Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 10 Team, keep 5, H2H league starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D and 2G and categories of G, A, PPPts, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, a team has the following players on their roster:

C: Nathan Mackinnon, Aleksander Barkov, Claude Giroux (RW)
LW: JT Miller(C), Evander Kane, Jonathan Marchesseault (RW)
RW: Vladimir Tarasenko, Mats Zuccarello
D: Cale Makar, Brent Burns, Darnell Nurse, Drew Doughty, Neal Pionk
G: Igor Shesterkin, Linus Ullmark, Carter Hart

Should the GM be willing to deal their Barkov and Zuccarello for Matthew Tkachuk and Roope Hintz? Or should they stand pat?

First off, this is a very shallow league, plus nearly a third of all players are kept. Frankly, I'm not certain that Marchessault should be owned at all despite having multi-positional eligibility. I'd venture there are better waiver wire options, especially since SOG, where Marchessault is very strong, don't even count.

As for the trade, I think it makes sense. We're witnessing what Hintz is capable of, and this despite not yet seeing what I thought would be a surefire ice time bump after Rick Bowness left. Dallas seems to be taking a page from the St. Louis playbook and trying to run three scoring lines, making it so more ice time has not been bestowed upon Hintz like I thought it would. Despite that, he is dominating and I feel he has more upside than Barkov, who I covered in a Goldipucks Column in September, where I felt his elevated SH%, suboptimal record of PP production, and IPPs collectively signified he was too hot last season and is, at best, a 90-95 point player. That's a very nice floor of course; however, I could see Hintz being a 100+ point player as soon as this season, plus he's got considerably less mileage on his legs despite being only a little over a year younger than Barkov.

Then there's Zucc vs. Tkachuk. Being tethered to Kirill Kaprizov has served Zuccarello well to say the least. Given the style he plays, he could produce for a few more seasons, especially now that his SOGs are spiking. Meanwhile, Tkachuk is showing it was as much him that led to the success of arguably hockey's best line last season, as Tkachuk is faring even better in Florida and looks poised to be one of the best multicat forwards to own in fantasy for the foreseeable future. So no offense to Zuccarello and his superb deployment, but Tkachuk has proven he's very much the real deal and worth a lot more, especially in this format and at his age.

In short, I think this is a rare trade where both players received appear to be upgrades over the players that are owned. I wouldn't hesitate at all in pulling the trigger.

Topic #2 – In a cap league (AAV) where forward positions don't matter, who is the better own: Jack Hughes or Jason Robertson?

First off, the salary cap factor is inconsequential, as their AAV's are virtually identical. Also, both are on tap to hit their 200-game breakout threshold this season, so that factor doesn't point to one over the other. Robertson though is 23 versus Hughes being 21; and although he's not at all in danger of slowing down any time soon, him being older might suggest we're more likely to be seeing the best he has to offer now, whereas Hughes is likelier to have yet another gear.

Robertson has seen his SOG and scoring rates increase every season of his career thus far, and they are on track to do so again, this despite his ice time being down over a minute and not even getting 2:30 man advantage minutes per game. The ice time situation is due, as I touched upon above, to Dallas seemingly having adopted an approach with three scoring lines; so whereas I was expecting Robertson to see a big jump in ice time when Rick Bowness departed, the opposite has been true thus far.

On the one hand that's a good thing in that his ice time has only one way to go and that's up; however, it also makes his output a bit more suspect, as players don't normally produce like he is without taking the ice for 19:00+ per game. Robertson's IPPs are fantastic though……..perhaps too much so. All that might mean is he's closer to a 100-point guy than beyond.

As for Hughes, he's getting top minutes, but there's also the fact Nico Hischier has found his game. Of course there have been plenty of examples of one-two punches at center; but New Jersey is a more balanced team now than it looked like they'd be when Hughes debuted, which will perhaps make it so it's more difficult for Hughes to score in droves. Look no further than Hughes' IPP, which is down from 77.8% in 2021-22 to 65.5% this season, likely due to him sharing the ice with more capable players. Still, like Robertson, Hughes' SOG and scoring rate have improved every season thus far, and he's firing pucks on net big time for 2022-23. His SH% has taken a hit; but it's down more than expected, that is unless last season it was abnormally high. Tough to say given the sample size.

This is very close; so much so that I'm going to look at IPP as the tiebreaker. Robertson finds a way to factor into scoring so often that I have to go with him. Yes Hughes shoots more and is young enough to still turn into Nathan MacKinnon; however, his added shot volume seems to be having a negative effect on his SH%, which is an area where Robertson thrives; and Hughes is getting a lot more ice time than Robertson, such that Hughes likely won't get more whereas Robertson could realistically see one to two or even more minutes per game if not this season than in the future. So I've got Robertson here.

Topic #3 – Who should tally more points over the rest of 2022-23: Shane Pinto or Gabriel Vilardi?

Two of the bigger surprises in this still young season, the magic question is whether – and, if so, to what extent – either or both are "for real." Looking at top level data first, Vilardi is older and has nearly a full season's worth of collective NHL experience than Pinto. That having been said, Pinto is 21-years-old and this is the third season in which he's appeared in the NHL. Looking at their AHL outputs doesn't differentiate them, as both were collectively right below the point per game mark during their tenures there.

Villardi is a slightly higher volume shooter and is getting more ice time overall and on the PP. Despite him having cooled off of late, his early success likely has earned him a long leash, plus LA draws a lot of penalties and runs balanced PP units, which means Viladri is likely to have a steady PP gig, whereas even if Pinto gets PP1 time it's not set in stone and Ottawa's PP2 is less deep given the injury to Josh Norris.

Looking at the all-important overall IPP data point for youngsters, Vilardi's is likely far too high this season even after he's cooled; however, the fact that it was above 70% in one of his prior campaigns is a great thing to see. As for Pinto, his sample size is much smaller, but for what it's worth his IPP has never been close to 70%, this season included. Also, his trials as the second line center haven't gone well. Although Ottawa isn't brimming with other options for that role, they likely won't trot Pinto out there game after game if he can't score and brings down their other top sixers.

There's no true certainty in fantasy hockey, the way things have transpired and given the likely outcomes going forward, I think if the rest of the season played out ten times Vilardi would outpoint Pinto on at least eight of those occasions. Of the two I will take Vilardi.

Topic #4 – In a 10 team, keep 24, H2H league with rosters of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 4 Bench, 3IR, 1IR+, 2NA, and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, Goalies: GS, W, GA, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO a team has, as its line-up:

F1: Matthew Tkachuk, Mika Zibanejad, Kirill Kaprizov
F2: Brady Tkachuk, Jack Hughes, Matt Boldy
F3: Trevor Zegras, Elias Pettersson, Alexis Lafreniere
F4: Sam Bennett, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tanner Jeannot
F Bench: Cole Perfetti, Anton Lundell, Nico Hischier

G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Thatcher Demko
G Bench: Jake Oettinger

D: Adam Fox, Miro Heiskanen, Darnell Nurse, Zach Werenski, Dougie Hamilton
D Bench: Alexander Romanov

IR/IR+: Bowen Byram, Max Pacioretty, Jakub Chychrun
NA: Jesper Wallstedt

The team received a trade offer of its Heiskanen & Zegras for Thomas Chabot and Tim Stutzle. Is it a deal worth making? Stutzle has C and LW eligibility, but will that be too many Ottawa guys?

Looking at the forwards first, Zegras is arguably on a par with Stutzle if not better, plus he's "the guy" in Anaheim, whereas Stutzle has Josh Norris in the picture, with Norris being a PP weapon and, when healthy, perhaps pushing Stutzle to PP2 with Zegras being on PP1 for sure. That all being said, Ottawa has a better supporting cast, making it so Stutzle, even if not a top liner, will still have productive deployment. Yes, Stutzle is better in multi-cat, but not enough to clearly tilt the scales, especially when those areas are amply provided by other players on the roster.

As for the defensemen pieces, I've said it before but it bears repeating – for someone who's received such amazing deployment as Chabot has, he should've be fared better. He's been stuck at the 50-55 point level for the last two years. With Jake Sanderson looking very good thus far, including since Chabot's injury, that could lead to a situation where when Chabot does return his "the guy" status might be in doubt or at least shakier. As for Heiskanen, he has Nils Lundqvist to contend with; however, he's yet to have the tenure at the top for several years like Chabot has. Plus, Lundqvist is right shooting, whereas Hieskanen shoots left, while both Chabot and Sanderson are left shooting. If Lundqvist makes PP inroads, it doesn't have to be at the expense, per se, of Heiskanen. Heiskanen also has looked strong in early action, as many felt he would once John Klingberg was finally out of the equation. Here too, the Ottawa player is better in multi-cat, but I see that as a minor factor versus the more important area of scoring.

From where I sit, I wouldn't consider Chabot or Stutzle upgrades to Heiskanen or Zegras, and in fact see them as being the lesser – especially Chabot – of the two options. It would be one thing if the Sens had exploded like some – myself included – expected they might; but my guess is this other team realizes Ottawa isn't meeting lofty expectations and is trying to upgrade at both positions, so I'd pass on the deal.

Topic #5 – In a points only keeper, should a GM trade their Pavel Buchnevich for Clayton Keller?

Whenever I talk about Buchnevich I'm obliged to point out that every single season thus far in his career he's improved his SOG rate and scoring rate. That's five straight campaigns! I realize SOG isn't counted here; however, it positively impacts scoring, so it matters in the grand scheme of things. Although it is true the Blues seem content for at least the time being to have three scoring lines, that didn't stand in the way of Buchnevich besting the point per game mark last season. Yes, it may give him a lower ceiling; however, in due time either the Blues will make its top scorers, of which Buchnevich definitely is one, a focal point again, or Buch will leave as a UFA after 2024-25. That being said, by then he'll be 30, with Keller only 27.

Keller is someone I covered in a Goldipucks column in May, where I touched upon the fact that even on teams that might struggle offensively, players can shine. In fact, they could be more apt to do so because those teams lean on them so heavily. Yes, by the same token the other team's top defensive players can be deployed to shut them down; however, last season the Coyotes were downright terrible and it didn't stop Keller from thriving. And he did so despite poor PPPts and room to shoot even more.

Of course Buchnevich won't continue to make gains every season, especially in St. Louis and with the hold he's dug for 2022-23. He's shown enough to prove he's someone from whom point per game output normally should be expected. More though? That might be a tall order until, as noted, he leaves as a UFA or St. Louis goes back to its top players getting heaps of ice time. Keller I'd also peg as someone with point per game downside, but his ceiling is well higher. For him to have done what he's done despite the talent – or lack thereof – surrounding him speaks to him being a special player. That's why I think I have to give the edge to Keller. He has it in him given his age – three years younger than Buchnevich – and what's he's managed to do thus far, to be a truly elite player, whereas Buchnevich's steady climb has him probably right at where his ceiling might be. In short, this is a trade I'd make.

Topic #6 – In a 12 Team H2H Non Keeper with daily starts and starting line-ups of 2C, 3W, 3D, 1F, 2G and skater categories of G(4), A(3), GWG(3), PPPts(1), SHG(0.4), HIT(0.3), BLK(0.3), should an Elias Pettersson owner consider trading him straight up for Kyle Connor?

Here's the thing about Connor – in every season where he's played over 56 games his scoring rate and SOG per game have both climbed. On the plus side, Connor's SH% didn't change last season despite him shooting more, plus his offensive zone starting percentage was stable, and his secondary assists rate was roughly his norm. But his IPPs were higher, as although three times his overall IPP was 69.5%-70.4%, it was 81.6% last season, while on the PP it was 71.1% after only once previously being above 60.0%. This season his IPPs are closer to their norms. But his SH%, even after his recent hat trick, is unsustainably low, such that if it was his career rate he'd be back above a 90-point scoring pace. Although there seem to be warning signs when it comes to Connor's 2021-22, he still passes the sniff test as a 90+ point player.

Pettersson ended last season on a torrid 25 points in 19 games pace, shooting the puck far more than he had his entire career. For 2022-23 he's not eased off the gas pedal. His SOG rate is still considerably higher than his previous norm and his SH% is right where it should be. His reward has been markedly increased ice time overall and on the PP. I'm still concerned about his IPPs though, as other than his rookie season his overall IPP has never been above 65.4%, while on the PP it's been an even worse story, with his best as a non-rookie being 63.2%. Sure enough, this season they're in his usual territory well under the 70% I like to see. He's also had a very high percentage of secondary assists at 69.2% and his team's 5×5 shooting percentage while he's on the ice stands at 12.9%, which is quite high. Low IPP and high secondary assists suggest a player not being an offensive driver, which is concerning.

I'm not putting Pettersson in Connor's echelon just yet, especially in a non-keeper and given the IPP and secondary assists factors, as while I do believe Pettersson might have a higher ceiling, most likely that would come in another couple of seasons, while Connor is in peak form now, and should be fine once his SH% rebounds. For the rest of 2022-23 I'm taking Connor.

Topic #7 – In a 12 team, keep 4 roto league counting G, A, Pts, +/-, PIM, HIT, PPPts, SHP, GWG, W, GAA, SV%, SV, SO, a GM who owns Jake Oettinger and Jack Hughes has been offered Juuse Saros and Mitch Marner as a trade. The team also has Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Aleksander Barkov, in terms of impact on future keepers. Should they accept the deal?

At first glance, this seems tempting. Marner, although four years older than Hughes, is a 90-point downside player with far better peripherals than Hughes, who is definitely weakest in multi-cat leagues. Ironically, the team has MacKinnon, who some – myself included as noted above – think Hughes could become; emphasis on "could". The emergence of Nico Hischier has made it so Hughes won't be a one man show in New Jersey. Still, MacKinnon hummed along just fine last season in Colorado even as Nazem Kadri was exploding.

The big question when it comes to Hughes is his SH%, which last season was 15.8%, or more than double what it had been in any of his previous campaigns well above what it is this season. Beyond just leading to points, SH% measures a player's talent. Need proof? Of the 124 instances of forwards scoring 90+ points in a season dating back to 2000-01, a mere six did so without a double-digit SH%, and each of those six had 65+ assists, which is not Hughes' type of game.

If we raise the SH% threshold to 12.0% or higher, all but 20 of the 124 met it. Beyond just meaning more goals, SH% is indeed tied to higher scoring overall. Marner has had a SH% of 10.0% or higher every season of his career, and it's been trending higher even as he's taking more SOG per game. With Marner's SH% at 10.0% right now, it's just as realistic to envision him seeing his rise as Hughes', and Hughes just might just be a non-selective shooter, which, if past data is to be relied upon, could prevent him from being a consistently elite player.

The other factor in Marner's favor is something else he's done his entire career, and that's have an overall IPP of 70% or greater. Yup, every single season. Although Hughes was well above the 70%-mark last season, he's back below it for 2022-23; and in Hughes' prior two seasons he was even further from it. So for this piece of the trade, the scales tilt to Marner.

What about the goalies? Some might look at Oettinger's 30 wins in only 48 games played last season and wonder if he's for real. Well not only has he looked great in 2022-23, after an out of this world playoffs, but when looking at other goalies who had 30+ wins in a season but didn't play more than 50 games that same campaign, and you get Matt Murray, who we know didn't live up to early promise. But check out these other names: Chris Osgood, Patrick Roy, Andy Moog, and Grant Fuhr. While of course past results don't dictate future outcomes, that is amazing company in which to find oneself. Plus, Dallas looks to be a team on the rise.

Saros had a superb 2021-22; but let's keep in mind his 38 wins was almost as many as his previous high for games played in a season! That having been said, from 2016-17 through last season, no netminder who played in 200+ games had as high of a cumulative quality start % as Saros, and it's not even close, as he's a 62.0% and the next highest goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy, is at 58.9%. And among those in the top ten, Saros is the only one who didn't average one Really Bad Start per every ten games. And although Saros has looked subpar for 2022-23 thus far, I think he's done enough for long enough to remain in the conversation as an elite goalie.

Yet again, the comparison also involves one who's four years older than the other. But with goalies that's less of a concern, as they can remain elite well into their 30s and Saros is hardly "old" at 27. Although Oettinger might become another superb goalie like those others who had as many wins in as few games when that young, Saros' longer track record puts him on at least an even par with Oettinger. With Marner "better" than Hughes and Saros and Oettinger at worst a wash, it seems like a winning trade and thus one I'd make.

Topic #8 – In a 14 team, H2H, daily start, minimum 3 goalie appearances, 1 Year league with categories of G, A, PPP, +/-, PIM, Hits, SOG, GWG // W, SV, GAA, SV%, SHO, a team that has Connor Hellebuyck and Vitek Vanacek is thinking of "selling high" on Vanecek in a effort to perhaps get Jacob Markstrom, Juuse Saros, or Alexander Georgiev? Should they do so?

First off, this is a one-year league, so as important – if not more so – than whether or not Vanecek is a sell high is whether the goalie for whom he'd be traded is indeed a buy low. In other words, trading Vanecek in a one-year league would only make sense if, over the course of the rest of 2022-23, the goalie that would be obtained would outperform Vanecek. From where I sit, I want to focus first on the likely targets before deciding whether I'd be willing to part with Vanecek.

As noted above, Saros is a lot better goalie than he's been for 2022-23. In a keeper league, the data I dug up does suggest he should still be viewed as an elite netminder. This team need look no further than the other goalie it owns in Connor Hellebuyck as evidence that even top tier netminders can have woes which stretch an entire season. When we look at the stats from 2021-22, was there a goalie who started as poorly as Saros but turned it around and not by virtue of changing teams? Jack Campbell and Jacob Markstrom started hot but cooled, yet I'm blanking on a goalie who emerged as poorly as Saros has after this many games and went on to have a very good season. Although goalies can and do have slow starts, I worry that we're far enough into the season as to wonder whether a goalie, even one with the stellar credentials of Saros, will right his ship.

As for Markstrom, take away the first quarter of 2021-22 and his stats have been up and down, and good enough for him to be a lower tier #1 guy, but not good enough to put him in the elite category. For Georgiev, him never once having posted a season where he had over 50% quality starts worries me. If the Avs stick with Georgiev, I envision him having a rest of the season that ends up being similar to what he's done thus far, albeit with a more of a chance he gets worse than improves.

What about Vanecek? Interestingly, although his GAA and SV% look great, in his first 11 games, despite racking up eight wins he had two really bad starts, just six quality starts, and his GSAA was 2.85. Those numbers are not great. His high danger save percentage was under 0.800, which put him in the bottom quarter of goalies who've played 250+ minutes and his average goal distance was 21.64, which also puts him in the lowest echelon of goalies. The conclusion to be drawn is Vanecek is playing as well as he is more so because of the team in front of him than his own abilities. Deciding whether to trade him or not boils down to whether one thinks the Devils will be able to do as well as they have been, in which case Vanecek should still fare well in these categories. In view of this data, I might entertain trading Vanecek for Markstrom or Saros and bank on their talent or situation leading to better rest of season numbers more so than New Jersey being able to play at this level over the remainder of 2022-23.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.