Ramblings: Scoring Chance Contributions from Hughes, Hintz, Stone, Dellandrea, Konecny, Necas, and Others – November 25

Michael Clifford

2022-11-25

There is a lot of data to sift through in the fantasy hockey realm. Just perusing our Frozen Tools alone can have someone lost for hours, creating their own reports and parameters to see who is performing well, who isn't, signs of regression, changes in usage, or a whole slew of other reasons. One data set I like to use is from Corey Sznajder, a guy who hand-tracks hundreds of games every year across dozens of different micro-stats. One subset of these stats I've found useful are scoring chances and scoring chance assists, or passes leading to teammate scoring chances. Combining those two into scoring chance contributions (SCC) is helpful in picking out who is really helping generate scoring opportunities for himself or his team and who is not.

Of course, we are still just a quarter of the way-ish into the season and because there are so many games, we aren't looking at huge samples. A decent chunk of forwards have 100-plus 5-on-5 minutes tracked with many in the 60-100 range. I am going to use a cut-off of 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is only five games for most players, but can get us pointed in the right direction. We are also looking at a per-60-minute rate as well.

The Top Three

It probably isn't a huge surprise, but Jack Hughes, Brady Tkachuk, and Nathan MacKinnon are first, second, and third on our list, with Hughes out in front by 18% over second-place Tkachuk. If I am recollecting properly, they have been the top-3 all season long. People may wonder where someone like Connor McDavid is here, but I'd remind everyone that nearly half his production (17/35 points) has been on the man advantage. Edmonton has been one of the worst 5-on-5 scoring teams in the league this year, with only Chicago, Arizona, and Winnipeg scoring less per minute.

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