Tuesday Game Picks: Brady Keeps Shooting; Expect Goals in Los Angeles

Will McLean

2022-12-20

We are back with another Tuesday edition of Game Picks, where we give out a Gold, Silver, and Bronze selection every Tuesday during the NHL season. We have been gifted eight really good NHL games for tonight, which should give us plenty of betting options. I've done my best to research every game and I think I have found some winners. The three games I'll be keeping my eyes on tonight are the Anaheim Ducks @ Los Angeles Kings, Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks, and the Ottawa Senators @ Winnipeg Jets. Hopefully, Santa can give us some good luck as an early Christmas present and help us sweep the board tonight.

Below I highlight my Gold, Silver, and Bronze selections for tonight's games. Last Tuesday was an embarrassing day that saw me go (0 – 3), bringing my season record to (11 – 13).

Gold Selection

Ottawa Senators @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 Shots (-133)

Brady Tkachuk has basically been a lock this season with this bet, which means I have to continue to ride the hot hand. Tkachuk has been averaging 4.42 shots per game this season and, while playing on the road, that average goes up to 4.8 shots per game. He's also been averaging 6.97 shot attempts per game this year, but over his last 10 games, he has been averaging 7.5 shot attempts per game. He has recorded four or more shots in eight of his last 10 games, 17 of 20, and in nine straight road games. With how good Tkachuk has been this season, and how consistent he has been with his shot output, this bet is a no-brainer for me.

Silver Selection

Anaheim Ducks @ Los Angeles Kings – Pick: Over 5.5 (-165)

This bet is pretty simple: both these teams get scored on a lot, so I'm betting the over. The Ducks average 4.16 goals against per game, the most in the NHL, while the Kings average 3.59 goals against per game, the sixth-most in the NHL.  Over their last 10 games, the Ducks have been averaging four goals against per game, whereas the Kings have stayed about the same. A big reason why these two teams get scored on so much is their terrible penalty kills. The Kings penalty kill is currently running at 70.9%, the fifth worst in the NHL, while the Ducks penalty kill is at 67.2%, the second worst in the league. I expect to see a lot of goals tonight as these two teams continue to struggle defensively.

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Bronze Selection

Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Over 1.5 First Period Goals (-125)

The Flames and the Sharks are both in the top 10 in the NHL for first period goals. The Flames have scored 36 first period goals in 32 games, averaging 1.13 per game, while the Sharks have scored 32 in 33 games, averaging 0.97 per game. Flames games are averaging 2.22 total first period goals this season, and Sharks games are averaging 1.85 total first period goals. Six of the Sharks last seven games have had two or more goals in the first period, and seven of the Flames last nine games have had two or more goals in the first period. With how often these two teams have been winning this bet recently, and how high their first period averages are, I am confident they will get us the win tonight.

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