Frozen Tool Forensics: Power Play Percentages on the Blue Line for Chychrun, Matheson, Sandin, and More

Chris Kane

2022-12-09

Every season we see an unexpected defenseman or two dramatically increase their fantasy stock over the course of the season. Sometimes it is their peripheral contributions or higher than expected five on five scoring, but usually it is because they have also ascended to the top power-play for their respective teams.

For this week we are diving into team deployment on the power play and comparing that to Yahoo's roster percentages. The goal is to find a few defensemen options for folks either in need of some D support, or who are hoping to catch the next big thing.

For process here I exported the Time On Ice report for defensemen over the last two weeks. The goal was to get a snapshot of recent deployment for each team. Given the smaller sample I am using both percent of the team's total power play and total power-play time to give context for each team and how they are deploying their defensemen. The roster percentages are pulled (somewhat laboriously) from Yahoo. I used a couple of filters to show defensemen getting over 55 percent of the team's power-play, and who were owned in less than 50% of leagues as a starting point, but also included a few teams that have had recent injuries which will impact deployment going forward. All data was pulled on 12/8 prior to the night's games so might look slightly different by the time the article is posted.

Arizona

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
JAKOB CHYCHRUNARI7602:3967%
SHAYNE GOSTISBEHEREAI757.32:3245%
J.J. MOSERARI742.31:528%

The player highlighted here was Shayne Gostisbehere, though the entire situation bears closer examination. Gostisbsbehere started the season as the sole power-play quarterback, but upon Jakob Chychrun's return they seem to be sharing power-play duties as their deployment matches almost exactly over those eight games. That means Ghost still has value as a potential top power-play QB with a roster percent of only 45 percent. Oddly though in their recorded last game (12/7) it was JJ Moser who got 60 percent of the power-play as the lone defensemen on the top unit with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. Moser would certainly be worth the swing if he maintains that deployment, but my guess is they revert back to one or both of Chychrun or Ghost very soon.

Columbus

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
MARCUS BJÖRKCBJ7733:35<4%
VLADISLAV GAVRIKOVCBJ726.41:18<4%

Marcus Björk became the top power-play QB in Columbus sort of by default because everyone else got injured. He has low rostered numbers because he hasn't done much. He barely shoots, and has only three hits and five blocks over his last four games. It is something, sure, but not enough to sustain in leagues where other categories besides points are counted. As far as points go there might be a sign of life as he has two over his last three games but that is coming on the heels of two points in the six games since he took the top power-play spot. He isn't very exciting, and Columbus is a bit of a mess right now, but is certainly an option if you are desperate.

Minnesota

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
CALEN ADDISONMIN770.43:2912%
JARED SPURGEONMIN725.41:1553%

Calen Addison sort of falls into the same bucket as Björk. He has been able to maintain the top power-play role more or less consistently in Minnesota but hasn't been putting up enough points to make him a consistent hold. He also hasn't been putting up enough peripherals to make up for that fact. His roster numbers spiked at the beginning of the season when it was announced he would get that prime deployment but have been dropping ever since. Recently though he has six points in his last seven games. His peripherals are still nonexistent so if he doesn't get a point he is doing literally nothing for you, but again, if you are in need of D he has been reasonably hot in the point department.

Montreal

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
MIKE MATHESONMTL768.93:4710%
CHRIS WIDEMANMTL2261:28<4%
ARBER XHEKAJMTL610.50:2922%

Mike Matheson's low roster numbers might have something to do with the fact that he was injured to start the season, or that managers are not very excited about Montreal, but Matheson has been ok to start. He has eight shots and three points over his last three games and points in five of nine to start his season. He still doesn't add much in the blocks or hits columns, but his shot rates are certainly an improvement over Björk and Addison.

Pittsburgh

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
KRIS LETANGPIT373.73:2679%
JEFF PETRYPIT771.94:0273%
PIERRE-OLIVIER JOSEPHPIT7251:24<4%

I suppose there really isn't much to say here, but with Kris Letang's health issues taking him out of the lineup Jeff Petry has taken over the top power-play role. Petry was relatively highly rostered prior, and that has only increased. He likely isn't available, but it is worth checking. The only other note then in deep leagues is that it has increased Pierre-Olivier Joseph's role on the second unit. He has two points and about two minutes of power-play time over his last four games.

St. Louis

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
TOREY KRUGSTL753.72:3766%
JUSTIN FAULKSTL842.82:0288%
COLTON PARAYKOSTL810.50:3012%

Like in Pittsburgh, Torey Krug's absence opens up a larger opportunity for already highly rostered Justin Faulk. It also means that Colton Parayko is seeing an increased role on the power-play and as much as St. Louis still seems to be running two units, the one with Parayko definitely has less star power. He saw 36 percent of the total power-play in the last game with Krug out but does have four points in his last four games, plus decent peripherals so he is worth a look while Krug is out.

Toronto

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
RASMUS SANDINTOR764.63:4024%
MARK GIORDANOTOR732.71:5220%
CONOR TIMMINSTOR117.10:41<4%

Another injury is another opportunity in Toronto. Rasmus Sandin has stepped into the void filled by Morgan Rielly and has been ok. He has five points in his last nine games and saw over 50 percent of the power-play time in all but one of those. He is an inconsistent shooter, but better for hits and blocks so there is at least something of a baseline there. Like with most of this list, he isn't running away with this opportunity, but he is providing some value if you need it.

And if you are interested – here are the breakdowns for the rest of the league. There are some interesting usages and rostered rates going on in Edmonton and Seattle, but most of the top guys are very highly rostered across leagues.

Boston

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
CHARLIE MCAVOYBOS656.43:1889%
HAMPUS LINDHOLMBOS628.81:4186%

Buffalo

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
RASMUS DAHLINBUF761.32:5299%
OWEN POWERBUF738.61:4855%

Carolina

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
BRENT BURNSCAR767.13:0796%
BRETT PESCECAR732.21:30<4%

Calgary

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
RASMUS ANDERSSONCGY862.33:3083%
NOAH HANIFINCGY841.12:1958%
MICHAEL STONECGY631.61:54<4%

Colorado

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
CALE MAKARCOL775.75:31100%
DEVON TOEWSCOL737.52:4493%
SAMUEL GIRARDCOL720.71:30<4%

Chicago

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
SETH JONESCHI761.42:5862%
CALEB JONESCHI6261:12<4%
IAN MITCHELLCHI119.71:11<4%

Dallas

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
MIRO HEISKANENDAL766.24:1895%
RYAN SUTERDAL730.51:59<4%

Detroit

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NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
FILIP HRONEKDET750.33:0481%
MORITZ SEIDERDET7472:5293%
BEN CHIAROTDET717.61:045%

Edmonton

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
TYSON BARRIEEDM851.72:5666%
EVAN BOUCHARDEDM847.52:4171%
DARNELL NURSEEDM817.10:5893%

Florida

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
BRANDON MONTOURFLA776.74:1786%
AARON EKBLADFLA770.13:5597%
GUSTAV FORSLINGFLA721.41:1276%

Edmonton

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
DREW DOUGHTYL.A650.72:0195%
SEAN DURZIL.A650.32:0047%

New Jersey

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
DOUGIE HAMILTONN.J770.13:2296%
DAMON SEVERSONN.J730.61:2820%

Nashville

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
ROMAN JOSINSH471.92:20100%
MATTIAS EKHOLMNSH427.60:548%

New York Islanders

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
NOAH DOBSONNYI774.23:4495%
RYAN PULOCKNYI7261:1837%

New York Rangers

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
ADAM FOXNYR878.43:53100%
JACOB TROUBANYR820.71:0185%

Ottawa

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
THOMAS CHABOTOTT670.64:3082%
JAKE SANDERSONOTT732.91:5240%

Philadelphia

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
TONY DEANGELOPHI7703:2367%
IVAN PROVOROVPHI834.51:3857%
TRAVIS SANHEIMPHI89.80:289%

San Jose

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
ERIK KARLSSONS.J878.33:1196%
MARIO FERRAROS.J221.71:00<4%
MATT BENNINGS.J816.20:40<4%

Seattle

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
VINCE DUNNSEA759.72:1456%
JUSTIN SCHULTZSEA740.11:3032%

Tampa Bay

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
MIKHAIL SERGACHEVT.B657.83:0691%
VICTOR HEDMANT.B6311:4099%

Vancouver

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
QUINN HUGHESVAN874.34:0998%
OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSONVAN826.21:2815%

Las Vegas

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
ALEX PIETRANGELOVGK370.53:3697%
SHEA THEODOREVGK861.32:52<4%
DANIIL MIROMANOVVGK326.80:50<4%

Winnipeg

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
JOSH MORRISSEYWPG772.93:4288%
NATE SCHMIDTWPG729.51:30<4%
NEAL PIONKWPG726.71:2156%

Washington

NameTeamGP%PPPPTOIYahoo Roster %
JOHN CARLSONWSH8794:1498%
ERIK GUSTAFSSONWSH821.41:09<4%

That is all for this week

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One Comment

  1. Sigfodr 2022-12-10 at 03:05

    You have LAK defense listed as Oilers, just a fyi.

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