Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. Although at the end of the day in fantasy it's all about totals, sorting stats by Per 60 Minutes can be illuminating because it allows you to level the playing field and compare skaters who see dramatically different amounts of ice time.

This week, we will scan the rookie leader boards for points, hits, and power-play scoring to see which players might be in a position to post stronger totals with more ice time down the line.

Points Per 60

Matty Beniers (SEA) has slowed recently but continues to lead all rookies in scoring with 21 points in 26 games. For my Calder article in the Dobber Guide back in the summer, I anticipated that the main advantage Beniers would have over his peers was opportunity given Seattle's lack of depth down the middle. About a third of the way through the season, he indeed sits second in rookie ice time among forwards—behind only Noah Cates (PHI)—and that extra ice is helping bolster his totals.

Sorting by Points Per 60 (P/60), however, Beniers drops down into a three-way tie for third place with Cole Perfetti and Fabian Zetterlund at 2.8 points/60. Ahead of him are Jack Quinn (BUF) at 3.1 and Matias Maccelli (ARI) at 3.3. All four of Beniers' competitors in the Points/60 top five are averaging between two and four and a half minutes on ice per game less than him. In theory, if those four were to receive comparable ice time, they would have comparable points totals to Beniers. In practice, however, that theoretical point boost would be dampened by a corresponding increase in quality of competition.

Still, Maccelli is the current rookie leader in Points/60 and has been impressively consistent this year. He has only gone scoreless in back-to-back games twice since things kicked off in October, and he's playing for the Coyotes who sit fourth-last in the league in goals scored. Maccelli is the assist wizard of this rookie class with only two goals but a whopping 17 helpers. Although relatively unknown and/or underestimated in fantasy circles, his advantage coming into the season was an unmatched wealth of pro experience: he played 94 games in the Liiga (69 points) and then 47 in the AHL last year (57 points) before being called up after a ridiculous stretch of 18 points in 10 games for Tucson.

Despite his early success, sell high on Maccelli if you can—especially in multi-cat formats where he is an absolute category killer for shots (0.8/game) and hits (0.35/game). His excellent performance has cemented him a spot in the Coyotes' top six, which will become increasingly dangerous in the coming years. But regardless, I would definitely explore the trade market for him right now. Perhaps it's a personal preference, but I absolutely can't stand rostering players who don't shoot or hit like Robert Thomas (STL) and Maccelli's teammate Clayton Keller (ARI). They can give you a point per game and are very valuable in points-only leagues but will always be a drag in several categories in other formats.

Maccelli may be scoring a lot but his impact on other areas of the game leaves a lot to be desired. In terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), for instance, his overall contributions are fairly minimal even though his primary assist per 60 (A1/60) stat is excellent and shows how often his passes lead directly to goals for his teammates. If you are interested, here is a guide to what these various metrics mean and how they are calculated.

By comparison, here is Beniers' WAR. He positively impacts games for the Kraken all across the board. Even Strength Offence is surprisingly low—actually, I'm not sure what to make of that given that 16 of his 21 points came at evens—but he is drawing penalties, distributing to  teammates, finishing off plays, and just generally excelling in a top-six role alongside Jordan Eberle and Jared McCann.

This kid is out there looking like a number one center already. Here he is taking a critical face off in overtime, driving straight to the net, and getting the win. He's a special player.

MATTY BENIERS JUST SEVEN SECONDS INTO OT 😱 pic.twitter.com/xsbqwb7AvT

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 2, 2022

Second among rookies in P/60, Jack Quinn currently has 15 points in his last 16 games stretching back to late October. His ice time has been up the last few games playing on a red-hot kid line with JJ Peterka and Dylan Cozens, but his season average is still under 14 minutes a night. That limited opportunity makes his production that much more impressive; it also means his Per 60 stats offer more insights than his totals. He sits eighth among rookies with 7.1 Shots/60, for instance, even though he is averaging only 1.6/game on the year. His hit totals are nothing to write home about but he is still bringing something to the table with over half a hit per game, which works out to nearly three Hits/60.

Like Beniers, Quinn is currently sporting an impressive 99% WAR, meaning he is already a significant asset to this Sabres team. Given that Buffalo currently leads the league in Goals For, this is a fun team to own players from in fantasy right now. I figured it would take Quinn a couple years to start putting up meaningful NHL numbers but he is an increasingly big part of the Sabres' success—even as a rookie.

As the year has progressed and his role has increased, Quinn has faced higher and higher quality competition and yet still continues to drive play. Although many of his underlying stats suggest slight regression, his 16.7% shooting percentage is not unsustainably high for a sniper of his calibre. When he regularly gets an extra three or four minutes per night and starts more than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone (currently 47%), look out. If you already own Quinn, congratulations. If you don't, tough luck.

Rounding out the top five in P/60 are Cole Perfetti and Fabian Zetterlund. Important update for Zetterlund owners: he has recently been taken off of Hischier's line and played last game with Miles Wood and Michael McLeod. If he cannot stick in the top six, his value will be limited moving forward. The first thing that brought him onto my radar this year was his consistently high shot totals. He boasts the second highest Shots Per 60 (S/60) rate among rookies right now with 9.4—trailing only Mason Shaw (MIN). If he is not playing with Hughes or Hischier, those shot and point totals will trail off sharply. His advanced stats show he drives play quite well and is regularly involved in the scoring, but that is a significant decrease in surrounding talent for the young Swede.

Perfetti, on the other hand, has been promoted to the top line alongside Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. That trio has gelled well and is receiving favourable deployment, starting nearly 60% of their shifts in the opposing zone. Perfetti is not currently on the top power-play unit, which should hold his point totals down somewhat, but his prominent role at evens is encouraging.

He is noticeable on the puck because of his poise and patience. He always seems to hang onto it a second or two longer until a seam opens up or he can change the angle on a goaltender to dramatically increase the danger of his scoring chance.

Bold prediction: Cole Perfetti will score many, many, many goals like this in the future 🔥 pic.twitter.com/JLnH9LSw2K

— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) December 10, 2022

Hits Per 60

By far the best option for hits among rookies this year is Vegas' Paul Cotter. He began receiving more minutes in December (roughly 15 minutes a game, up from below ten) and even featured last game on a line with Mark Stone and Jack Eichel. On the year, he boasts 15.5 Hits/60 and that number seems to be heading straight up: over his last four games, Cotter has 19 hits (almost five per game). He won't help you much on the scoresheet but does score every now and then and his Shots/60 (7.3) are actually decent. If he can stick on the top line for a sustained stretch and continue earning more ice time, Cotter could be a sneaky add if you need a consistent boost in hits.

Mason Shaw (MIN) has emerged this year as a reliable source of decent points, shots, and hits. He has provided better category coverage than almost any other rookie forward. Shaw plays a depth role with limited minutes and opportunity on a checking line with Ryan Reaves and Connor Dewar. He is on a cheap, one-year deal, and the Wild will likely be able to lock him up for another few years relatively cheaply. Given their well-documented cap struggles over the next few years until the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter contracts run their course, spunky depth options like Shaw will be a valuable piece of the puzzle.

Although his limited production will keep his ceiling fairly low in fantasy for now, Shaw does have an established history as a producer dating back to junior. He popped 94 points in 71 WHL games in his Draft year, for instance—which is comparable to what Matt Savoie accomplished ahead of the 2022 Draft—and scored 52 points in 62 games last year in the AHL. If he could boost his production slightly up to a 50-point pace, which could happen with slightly better linemates and opportunity, he could provide 50 points on top of 100 PIMS, 150 shots, and 150 hits. That can definitely help teams out in the right format.

Power Play Points Per Sixty

Tied at the top of the man advantage category with 1.4 PPP/60 are Matias Maccelli and Calen Addison. Following them in order are Quinn and Dylan Guenther (ARI) with 1.2, Mason McTavish (ANA) with 0.9, and Kent Johnson (CBJ) with 0.8.

Addison is cruising along at a 46-point pace as a rookie defenceman right now largely on the strength of his 10 power-play points. The 22-year-old made the team and was immediately given almost 75% of the available power play time on the back end. That is an impressive vote of confidence from the Wild and a clear glimpse of things to come. I have a strong feeling that Addison will be running this power play indefinitely. His chemistry with Kirill Kaprizov on the point has been a beautiful thing to behold.

Watch how he drives in from the point and puts a dangerous shot on net that leads to a Wild goal. He has that killer instinct for the net that not all players have. Just wait until he hones those instincts further with more experience at the highest level.

Joel Eriksson Ek ties the game on the power play 3-3! 2 point game for Calen Addison with the assist #mnwild pic.twitter.com/i2o0VhNeQI

— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) December 3, 2022

An interesting wrinkle in the short term, however: Addison was a healthy scratch last game against Edmonton.

Dean Evason said Calen Addison will be a healthy scratch. They had a good talk before it. Said it'll be a wake-up call for young defenseman who has been good offensively. "He needs to defend better."

— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithNHL) December 9, 2022

His deployment in 2022-23 reminds me of how the Blues used Scott Perunovich in the playoffs last year when Torey Krug got injured: they gave him a comparable amount of PP time to what Addison is getting now but then played him very sparingly at even strength. It makes sense given both players' impressive offensive skill-sets and clear defensive proficiencies as young guys still adjusting to the speed and size of NHL attackers.

Wild fans want Addison on the ice but the data does back up Evason's decision. Addison is having a positive impact on his team from a sheltered role (19% Competition means he faces a fairly low quality of competition) but is lacking on the defensive side of things.

Defensive struggles are normal for 22-year-old offensive dynamos like Addison. He should be back in the lineup shortly and continue to keep things interesting in the race for the Calder. Fellow rookie defenders Jake Sanderson (OTT), Owen Power (BUF), and Kaiden Guhle (MON) are all playing key roles for their respective teams as well but are more well-rounded and minute-munching types. All of them lag far behind Addison at this point in terms of scoring with the man advantage.

Plus, like Beniers, Addison has the clearest path to a prominent scoring role moving forward. Sanderson has Thomas Chabot and Power has Rasmus Dahlin. Things are a bit more wide open in Montreal for Guhle, but he is probably the least PP-savvy of this bunch and has not really been used in that capacity this year for the Canadiens.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.