Eastern Edge: Lindholm and McAvoy; Cozens Cruising; Hronek’s Superlative Start
Brennan Des
2022-11-30
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss how Charlie McAvoy's return has affected Hampus Lindholm, the beginning of a breakout in Buffalo, and Filip (not that one) filling up the net.
Since Charlie McAvoy returned to the lineup on November 10th, Lindholm has posted five points in eight appearances. A closer look reveals that three of those five points were scored in one game, and that Lindholm has failed to register a point in his last four outings. Regardless, five points in eight games is strong production for a defenseman, even though it's a step back from the point-per game pace Lindholm held through 13 appearances while McAvoy was sidelined.
When McAvoy returned, Lindholm was bumped off the top power-play unit, dropping his share of Boston's time with the man advantage from 60% to 27%. Lindholm had four power-play points in 13 games while McAvoy was sidelined (0.31 PPP/game) and has just one in eight since McAvoy returned (0.13 PPP/game). Boston is a strong team at even strength, so Lindholm will probably be able to score at a respectable rate for the rest of the season. However, without a prominent power-play role, his production won't come close to the level we saw early in the year. Although the window to sell high on Lindholm may have closed, I think it's reasonable to expect around a 45-point pace from him for the rest of the campaign, which makes him worth
rostering in most fantasy leagues.
The seventh overall pick of the 2019 draft is quietly having a breakout start to his third season in the NHL. With 16 points in 22 appearances this year, Cozens is currently scoring at a 60-point pace.
Most of the focus in Buffalo has been on the team's top line of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. That recognition has been well-deserved as all three players are scoring at or above a point-per-game pace. Although their output has been impressive, offense is expected from that line as they start more of their shifts in the offensive zone than the defensive zone. The opposite is true for Cozens, who holds an offensive zone start percentage of 43%, suggesting his strong output is not a product of favourable deployment. Cozens was recently promoted to Buffalo's top power-play unit, giving him more exposure to the aforementioned top trio. In his last five games, he's enjoyed a 64% share of Buffalo's total time with the man advantage – up from the 40% share he held in his first 17 outings. He only had one power-play point during those 17 games, but already has two in his last five thanks to the increased role. He's currently rostered in just 15% of Yahoo leagues, but I expect that number to rise as the season progresses. The Sabres play three more games this week, two of which are scheduled on 'light nights' when there aren't as many teams in action. At the very least, Cozens could be a solid streaming option for the rest of the week.
The 25-year-old defenseman has had an outstanding first quarter, posting 18 points in 21 appearances, which translates to 70 points over 82 games. He's been especially hot in recent weeks, tallying six goals and four assists in his last seven outings.
If Hronek was on my fantasy roster, I'd be reaching out to all my fellow fantasy managers, seeing what they're willing to trade for him. This is Hronek's fifth season in the NHL. In each of his first four campaigns, he's scored at roughly a 40-point pace. Even this season, prior to this recent hot streak, he had eight points in 14 games – a 47-point pace. His situation hasn't changed drastically enough to warrant him going from 40 points to 70 points. Could Hronek be a 50-point defenseman this season? Sure. Could he be a 70-point defenseman? Not as long as he's playing on the same team as Moritz Seider, who will always be ahead of him on the depth chart.
An interesting thing to note about Hronek's production so far is that eight of his 18 points have come with the man advantage. That's noteworthy because he's been playing on the second power-play unit and seeing just 43% of Detroit's total power-play time. Such deployment doesn't typically lead to such a high level of offense over the course of a full season. Some might argue that Detroit's second power-play unit is more talented than most, currently featuring Lucas Raymond and Tyler Bertuzzi, but the issue is more so the volume of opportunity rather than the quality of his power-play linemates. Hronek is on pace to finish the season with 31 power-play points. It's rare for players to post even 20+ power-play points while seeing less than 50% of their team's total time with the man advantage, so don't expect this level of power-play success from Hronek for the rest of the year. If you think the coaching staff in Detroit will give Hronek a shot on the top unit, maybe you hold onto him. I personally don't think that'll happen because I see Seider as the significantly more talented player. Even if Hronek got a shot on the top unit, I don't think he'd do a better job than Seider, so I don't expect such a promotion would last long. If you're able to sell high on Hronek right now, I think you'd be wise to do so.