Flip Livingstone's Picks

Three Saturday's worth of picks are in the books and I am really starting to settle in a little bit in terms of hitting some winners with regularity. On Friday, I went a perfect three-for-three (you can get my daily picks and analysis by following @Flips_Picks) and I would very much like to keep this mini-heater rolling into what is actually a relatively quiet board of NHL betting action for a Saturday.

Aside from three matinee games on the NHL schedule, we only have five matchups to choose from in terms of laying wagers – which makes sense given Friday was a busy night of hockey with 10 teams in action. With that said, however, many teams should be looking at playing their number two goaltending option on the second half of a back-to-back, which will obviously affect some of these betting situations.

I am expecting an evening full of goals and high-scoring finishes, so let's hammer some of these OVER bets and make some money. Good luck tonight and enjoy the hockey.

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2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 1-2
Silver: 1-2
Bronze: 3-0
Side bets: 7-1-1

Total Saturday Record: 12-5-1

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Gold Selection

Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: OVER 6.5 (-113)

If you skipped the intro up top let me reiterate: I am loving the OVER bets on this fine Saturday and this Wild-Canucks tilt is a major reason why. Usually, when I put together my research for this article every week at least one total jumps off the page as one that catches my eye in one direction or the other. This week it was this Vancouver-Minnesota matchup and the direction was most definitely in favor of the OVER.

Before even really digging into the numbers or recent trends you should know by now that both of these teams are going through struggles in their respective blue paint. Say what you will about Thatcher Demko (3-10-2, 3.93 goals-against, .883 save percentage) and his shaky season, before going down with injury he was the Canucks' best and seemingly only option at making any noise as a legit playoff team and now that he's gone, Spencer Martin and Collin Delia are left to pick up the pieces. That is far from a desirable goaltending situation for any time, let alone one that really struggles to play consistently in its own end.

Simply put: both of these squads are giving up a lot of goals right now, especially the Canucks, who are only surpassed by the Anaheim Ducks (118) and San Jose Sharks (107) for most goals allowed this season. As for the Wild, well, if you've watched any of Marc-Andre Fleury's "highlight" packs of late you will also already know Flower is also fighting it right now. The sure-to-be Hall-of-Famer is struggling while posting one of the worst starts to a season in his storied NHL career, which a 3.16 GAA and .892 save percentage would indicate. Fleury has also allowed four or more goals in four of his last six starts. (Check Goalie Post for confirmed starting goalie info once it becomes available.)

Oh, I almost forgot, the last two meetings between these two Western Conference foes? Both went OVER the number with a total of 16 goals across six periods of hockey. OK, the stat dump is officially done but come on, what else do you need to know? Let's hammer this OVER and collect our loot.

Silver Selection

Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Maple Leafs ML (-158)

Since the last bet explanation got a little long in the tooth, let’s keep this one VERY simple: the Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the best teams in the NHL right now and the Calgary Flames struggle on the road and just lost to Columbus. Need a bit more breakdown? I got you covered, just in case.

If you haven't been paying attention to the impressive heater the Maple Leafs are on then you are seriously slipping. The Buds are only three points adrift from the top spot in NHL behind the likes of the Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils, two teams that (for good reason) have garnered most of the attention so far as the top teams in the league this season. Toronto is more quietly establishing itself as a force in the East and a team looking to eagerly shed its playoff choke-artist moniker.

Three things jump out aside from the stellar run from the Leafs that have me backing the home team in this situation. Number one, the Flames are a poor road team, recording only three victories away from the Saddledome so far this season. Number two, Calgary played and lost to the lowly Blue Jackets last night and could only muster a single goal. Number three, Toronto is playing some of the tightest defense I have ever seen from this club and is getting sensational goaltending from both Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov.

This is a really tough spot for a Calgary group that also just performs poorly against Eastern Conference clubs, which their 4-10 record against Eastern Conference teams over their last 14 games would indicate. Maple Leafs keep it rolling with another home win, my Silver Pick of the night.

Bronze Selection

Buffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pick: OVER 6.5 (-150)

This is the second half of a home-and-home back-to-back between the Sabres and Penguins with both clubs playing their starting netminders in Tristan Jarry and Craig Anderson on Friday night. However, this means we should be treated to a goaltending showdown for the ages (NOT) between backups Casey DeSmith for Pittsburgh and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for Buffalo, two guys that have been letting in plenty of goals over their recent starts and both having iffy seasons at best so far.

The total has gone OVER the number in six straight games for the Sabres and six of their last seven games away from home. Much like I was feeling the spot in the Wild-Canucks game to go well OVER the total I am feeling the exact same way about this matchup – especially given the back-to-back games and backup goalie angle.

As for the Penguins side of things, Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in 12 of its last 16 games on home ice, so let's not overthink this one either and hammer another high-scoring game featuring two teams that score and allow goals on the regular. I have seen the total at some sportsbooks as high as seven, so make sure you shop around a little bit for the 6.5 and best odds. This one goes OVER in a hurry, my Bronze Pick of the evening.

Side Bets

Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders – Pick: Hurricanes ML (-143)
Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+110)
Buffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pick: Penguins PL -1.5 (+120)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcaster with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Brad Hayward’s Picks

Gold Selection

Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders – Pick: Under 6.0 goals scored (-120)

This surely feels like an early Metropolitan Division playoff game, and I suspect it will be played with tight defense by both teams.   Yes, the Isles played Friday night (and they scored SIX). but they held Ilya Sorokin for this game, and his stats for the season are NHL top-five for both GAA (2.33) and Save% (0.927).  The 'Canes are no easy team defensively either, ranking 6th – as did the Islanders before Friday – in fewest goals against for this season.  Carolina will be without top-line star Sebastian Aho, and down the middle they'll feature Paul Stastny, Jack Drury, Jordan Staal, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.   Not offensively terrifying, but good shut-down guys.   The league has been averaging over 6.3 goals per game, but this one won't hit that level.   

Silver Selection

Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Toronto to cover -1.5 goals (+155 puckline)

Have most fans even noticed how good the Leafs have been this year?   In the shadow of the Boston Bruins' outstanding start, Toronto is a very quiet 17-5-6, 40 points and 3rd overall in the NHL at the 28-game mark.  Mitch Marner's 21-game point streak has had much attention, rightfully so,  but their big four forwards are all producing.  Marner leads with 33 points, Auston Matthews has 14G-17A- 31 pts, John Tavares 13-14-27, and William Nylander 15-13-28.   Four other Leafs are over 10 points (Michael Bunting, 19).  Calgary is still searching for chemistry after their big roster moves over the offseason, and after last night's 3-1 loss in Columbus, their road record is a pedestrian 3-6-2.   I personally believe the Flames will pull it together in the second half, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them in the Western Conference finals.   But not tonight.  

Bronze Selection

Buffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pick: Tage Thompson scores a Goal (+120)

No I didn't predict five, nor would I play this game for overall team result, despite the Penguins' historical dominance over the Sabres (43-14-4 since Sidney Crosby joined the league for the '06-'07 season).    I'm simply impressed by Thompson's emergence as the focal point of the NHL's highest scoring team – yeah, that's Buffalo.  Backup goalkeepers start for both sides, then add in some ongoing bad blood (literally) after Jeff Skinner's crosscheck into Jake Guentzel's mouth… this game should have plenty of power plays and be entertaining, to say the least.    Thompson has also averaged 5 SOG over his last 11 games, so a side bet of Over 3.5 shots (-150) looks good.  

Side Bets

Buffalo Sabres @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Under 7.0 goals scored

Los Angeles Kings @ Montreal Canadiens – Goalscorer Arthur Kaliyev (+330)

Last week

My inaugural attempt at this went 1-1-1.  Kucherov (gold choice) with the power-play point was my win. 

Stick tap

…to the Arizona Coyotes, beating the Bruins 4-3 upon their return to their temporary home, after 14 game road trip.   Oh – it had been 12 years since their previous victory against Boston.