three. So rather than playing it safe and hedging, I went all in with Quick.
Naturally, that was the night that Demko ended his slump.
And that's the unpredictability of this year's goalies. You can't even count on Andrei Vasilevskiy anymore. Vas has a career-low 46.2 QS% (other than prior to his becoming a starter). The only goalies I would have faith in on any given day this season are Igor Shesterkin, Linus Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin. Maybe Logan Thompson. But I do not trust Martin Jones and Vitek Vanecek – those two seem to be a house of cards in terms of performance to date.
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For what it's worth, I think Demko is going to turn it around and have a strong second half. It may take a coaching change, but not necessarily so.
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As for Sergei Bobrovsky, this is the crap you're probably going to have to put up with all season long. Good games and bad games in equal doses, without giving a heads-up as to which one you'll get on a given day. But this is going to slowly shift towards Spencer Knight as long as both goaltenders stay healthy. This is probably not the first time you read this here. BUT. This is the first time I'm the one saying it. Yes, you follow the contract. You follow the money. So for this year and next year, Bobrovsky is pretty much guaranteed to play 45 games. That leaves Knight with only 40 or so, depending on how often Bob gets pulled. But down the stretch this season, I suspect we will finally see the team lean on Knight. Knight won't get the full-time starter status until 2024-25. That's when we will finally see him play over 55 games (barring a Bobrovsky injury). That year he will be – that's right – 23. What I keep saying here is that 23 is the absolute earliest age that a prospect goalie truly becomes season-long fantasy worthy. And even then, it has only been Vasilevskiy and Carey Price over the last 20 years, so Knight would be in great company indeed.
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Sunday was obviously filed under 'bad' for Bobrovsky. The Panthers dominated Sunday's game but Bobrovsky was thoroughly outplayed by his counterpart Daniil Tarasov. Bob coughed up five goals on 23 shots while Tarasov handled 46 of 49 shots. By the way – Tarasov is 23 years old.
Columbus has won four of their last six games and with Tarasov back and healthy, combined with Joonas Korpisalo getting shelled on Saturday, and I wonder if Tarasov is one to watch. Elvis Merzlikins, who is sidelined until early December, has had a brutal start to his season so far.
Johnny Hockey is starting to adapt to his new team. New team, new system, new linemates. He never had enough time to get going with Patrik Laine, and since Laine's injury it's been a matter of finding the right mix of linemates. Apparently, that mix has Kent Johnson on the other wing and Boone Jenner at center. Gaudreau has points in four straight and nine in his last six overall. Jenner has been similarly hot, also with nine points in that span. It doesn't look like my preseason prediction of Jack Roslovic taking that spot by Christmas will come to pass.
Roslo was out for both games on the weekend with an illness.
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As noted, the Panthers peppered Tarasov with shots, but they were mainly from the point. The top four shooters for Florida: Brandon Montour (7 SOG), Aaron Ekblad (7 SOG), Gustav Forsling (5 SOG), and Radko Gudas (4 SOG). Every forward had three shots or fewer.
Eric Staal, now 38, has now played 12 games this season, averaging about 11 minutes per. He has been used as a defensive specialist, seeing more defensive-zone starts and against tougher lines. But his relative Corsi numbers are the worst on the team, so he's losing possession. After taking a full season off, and at his age, I would have expected him to get sheltered minutes and power-play time. Instead – no PP time at all.
Gustav Forsling has points in five straight games and is plus-5 in that span, including a plus-2 in Sunday's losing effort. Forsling's shot volume this year is way, way, way up, averaging 3.2 per game when normally he hovers around 2.0.
Anton Lundell is pointless in five.
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It was Evgeni Malkin's 1000th career game, but it was Sidney Crosby's night. Malkin did score a goal on his big night, but The Kid also scored and added three helpers.
For Crosby, the four-point night gives him 27 on the campaign and he sits tied for sixth in the league. Malkin's goal gives him points in seven straight games. In fact, Malkin has points in 16 of his 19 games overall.
He did get an assist on Sunday, but even if he didn't I wanted to mention Pierre-Olivier Joseph. So far, with somewhat limited minutes, Joseph has had himself a strong campaign by the numbers. His expected goals ratio is quite strong (53.7 xG% 5v5), facing tougher competition on average than Kris Letang, while seeing a similar offensive-zone-start ratio. And in that situation his possession numbers are strong – strongest among all Pittsburgh defensemen, in fact. He has five points in 15 games and his current pace is for 27. But I'm starting to wonder if he hits 35. That would be a great rookie season. He needs to earn PP time first, and it can't be at the cost of a Kris Letang injury. A Letang injury would mean Ty Smith gets recalled (FYI Smith has eight points in 14 games with Wilkes-Barre, fourth in scoring). But an injury to two of Pittsburgh's top six would be enough to get Joseph some second-unit PP time.
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Interesting note – of the active players who have played 1000 career games, here are the most points at the time of their 1000th game:
Crosby: 1278
Malkin: 1166
Alex Ovechkin: 1118
Patrick Kane: 1060
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The Pittsburgh – Chicago tilt was also notable for honoring Marian Hossa, who had his number retired. I'm a huge Hossa fan. Was big on him even at the draft when Ottawa took him. But Ottawa should have retired his number before Chicago did. In fact, Chicago should have retired Chris Chelios and Jeremy Roenick first! My .02 on the matter.
Patrick Kane scored his first goal in 11 games on Sunday. He was really itching for that one as he fired a season-high 6 SOG. His shot volume has been way down this year, averaging just 2.9 per game. His career average is 3.3, and he hasn't seen 2.9 since 2012-13. But that was the year he was scoring at will (career high 16.7% S%) – this season he hasn't been quite so accurate, sitting at just a 5.7% clip. He's on a 64-point pace, but I suspect he finishes in the high-70s.
Andreas Athanasiou hasn't been injured yet, he's comfortably in his prime at 28 years old, and he's been playing almost exclusively with Patrick Kane while averaging the second highest ice time in his career. Tell me those things in September and I would assume he has 15 or 20 points in his first 18 games. But no, he has just eight.
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See you next Monday!