Ramblings: Ovechkin Hits 800; Capitals Injuries; Shutouts Galore; Hyman; Dobson; & More (Dec 14)

Alexander MacLean

2022-12-14

The Washington Capitals look to be not far off from icing the healthiest lineup they've had all season. *knocks on wood*

Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom are skating, and both look to be somewhere between week-to-week and day-to-day. It could be that we see both back in the lineup by the New Year, and by then Darcy Kuemper and Martin Fehervary should be healthy as well. With a healthy roster Washington is a team that could very realistically push themselves back into a playoff spot. Now while Kuemper is hurt may be a good time to buy in on the 32-year-old, though if you do it might be prudent to see about adding backup Charlie Lindgren as well, seeing as he has four wins in his last four games – each of them quality starts. He has earned some more rope even when Kuemper returns.

I do take the blame for Lars Eller's day-to-day status, as I have written the above paragraphs before his injury was noted. Hopefully he's not out long. In the meantime, Aliaksei Protas jumps up to the third-line centre role in his place. There's likely not a ton of immediate fantasy relevance there, but on his right side will be Anthony Mantha who has four points in his last three games, and is quickly approaching his breakout threshold.

Mantha's two best seasons were point paces of 72-points (43 games), and 59 points (67 games). His issues have been consistency and health. If he can stay healthy the rest of the way, we could see him put up a point-per-game in the second half.

In the meantime, Alex Ovechkin scored a hat-trick last night and became the third player in history to reach 800 goals – he’s now one back of Gordie Howe. No big deal though, it’s just another night at the office for him. It feels like a when and not an if that he catches Gretzky's record.

In standard Yahoo league setups, Ovechkin is ranked #8. Is he ranked in your top-10 for re-draft leagues next year? I think he’ll be right around there on my list.

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Another game, another point for Mitch Marner. How far do we think he goes? It's looking like at least 30 with the hot stick he's wielding at the moment.

Linemate Michael Bunting has also been fantastic in that stretch,

Connor Timmins picked up three assists in last night's offensive outburst, which brought his career points total from eight to 11. While Timmins, Morgan Reilly, and Rasmus Sandin seem to be appreciating the Leafs' offence this year, Mark Giordano hasn't had the same impact on the scoresheet. His production is half of what it was last year, and his shots are down by a third. On top of that, his on-ice shooting percentage is the lowest it's been in his career. It doesn't help that he's seeing some of the higher defensive usage on the team. I have my eye on him in a couple of cap leagues due to his bargain contract, but Gio's floor is a lot lower this year than it has been in the past.

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Vegas turned to Adin Hill last night, marking the first time since October that Logan Thompson didn't get at least two starts in a row before Hill started again. If this is the sign of a slight adjustment in the share of the crease, then Hill's value could be in line for an increase as well. Even 35-40% of the starts for a team like Vegas would make him worthy of owning in a majority of leagues with his sparkling numbers so far this year (2.4GAA and .914sv%).

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There were a lot of shutouts last night. Sergei Bobrovsky has made the most of Spencer Knight missing time, but that just means it's probably time to sell high on him. Craig Anderson stopped 40 shots for the shutout, and unlike in Florida, he likely has a strong hold on the starter's job even when Eric Comrie comes back. Pyotr Kochetov is now up to two straight games of shutouts. When Frederik Anderson returns the lineup he will likely take a larger share of the starts. Kochetov has earned his right to stay in the NHL, which may push Annti Raanta elsewhere. The Leafs have the second-best overall save percentage in the league after a shutout from Ilya Samsonov. Him and Matt Murray are pushing each other well as long as they're healthy.

On the other side of the goalie spectrum, John Gibson allowed two goals last night and left the game after sustaining a lower body injury. It's unknown at this time how much time he will miss. Anthony Stolarz is also sidelined at the moment, so Lucas Dostal may see a run of starts. If you need volume, great. Otherwise steer clear for now.

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Leon Draisaitl had five points while Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid each scored four points. The Oilers have five players on the hot list, and it's the entire five-man power play unit. Nearly the entire rest of the roster is cold at the moment, and that's not really a surprise. Eventually though it will be time to sell high on Hyman, as Evander Kane will take his spot on the top unit. That's probably still at least a month or two away though.

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Noah Dobson scored a goal and an assist last night which puts him back on pace to pass his previous career high of 52 points which he set last season. If the team actually starts scoring more often while he's on the ice, then that pace might even increase over 60, and he still hasn't even hit the 200-game threshold.

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Dobson is also putting three shots on net per game, but his hits and blocks are down a little. That's likely a result of him seeing a more offensive role this year. With there not being another real threat for offensive deployment on the roster, or really even in the system, that should stick for the long run.

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Pending unrestricted free agent Bo Horvat released a statement regarding his contract status and role with the Vancouver Canucks moving forward.

https://twitter.com/alexdmaclean/status/1602772564853620740

As you can see, he's due for a solid raise, and it doesn't seem like there is going to be a fit for him in Vancouver as they sit on the outside of the playoffs once again this year. Horvat's is on pace to sail past his career high in points and goals this year. Surprisingly, his shooting percentage is the only underlying number that's at all out of place. What's interesting is that this is actually the first time in five seasons that Horvat isn't seeing an incredibly unlucky team shooting percentage while he is on the ice, and as a bonus he's starting the highest percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone in those last five years.

He may not be an 85-point player, but his average production the next three seasons is likely also above his previous career high of 64-points. Additionally, if Horvat does get traded, he may see his offensive zone time rise even higher, keeping his career season afloat if there is a statistical regression elsewhere.

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While I'm mentioning Horvat and his future contract, it's unfortunate for him and all of the other 2023 free agents, as it sounds like the NHL cap won't be going up by much.

This means we could see a few shorter deals this summer for a little less money. Players like Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Roope Hintz who locked in early are likely sitting in a better position than those who wait until the summer.

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Braden Point scored the goal of the night:

Rick Roos has some more on him in his weekly column dropping at 8:00am this morning.

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See you next Wednesday!

In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-12-14 at 08:41

    It is going to be very difficult for Mantha to break out given the quantity and quality of his ice time. If he can’t get PP time over the likes of Milano with Backstrom and Wilson out it isn’t getting better when they return although it may improve his ES linemates. I an argument can also be made that Mantha beat the curve and we saw his breakout in 18/19.

    You need 3 things to achieve my breakthrough targets and follow the math, pedigree, skill, and opportunity. Mantha may only be seeing 2 of these 3 and the math only holds 80% of the time.

    That said he has sustained injuries that have potentially delayed his breakthrough but I don’t believe unless Matha moves from Was next season it will occur, what you see is what you get. Was plays its 1st unit for as much of its PP time as possible and Ovechkin plays both units as does several other players like McDavid and Draisaitl. Very few teams do this but a few do.

    Nor do I think Mantha can achieve a point per game given this role, baring more significant injuries.

  2. Striker 2022-12-14 at 08:57

    It’s going to take 1 more year for the NHLPA to pay off their 50/50 share of HRR, as I have been saying for a very long time. Bettman had hinted at a 4 mil increase before the season started but the NHL is a gate-driven league and a great many teams who usually sell out, or very close to it are way down in attendance and many other markets aren’t selling out that historically do. The NHL is a gate-driven league, about 50% of revenue is derived from ticket sales, parking, and concession revenues. Fewer fans buying tickets and a bunch not using the tickets they have paid for still leaves the NHLPA at about 70 mil owing this summer. Thankfully that should be the last of the major burden Covid inflicted on the cap & in 23/24 and 24/25, it should rise by 4 mil per possibly more as Bettman spoke to in the summer.

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