The way Tim Stützle went into the boards in Monday's game against Anaheim seemed to portend very bad news. We have seen players break collarbones and separate shoulders on similar plays and that's something Sens fans and fantasy owners were worried about. Ottawa provided some very good news about Stützle on Wednesday, though:

Tim Stützle will be out at least a week with his injury.

The good news is he didn't suffer any structural damage in his shoulder. It's being listed as a contusion right now.

Appears the Sens may have dodged a bullet here.

— Ian Mendes (@ian_mendes) December 14, 2022

Depending on what they do, the young center could miss a decent chunk of games. Including Wednesday night's tilt against Montreal, Ottawa has six games in 10 days leading into the Christmas break. If he really can be back in a week, he could make the back-to-back at home to Washington and Detroit just before the league takes a few days off. If they want to give him those extra five days to rest, though, he could miss six contests. It does seem better than it looked at first glance, though.

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Staying with the Good News For Injured Players front, Pavel Buchnevich was back at practice for St. Louis on Wednesday:

Practice lines:
Saad-O'Reilly-Leivo
Buchnevich-Schenn-Tarasenko
Barbashev-Thomas-Kyrou
Toropchenko-Walker-Pitlick

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) December 14, 2022

The winger had missed four games though the team still managed to go 2-1-1 without him. He is on a point-per-game pace to start the year and hopefully this is the end of his injury woes.  

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Let’s make it three for three for good news.

It isn't the final step, but it's another big step in Max Pacioretty's recovery:

Pacioretty on the ice with no-contact jersey.

— Chip Alexander (@ice_chip) December 14, 2022

He has been out all year with a torn Achilles and had been skating on his own. Even though it's a non-contact jersey, being at practice with his teammates is a great sign for him. Maybe he really will be back in like a month rather than late February?

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Do I hear four for four?

Evan Rodrigues was back at practice for Colorado, skating in a normal jersey. The team provided this update after practice:

Evan Rodrigues is a possibility to play tomorrow. Nothing certain yet, Jared Bednar said. #Avs

— Bennett Durando (@BennettDurando) December 14, 2022

Whether it's Thursday night or shortly thereafter, the Avalanche look to be getting back another top-9 forward as the team gets healthy. They are currently in a playoff position despite all they've gone through. It is a scary thought for the rest of the West.

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Filip Hronek took a very hard hit from Minnesota's Ryan Reaves early in Detroit's 4-1 loss on Wednesday night. He left the game and did not return. He was having a great season with 24 points in 28 games but now his status is up in the air. Moritz Seider was running the top power play all game with Hronek out.

Mats Zuccarello scored once on four shots to keep his season over a point per game pace.

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Many teams in the NHL have reached or surpassed the one-third mark of the regular season. For fantasy owners in head-to-head leagues, there is likely three (or fewer) months left in your campaign and any moves made to make a push in the fantasy regular season need to start happening. That is what we're here for.

One stat that isn't kept but doesn't take much wrangling to figure out is market share. This is a concept I borrowed from fantasy football and in hockey parlance it's simply the percentage of shots an individual player takes of all the shots that are taken by his team when he's on the ice. It is one way to figure out who is really involved in the offence, from a shooting perspective, even if the player/team itself doesn't shoot a lot on the whole. It can portend an uptick in scoring or improved production should a trade to a new (real-life) team happen.

We are going to focus on forwards, it will be at all strengths, not just at 5-on-5 or even strength, and we are going to use shot attempts. Data from Natural Stat Trick and the TOI cut-off is at least 300 minutes this season (there are over 300 forwards that have reached this mark, or 9-10 per team).

For reference, the average market share is 21.7%, the median market share is 21.1%, and to be one standard deviation above average, a number over 25.8% is necessary. In other words, anything over 25.8% is great-to-elite.

The One-Third Club

In honour of reaching the one-third portion of the season, we'll honour the five forwards that are taking at least 33% of the shot attempts for their team when they're on the ice. Yes, 33% isn't quite one-third but there's 10 days until Christmas let's just go with it. The top three won't surprise anyone: David Pastrnak (36.9%), Tage Thompson (33.5%), and Alex Ovechkin (33.4%). We won't spend much time talking about these guys, but I will say Ovechkin has improved from 3.9 shots/game over the team's first 15 games to 4.8 per game over his last 16 games. Whether it's temporary or a new gear, his production is now very close to being in line with what he did last year. The resurgence is on.

The fourth name (fifth on the list) might be a surprise, or it might not be, and it's Cole Caufield at 33.1%. The reason it may be a surprise is that he's sitting at 3.4 shots per game, considerably lower than the three names in the preceding paragraph. That speaks to how little the Habs generate in terms of volume. It is a great sign for Caufield, though, who really does seem to be turning into a superstar.

The fifth name, coming in just ahead of Caufield, is one we would not expect: Oliver Wahlstrom at 33.2%. Like Caufield, it's a function of him shooting a lot, ranking 16^th in shot attempt rate among the 304 forwards, but the Islanders not generating a high rate of shot attempts when he's on the ice. It is funny to see him among names like this considering he's on pace for just 20 goals and 39 points, but 12 minutes a game will do that to a player.

It should be noted he has trouble generating quality. His expected goal market share is under 30%, the only player in the top-10 of shot attempt market share to be below 30% in expected goal market share. He has just 155 regular season games to his name – as of Wednesday afternoon – but is shooting under 10%. That is a bit concerning.

All that aside, it seems Wahlstrom has another gear he could hit with a couple tweaks to his game (and deployment) and dynasty owners should probably hang on here. For single-season fantasy owners, I doubt he starts earning more ice time so trading for him isn't recommended.

The 30-Plus People

Aside from the five players named already, there are nine others that are above 30%. Some of those names are players we'd expect:

• Timo Meier (32.9%)
• Brendan Gallagher (32.3% and remember, the Habs don't generate a lot)
• Jonathan Marchessault (31.9%; only plays with Jack Eichel on the power play)
• Auston Matthews (31.1%)
• Patrick Kane (30.6% and the same issue as Caufield/Gallagher)

That leaves us with four names that could be more surprising.

First is Jordan Kyrou (31.1%). It is kind of the same problem as the Montreal guys in that St. Louis isn't generating a lot anyway, but Kyrou has seen a huge shot increase this year. His shots per game are up 0.8 from last year which has kept him nearly on pace for 30 goals despite a sizable drop in shooting percentage. If he can maintain this shot rate and climb to his three-year shooting percentage (13.8%), Kyrou could score 25 goals over the rest of the campaign. It's probably too late to buy low on him so if you did, there could be a lot of goodness to come.

Next is another guy not getting much ice time in William Carrier (30.7%). He's often used as a pseudo third liner for Vegas and that, without top PP time, means fantasy irrelevance outside of deeper banger leagues. He is someone I've been clamouring to see more ice time from for a couple years now. He has the same 5-on-5 goal rate over the last three seasons as Jesper Bratt and Adrian Kempe. Will he get more TOI? Doubtful!

After Carrier is someone who signed with a new team and things are not going well! Frank Vatrano is taking 30.6% of the shot attempts for the Ducks when he's on the ice as he's not often skating with Troy Terry. He is also shooting 4.3% against a three-year average of 10.8%. He will probably improve on that regard but without top PP time and staying away from the top-end forward talent, I'm not sure how much more fantasy value he'll have. He could be a decent depth piece in banger leagues if that shooting percentage can regress enough.

The last name over 30% is Los Angeles's Arthur Kaliyev at 30.3%. He has spent most of the season in the bottom-6 for the Kings but has found himself on the top line of late. He has just one point in five games since the move, though, so how much longer this lasts is uncertain. Like Wahlstrom, Kaliyev needs to round his offensive game a bit more, but the pieces are coming together.

The Rest of the Great

To finish, we'll look at some players that are at or above the 25.8% mark. We will ignore the obvious names like Nathan MacKinnon, Kirill Kaprizov, Jason Robertson, Elias Pettersson, Steven Stamkos, and so on.

Victor Olofsson is just shy of the 30% mark, so he's been excellent in this regard. With the performances of some of the top stars on this roster, perhaps it's getting a bit lost that Olofsson is on pace for 37 goals. He is shooting 20% and when that declines, he'll need to pick up his shot rate but given the excellent play of the top two lines, it's unlikely he earns more ice time. That makes a shots/game rise unlikely. If possible, now might be the time to sell high on him.

We have a pair of Flyers forwards with market shares over 27%: Owen Tippett at 27.2% and Travis Konecny just behind him with 27.1%. Tippett's calling card has always been his shot and he's on pace to finish near 25 goals if he can stay in the lineup and maintain his current shot rates/percentages. Not a tremendous season, mind you, but he hits a lot and that matters for banger leagues. It might be worth it for dynasty owners to check in and see what the cost is to acquire him.

As for Konecny, it feels weird to say a guy who had three 24-goal seasons by the end of his age-22 season is finally breaking out, but it seems as if that's the case. The winger is up to 3.2 shots per game, by far a career high, helped along by playing 20 minutes a night. His scoring chance contributions at 5-on-5 this season, per Corey Sznajder's tracking data, is in line with names like Kyrou and Leon Draisaitl. He has truly found another level in his process/production and that is a great sign for both the Flyers and fantasy owners. He could be one of the big breakout performers of 2022-23.

Next is Dominik Kubalik. After being dumped by the Blackhawks, he has replied with 10 goals and 25 points in 28 games (as of Wednesday afternoon). He is up to 2.8 shots per game and already has a career-high in power-play goals with five. He leads the Red Wings in shot attempts taken per minute and is in the 88^th percentile of all forwards. I am still wary of his overall fantasy value – nearly half his points have come on the power play, so what if he loses that role? – but considering the negligible investment fantasy owners had to make this year, he's been a big success.

The last guy to touch on is Matt Boldy. It is very much worth noting that 57% (!) of his points have come on the power play this year. Should he ever lose that role – which, to be fair, is very unlikely – there could be a lot of production issues. With that said, he's sitting at three shots per game which is a nice sign in his second season. But, again, the 5-on-5 production has been bad and until he gets more help, it'll be hard for him to take another step in the fantasy game. It should be noted that Mats Zuccarello has just one year left on his deal so maybe Boldy/Kaprizov will be a thing in a couple years? It is a long time to wait for dynasty owners.

Next week, we'll look at expected goal shares and what names overlap (or don't).