Ramblings: Laine Returns; Voracek Out; Prospects and Selling the World Junior Hype (Dec 3)

Alexander MacLean

2022-12-03

I'm covering for Ian today, and since I'm out of my normal routine, I'm going to jump out of my usual wheelhouse and focus a bit more on some prospects today. Before I get to that though, a few game and injury notes, updates, and thoughts.

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Patrik Laine made his return (again) from an injury, and scored twice in Columbus' win. Johnny Gaudreau certainly liked having Laine back, assisting on both of his goals, and adding another assist on Gustav Nyqvist's goal later in the game.

It wasn't all good news for Columbus though, as it sounds like Jakub Voracek may be away from the team for a long while as he tries to recover from another concussion. He has been advised by doctors to take some time away from the game, which makes it sound as though his career could be in jeopardy. Best wishes to Voracek on a full recovery at some point.

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Anthony Cirelli may have fallen off of your radar, but he's finally back at practice, and may not be too far away now from returning to game action. He peaks at about a 50-point pace and under two shots per game. Don't get too excited about him, despite the name value and the team he plays for.

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We have the World Juniors coming up, starting before the end of the month. Prospect frenzy is soon going to be upon us, and that begins with the roster reveal for the participating teams.

This is a great time to buy in on some prospects before the event, and possibly flip the prospect for a lot more in another month or two as they get pushed onto the biggest prospect stage outside the NHL. If your prospect even puts up a moderate showing, their stock goes up just based on exposure. If they can put up some great numbers in the small sample size, then you just added an a-list value prospect to your fantasy team without doing anything.

The top-four teams Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the United States, in addition to Russia who isn't invited to the event, make up all of the medal winners from the past seven years. The Czechs, the Swiss, and especially the Germans have been growing though, so be ready for surprises.

Overall though, the majority of the relevant prospects come from the top-four teams. I'll go through a few prospects to watch on each team, that aren't the obvious Connor Bedard or Logan Cooley types.

Canada:

Joshua Roy – Roy may be the least highly-regarded of the names that could/should be in the Canada top-six at the tournament. That likely means no one's stock is as likely to rise as his. Get in now or don't get in at all!

Jordan Dumais – The top QMJHL scorer is averaging over two points per game right now and the only reason there isn't more hype about him is because of his small stature. He just doesn't stop scoring though, and it will be tough for Canada to leave him out of their top-nine as a result. If he does get regular minutes, scoring on this stage could help him be seen as a real A-list prospect rather than just a short guy who can score in the junior circuit.

Ethan Del Mastro – A likely top-pair defenceman for Canada, he may not have the same offensive upside as probable partner Olen Zellweger, but that's exactly why you buy in on him now and sell when the hype grows after he logs big minutes and picks up a few secondary assist in Canada's blowout games.

Finland:  

Ville Koivunen – Koivunen has some very translatable skills to the higher levels, and processes the game very quickly. He developed some great chemistry with Brad Lambert in previous tournaments, and if that carries over again, then he could be one of Finland's top scorers. Being a part of the Canes' system that is regarded as one of the better teams at the draft table doesn't hurt either.

Aaron Kiviharju / Aleksi Heimosalmi – Defenceman Kiviharju isn't draft eligible until 2024, but he's worth putting on your radar now just because. The other offensive defenceman on Finland that's worth looking into is another Carolina product who is a skilled player with plus skating. His offence is showing good development too, and a chance to shine as one of the main guys on a strong Finish team should help his reputation. If he can get the top power play spot over Kiviharju, then he should rack up a lot of points.

Sweden:

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Fabian Lysell – Maybe the fastest player in the tournament, Lysell is an excellent scorer, and he should lead the way on a talented Sweden squad. He's also a Bruins draft pick, and there isn't a lot of other competition in their prospect cupboard. He could be NHL relevant sooner than later. Maybe someone you choose to hang onto instead, but if you are going to move him, you likely get peak value for him in January.

Noah Ostlund – One of the higher-drafted players I'll profile here, but he's one of my favourites. He was in the top-10 on my board from the 2022 draft, and it sounds like the Habs (and maybe a couple other teams) had him in the top-five. There's a fun article I'm linking here if you can either read French or translate the webpage. Ostlund is a very smart player, and of the Djurgardens trio from the 2022 draft (also including Liam Ohlund and Jonathan Lekkerimakki) Ostlund is the one who is following up last year's success with the best numbers this year.

Isak Rosen – Another Sabres prospect that has fallen down some lists since he has been drafted, and doesn't really appear much in the public eye at the moment, Rosen is someone you should get back on your radar.

Elias Salomonsson – Behind Simon Edvinsson, Salomonsson is the offensive name to know on Sweden after it was confirmed that Mattias Havelid would be unable to play in the tournament due to injury. Salomonsson plays as big of a game as his name is long, and has a powerful shot to match. He's the kind of player that will stand out even for casual fans while watching, which will help bring his stock up.

United States:

Sasha Pastujov – The United States has a good team, but most of their top players are already very well regarded, and there isn't a lot of space for others to make a big impact. Pastujov is just what we're looking for though. Drafted as a third-rounder in 2021, the skilled winger has shown well at the OHL level, and should continue to rise up the fantasy prospect rankings over the next couple of years before he becomes a full-time NHLer.

Sean Behrens / Shai Buium – Just like up front, there are two big and obvious names on the American back-end: Lane Hutson and Luke Hughes. Besides them, it's a bit of a dart throw on which players will show the best in the tournament. My bet is that whichever of Behrens or Buium plays with Hutson and gets the sheltered offensive-zone deployment, will be the next-best thing to stand out. Keep an eye on the lines as the tournament rolls around.

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Everyone is saying that the 2023 draft is loaded, we all know that by now. There's the top tier of at least three players tha would have gone first overall in the last number of drafts. There are also a few others like Will Smith, Leo Carlsson, and Edward Sale that may have gone first in the last number of classes as well. It doesn't drop off from there. The players in the 30-range from the 2023 class are looking to be equivalent in their projection to players in the early 20s from a normal draft class. It has the elite level you crave, it has the depth to make your other picks worth keeping, and it's just around the corner!

What this draft does seem to be lacking, it those can't-miss defencemen prospects at the top of the draft, as well as a depth on defence. We see teams reach for defencemen every year, and this year will be no different. For fantasy leagues, defencemen typically fall more than the forwards due as a result of longer wait times and less projectability on their fantasy relevance. However, there are two names I want to draw your attention to at this stage of scouting the 2023 draft.

The one you're more likely to have heard of is Lukas Dragicevic, who plays for the Tri-City Americans in the WHL. A third of the way through the season, he has 32 points in 23 games, and is in on a 38% share of his team's overall goals – not just goals when he's on the ice, but all of them. That's 13th overall out of all draft eligible skaters (thanks to Gavin Chiasson for those numbers). For context on the scoring, Dante Mateychuk put up 64 points in 65 games, and Kevin Korchinski notched 65 in 67 for their draft-eligible seasons last year. Those are two highly sought after and high-upside defencemen, and Dragecevic is blowing them out of the water. This draft doesn't just end after Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, and Matvei Michkov.

The other defenceman I'm starting to hear a lot about, is Axel Sandin-Pellikka – also he has an awesome name. He's tougher to contextualize playing in the SHL and on the U20 Nationell team, but his PNHLe which is a single stat that weights a player's scoring at their age and in their specific league to show what their future peak NHL production may be is currently at 69. He plays both sides of the puck well, but is always thinking offence. A good skater with an average frame, Sandin-Pellikka may still not be a top-20 pick come draft day, but he's definitely one of the top offensive blueliners available in this draft class.

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Ian's taking my Wednesday, so I'll see you in a week and a half!

In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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