Ramblings: Rossi Demoted; Holtz Recalled; Galchenyuk Signs; Stamkos Shines in Buffalo; Gaudreau Rolling – November 29

Michael Clifford

2022-11-29

Likely the biggest story surrounding the Minnesota Wild heading into this season was the anticipated performances from Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi. With the team so cap-strung thanks to the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, and losing Kevin Fiala as a result, they needed these young potential stars to step up in a big way on cheap contracts. Boldy has been very good with nine goals and 16 points in 21 games while Rossi had one point (an assist) in 16 games. He had been healthy scratched of late, and the writing was on the wall for what was to come:

This is far from a death-knell on his career or long-term fantasy value. There are stars in the league right now who made it to the NHL and then were demoted back to the AHL. Names like Leon Draisaitl, Cole Caufield, Troy Terry, Tage Thompson, and Filip Forsberg come to mind. Rossi will get lots of opportunity to sort out whatever he needs to and be back in the NHL this season.

For fantasy owners in dynasty leagues, now would be the time to make a pitch to trade for him. He just turned 21 years old a couple of months ago and has lots of time to develop into the player fantasy owners were hoping for him to be when he was drafted in the top-10 back in 2020. Unless he just flames out, Rossi's fantasy value won't be any lower than it is right now, making him an ideal buy-low candidate for those building dynasty rosters for 2023-24 and beyond.

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Alexander Holtz was recalled by the New Jersey Devils on Monday, sliding onto the fourth line and second PP unit thanks to the injury to Nathan Bastian. Holtz had four points in three games down in the AHL, landing 13 shots on goal in that span. I believe he's ready for full-time NHL action, but his fantasy value will likely remain low. The team does not seem to think he's a top-6 option for them, at least not right now, and skating 11 minutes a night doesn't help any player's fantasy value. Let's hope he's finally here to stay, though.

With Bastian out, Dawson Mercer was lined up on Jack Hughes's wing and stayed on the top PP unit, where he was when Bastian left their latest game. That kind of role – one I was hoping for from Holtz – does have a lot of fantasy value and owners should go check their waiver wires. Mercer was over 20 minutes in that game on Saturday and his scoring chance data – the stuff I reference from Corey Szjander's game tracking – was very strong to start the season (in a small sample). If he can keep up his offensive contributions, he could hang onto these roles for a while. Just beware that after Monday's game, the Devils have just four games in the next two weeks. He is not a great short-term fix for those in head-to-head leagues.

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Alex Galchenyuk is back in the NHL:

Colorado is still going through it with injuries – Martin Kaut wasn't at practice on Monday due to illness – so this became a bit more necessary. Whether there is anything to give here fantasy-wise, well, I have my doubts. With that said, I did not have J.T. Compher Gets PP1 Minutes For Colorado on my Bingo card before the season so there's no telling what can happen here until the roster fills back out. Keep an eye on the situation, I suppose.

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Patrik Laine was back skating for Columbus on Monday:

That he's on the ice at all is a good sign. He still has more work to go through and steps to take before he's in the lineup, but this is certainly a move in the right direction. Laine has played just eight games this season, posting four points, so what kind of player he is when he gets back is an open question. The team is still without a plethora of blue liners and that won't help matters, either.

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Meanwhile, Teuvo Teravainen was skating for Carolina:

The team said he will join them on the upcoming road trip that starts Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. They play six in a row on the road and have just five games in the next two weeks. There are chances to slide him in the lineup without having to put too much pressure on him in a short timespan.

Teravainen has not been his usual self this year with zero goals and seven points in 14 games. Shooting 0% for 17% of the season is never a good thing but there is some positive regression to go through here. What is hurting him more than anything else was losing that top PP role; 31 of his 65 points a year ago were with the man advantage. When he had a career-best 76 points in 2018-19, he had 24 PPPs. He had just one this season and the box stats bear out his diminished PP role.  

Carolina has been experimenting with line combinations, at all strengths, in Teravainen's absence. Could he regain his PP1 job at some point? There are lots of fantasy owners hoping so but don't forget that Max Pacioretty has also been skating and is hopeful to return a bit earlier than expected. There are a lot of offensive options when everyone is healthy and that means an uphill battle for Teravainen's PP value.

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Robert Thomas was out of the lineup for St. Louis on Monday night, but the team said it's just a day-to-day thing. There doesn't seem to be much to worry about here, but alarm bells always go off whenever a player misses time. It is hard to trust coaches about injury information when they have no real incentive to ever tell the truth. Thomas had four goals and 19 points in 21 games to date.

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Ivan Barbashev lined up as the second-line centre in place of Thomas, getting moved to his PP unit as well. Depending how long Thomas is out – it shouldn't be long, but again, coaches – Barbashev could see a little fantasy boost, even if he was having a good season in banger leagues anyway.

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Micah Blake McCurdy is one of the most prominent hockey analysts in the social media sphere and has posted a lot of very valuable work over the years. He runs the website HockeyViz that I sometimes reference in my Ramblings. Mr. McCurdy posted a study/analysis of aging curves among NHL players that I think people should take the time to read. A few key points that I will highlight:

  • Offensive impact peaks earlier in a player's career than defensive impact. Both tend to peak by the time a player reaches their age-25 season.
  • Impact on the power play and the penalty kill takes a bit longer as they peak sometime around ages 25-27 and PP impact can stay strong right until a player is in their late-20s.
  • Defensemen keep improving their impacts on the power play as they age with guys being very good into their 30s.
  • Goaltenders also peak a bit later than offensive players, with their best impacts being from roughly the age of 25 through the age of 29.

Again, these are just trends in the NHL as a whole and there are always outliers. There is a lot more to the study as well so again, just go read it. It is very interesting and has a lot of implications for fantasy hockey players.

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Yegor Sharangovich scored twice while Jack Hughes tallied for the third straight game as New Jersey took a 5-3 win over the New York Rangers. Hughes now has 12 goals in 23 games, just about on the same goal/game pace he was in 2021-22. The fact that he's done it while shooting just 12%, down from 15.8% a season ago, speaks to his shot volume and the upside he has if he can get back to that level.

Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, and Vincent Trocheck all scored in the loss.

Sharangovich is now on pace for nearly a 30-goal season and he's doing it without a power-play tally yet on the season. It is doubtful he ever gets meaningful minutes given the depth of the roster when healthy, but he could have sneaky value in non-banger leagues.

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Toronto took a 4-2 win in Detroit as the big stars for the Leafs shone again. Auston Matthews had a goal, an assist, five shots, and five blocks in quite the fantasy performance. Mitch Marner extended his point streak to 17 games with a goal, his third straight game with a marker, while William Nylander added another.

Rasmus Sandin had a goal and an assist, putting up two total shots with two hits in a very good fantasy night for him. Mark Giordano had an assist, a shot, and a pair of hits as his increased role continues to reap fantasy rewards.

Matt Murray saved 42 of 44 shots in another very good effort on his part in net.

Moritz Seider had a goal, an assist, three shots, and a hit in arguably his best fantasy night of the season. After starting the year with two points in 10 games, he now has nine points in his past 11. He's looked a lot more like the player he was last year.

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Steven Stamkos scored twice, including the overtime winner, to complete Tampa Bay's 6-5 comeback victory over Buffalo. The Sabres had a 5-3 lead with six minutes left in the third but a Stamkos goal, followed by Nikita Kucherov's power-play tally, gave us a 5-5 score at the end of regulation. Stamkos finished the game with two goals, two assists, one block, and a hit in a superlative evening. Kucherov had a goal and two assists while Brayden Point also scored twice.

New Sabre Tyson Jost scored for Buffalo, as did Jack Quinn, Jeff Skinner, and Tage Thompson. Thompson also had an assist, and he's now up to 28 points on the year in just 22 games. It took him to game 38 last season to do the same.

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Johnny Gaudreau was a game-time decision with an illness for Columbus, but he dressed and put up a goal and an assist in their shootout loss at home to Vegas. That makes 13 points in his last nine games for the offseason signee.

Alex Pietrangelo was a late scratch for personal reasons and Shea Theodore played over 27 minutes. Something to keep an eye on.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-11-29 at 07:44

    Oddly enough Min has 3.9 mil in cap space, the 8th best in the NHL today. Actually surprised Guerin hasn’t spent some of it to bring in help at forward as Min has been pretty average across the board with the exception of their PK unit which has been solid. With the exceptions of Kaprisov, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy Min have struggled to score.

    They are hanging in there and currently hold down a playoff spot but the west is far weaker than the east, 10 teams have a negative goal differential in the west most significantly so, to only 5 in the east.

    • Chris 2022-11-29 at 12:21

      Agreed , they could go after Horvat if Van’s selling and the rumours are true or Dumba + Greenway for Karlsson & SJ retains 4m$

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