Released on Friday, January 13 – my 15th edition of the DobberHockey Midseason Guide! Pre-order it here.

No Nathan MacKinnon? No problem for 26-year-old Mikko Rantanen, who posted a hatty on Sunday – all three goals for the win. Rantanen's last two seasons saw an 82-game pace of 104 and 101 points and if you thought that was his peak, or that he was overachieving – think again. This year his pace is 114 points. He's in his prime and – knock on wood – his usual injuries haven't hit. If he can play 75 games like he did last season, Rantanen will enjoy his first 100-point season.

Valeri Nichushkin is back on the board with his first point since returning from injury on the ninth. Before getting hurt, the breakout player had 12 points in seven games. With no MacKinnon and no Gabriel Landeskog, Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen lined up with Rantanen. Lehkonen returned to the lineup and played over 20 minutes. Lehkonen's pace is for 64 points, but he should fall in around the low-50s.

After starting the season disappointing fantasy owners with just three points in 14 games, Alex Newhook has eight in his last 12. Newhook sits on 103 career games played and if you subscribe to our BT philosophy (Breakout Threshold), he will take that big step late in 2023-24.

Since October 21, Pavel Francouz has been every bit as good as Alexandar Georgiev, lending further credence to the idea that goalie results are driven by strength of team. Their SV% is close (0.922 for Francouz, 0.925 for Georgiev), their GAA is exactly the same at 2.58. Both sit just above 70% for QS% and both have a strong GSAA. But Francouz has a losing record, as the team hasn't been scoring in front of him as well as they do in front of Georgiev.

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The bottom three players in the entire league for the plus/minus stat are St. Louis players. Torey Krug (minus-23), Jordan Kyrou (minus-22) and Ryan O'Reilly (minus-21). O'Reilly is minus-12 in his last 10 games alone, with four of his last five games seeing minus-2 or lower. O'Reilly is seeing defensive zone starts and tough quality of competition, and he's still driving relative possession. However, Krug is the opposite. Massive sheltering. He sees by far the most offensive zone starts and the easiest quality of competition. Despite that, he somehow has been on the ice for 23 more goals against at even strength versus goals-for? Yikes.

To be fair, a lot of that…okay most of that is due to horrible, horrible goaltending. Combined, Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss have allowed almost 11 goals above average (GSAA).

Krug still has four more seasons after this one at a $6.5 AAV, but you have to wonder if he's Keith Yandling his way out of NHL relevance. You can't shelter a veteran this much and have such poor results. He's on pace for 36 points? He's taking offensive opportunities away from other players who could do more with them, and he's costing the team games. Useless defensively and, to be frank, he's been useless offensively.

Happy for Josh Leivo, who to me has been an NHL player for six years but had always been getting injured at the worst possible times. Now he's finally back as an NHL regular and he's thriving in all respects. He's hitting (career high 1.17 per game), he's producing (point every two games) and the fancy stats indicate that he's the strongest possession forward on the team even though he faces the toughest quality of competition and most offensive zone starts. He's playing with O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn.

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Jack Roslovic a four-point night
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/9RdNYO6TwI

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) December 12, 2022

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Roslovic now at eight points in six games. I've been saying since the summer to wait until December with this guy (and crossing my fingers that he didn't make me look bad), and so far he's been pulling through. The Blue Jackets have been splitting up Johnny Hockey and Patrik Laine, and that has been a boon for Roslovic owners, who now have him playing with Laine. Yegor Chinakhov is the other winger on that line.

It has also been a boon for Jenner. See what I did there? Boone Jenner remains alongside Johnny Gaudreau, with Gustav Nyquist is the other winger.

Columbus has also put together an exciting Kid Line, fitting Kirill Marchenko alongside Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson. Would love to see that line grow together, though I tend to believe that Marchenko has another stint in the minors ahead of him yet.

Marchenko did score his first NHL goal on Sunday though and has looked great so far:

A goal to remember 💥💥 pic.twitter.com/YwB1NWct9I

— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) December 11, 2022

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Drew Doughty is day-to-day with a lower-body injury and rather than seeing a bump in PP time for Sean Durzi, that PPTOI went to another Sean – Sean Walker. Walker saw 2:45 on the power play when his prior high in a game this season was 34 seconds back in October. Both Seans picked up an assist on Sunday.

Jonathan Quick continues to be really, really bad. He's given up 11 goals in his last two starts and his GSAA is now second worst in the league. His -13.30 GSAA is only behind Elvis Merzlikins (-15.71). So it's worth noting that Cal Petersen has been lights-out in the AHL. Here are Petersen's numbers in the AHL so far with the Ontario Reign:

4GP, 3-1-0, 2.01 GAA and 0.939 SV%

The situation is worth watching. The Kings will want to make sure he has his swagger back and then they will recall him and throw him straight in. Then they will hope he keeps his mojo so that they can start their playoff drive.

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Eric Staal has points in three straight and in five of his last six. This is interesting because he had zero points before that – but after taking a full season off it's to be expected that he has some rust. His ice time is now up over 17 minutes thanks to Anton Lundell being sidelined.

Prospect defenseman Matt Kiersted has three points in his last four games for the Panthers. He was an offensive defenseman at the college level, never drafted, but hasn't been able to replicate that offense in the AHL. But despite minimal ice time (below 10 minutes most games), Kiersted is on a bit of a heater. Until I see that ice time nudge upwards, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. But I'll be keeping an eye on him.

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With Darcy Kuemper sidelined, Charlie Lindgren has been filling in fairly well. Kuemper, who is back skating and is eligible to return Tuesday, has been out with an upper-body injury. Lindgren has posted four consecutive Quality Starts after struggling pretty badly playing sporadically. Some goalies (see Cal Petersen, above) just need a steady workload and can't come in cold and thrive.

Alex Ovechkin's last four goals, including Sunday's, have been empty netters. He is at 797 goals in his career. Gordie Howe is at 801 and Wayne Gretzky is at 894. Howe only had 12 empty netters in his entire career. Very strange coincidence that Ovechkin has so many ENG in a row like this. Ovechkin has 53 EN goals in his career, and Gretzky had 56.

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Josh Morrissey has points in 16 of his last 18 games and has 23 points in that span thanks to another assist Sunday. Still on pace for over 90 points and I have to think he reaches 70 (needs 39 in 55).

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There he is! You've probably been wondering why I've stubbornly kept Morgan Frost rather high in the Fantasy Prospect Rankings. His four-point game on Sunday was a long time coming. Too long? He's 23, and fantasy owners aren't known for their patience. However, injuries wiped out his first two pro seasons so let's cut the guy a little slack. Treat him like he's 21, because in development years he's exactly that. His ice time has been creeping upwards and as long as that trend continues, he's going to be that point-every-two-games guy this year. It is important to see him at least come close to 40 points this season, as it lays the groundwork for future upside. Similar to Newhook, Frost is at 105 career games played and so his breakout would happen (on our model) late next season. He showed great chemistry with James van Riemsdyk and Owen Tippett on Sunday.

Also with a four-point game, JVR is back up to a point-per-game. He missed the month of November, but now sits at nine points in nine contests.

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With another two assists Sunday, surprise Arizona defender JJ Moser now has 10 points in his last 15 games. Three of those have come on the power play. The 22-year-old is on pace for 47 points this season. While I think that's a little aggressive, I do see him surpassing 40. He's not even close to his prime, and he obviously has a future as a PP QB. He has taken to the North American game very quickly, so I wouldn't cap his long-term upside if I were you. Moser is making it easier for the organization to trade Jakob Chychrun.

Clayton Keller with the hat trick, including the OT winner on Sunday, gives him 76 points in his last 72 games.

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In the battle between two powerhouses, the Bruins topped Vegas 3-1. The Golden Knights are snakebitten offensively, especially with Jack Eichel out. We have a new tool that provides hot/cold teams for offense and defense (here) and Vegas is there for offense – just six goals scored in the last three games for this team.

Although Mark Stone scored, he hasn't been the same player this year. What's more – his points-per-game average has steadily declined, from 1.11 to 0.81 last year, and now 0.73 so far this season. The metrics don't indicate a market correction is on the way, either. Granted, Stone has had injury issues during that span. He also boasts a brilliant offensive mind, and sometimes that alone can pile up the points. But it's definitely concerning.

The Golden Knights are the third-highest scoring team in the NHL on the road. At home they are dead last.

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Sunday I completed the biggest trade in my fantasy hockey 'career', thought I would share it with you as food for thought. I am sitting in fourth but in range of first, and the person in third (practically tied with me) offered me a chance at the win if I would give him MacKinnon. I had owned MacKinnon for a good five years I think, or longer. This is a Keep 12 league with full rosters, benches, IR and minors, points-only that also gives a bit for PPPts, SOG and Hits. But keep only 12. Here is the trade:

I give:

Morgan Rielly, Nathan MacKinnon, Thatcher Demko, Damon Severson, Logan Stankoven, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Ivan Provorov, Ryan Strome, 1^st in '24, 2^nd in '23, 2^nd in '24, 4^th in '23.

I get:

Sebastian Aho, JT Miller, Tomas Hertl, Jacob Markstrom, Daniel Vladar, Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo, Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling, Jared McCann, Artturi Lehkonen, 8^th in '23, 8^th in '24.

This forced me to drop Ilya Mikheyev, Trevor Moore and Tomas Tatar.

This leaves me with:

C – Aho, Thompson, Miller, Hertl (with Zacha and Hayes and Copp)

W – Bratt, Fiala, Verhaeghe, Keller, McCann, Benn (with Berggren, Lehkonen, Labanc, Brink, Zary, Lekkerimaki)

D – Hedman, Carlson, Karlsson, Pietrangelo, Durzi, Hanifin (with Forsling, Burns, Morrow, Barron)

G – Hellebuyck, Markstrom (with Gustavsson, Vladar and Lehner)

'New' 12 Keepers: Aho, Thompson, Miller, Hertl, Bratt, Fiala, Keller, Carlson, Hedman, Karlsson, Hellebuyck, Markstrom the way things stand today, but I can see Gustavsson, Berggren, Hanifin and Durzi taking a run at a spot.

With me luck.

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See you next Monday.