Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 10 team H2H League (4 keepers – at least 1 must be a D-man or Goalie) starting 2C, 2L, 2R, 1U, 3D, 2G, plus 6 Bench, 3IR (Daily) (5 moves per week – 100 max) with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM, HITS, BS, GWG, SOG, and goalie categories of Wins, Saves, S%, GAA (Min. 4 starts), a GM is frustrated with Elias Lindholm and is thinking of dropping him for Dylan Cozens or Matty Beniers. Should they stand pat or ditch Lindholm?

At the outset, when this was posted Cozens and Beniers were already two of the hotter players in the entire league; so the fact they were still available even then is a testament to this league being on the shallow side. As such, I'm more inclined to make moves and go with hot hands. Yes, even with a 100 total moves cap, I still think that strategy is one I'd adopt.

But does Lindholm merit tossing into the FA pile? Last season was one for the ages for his line, although of the Calgary trio Lindholm reaped the fewest benefits despite a career high SH%. Where he fell short is PPPts, as he tallied not even one per every four contests. In his second-best season that saw him score at a 79 point pace, he had 26 PPPts in 81 games for a rate of just under one per three games. This from a player who, in all his 70+ game seasons, and so far for 2022-23, has been generally closer to the same PPPt per every four contests rate.

Something to keep in mind is Lindholm has never seen his IPP, either overall or on the PP, crack the 70% mark, suggesting he's not a driver of offense, especially given that, at age 28, he's peaked or peaking. His PP IPP this season and last have been 53.3% or less. Although I might be able to look past a single campaign of that occurring, one season plus more than the first third of 2022-23 is starting to look like a trend you don't want to see if you own Lindholm, especially given his subpar PP outputs of the past. Yet another change from 2022-23 that poolies likely are not happy to see is his SOG rate down from 2.9 per game to 2.4, which by itself is concerning but is even more so when coupled with his SH% at 12.3%, which, although fine, would mark a five season low. Still, both seemingly have nowhere to go but up.

I see Lindholm as a ~70-75 point player, which, in this league, would make him someone who should be owned. The safe play would be to hold and bank on him doing better; but Berniers is a tempting add (more so, in my opinion, than Cozens, whose spot on PP1 and even as second line center are not as set in stone as Berniers' on the first unit at ES and on the PP), especially given what I dug up in my Goldipucks column last week. It's a close call, but in the end I think dropping Lindholm for Berniers would be the right move more often than not.

Topic #2 – In a league that counts W, L, GA, SV, SHO league, a GM owns Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tristan Jarry and Linus Ullmark. If rest of the season stats are all that matter, should they drop Ullmark for Marc-Andre Fleury?

The first factor in making the decision is assessing the categories. All basically reward volume. Yes, a goalie who plays a lot will get Ls and GAs; however, those come with the territory if one is trying to accumulate W, SV and SO. Vas and Jarry are proven workhorses. Yes, both did not look like their usual selves in Q1; however, Vas is still a superb goalie until/unless he is subpar for an entire season, and Jarry has had rough patches before but the team tends to stick with him through thick and thin, plus both seem to be rounding back into form.

Why does all this matter? Because Ullmark figures to get fewer starts than Fleury over the rest of the season, as Boston has Jeremy Swayman while Minnesota has Filip Gustavsson. Yes, the two current backups are nearly the same age; however, Swayman has more games under his belt, including in the 2022 playoffs.

Fleury has almost always been a workhorse and unquestioned starter, except for the brief period of Matt Murray's early time as a Pen; and I don't see that changing for 2022-23. Maybe in 2023-24, which will be Fleury's last season on his deal, the Wild might prime Gustavsson to take over in 2024-25; but for now it's Fleury's net. In Boston, as great as Ullmark has played, a lot of that was when Swayman was injured, and Boston won't want to tax Ullmark too much and have him worn out come playoff time. The end result should be Ullmark getting 60% of starts versus 40% for Swayman, whereas I see Fleury starting 70%+ of the games for Minny.

The magic question thus becomes whether Ullmark can continue doing what he's doing, or at least something close to it. Boston is playing for a new coach and gelling as a team. And if we look at Ullmark, this is a guy whose GSAA had risen the past two seasons and was double digits in 2021-22 despite under a 50% QS%. He was always a very good goalie looking for a foothold to show his stuff, and – no jinx! – not get injured.

One concern, however, is at this stage of 2021-22 Jack Campbell, Jacob Markstrom (more on him in a later question) and Thatcher Demko all looked like world-beaters. Then they came back to earth quite a bit. It is a risk that Ullmark is peaking early, especially given Swayman would be there to step in should Ullmark does falter significantly.

This is a tough call. If the starting volume was needed I'd say Fleury without much hesitation. But given Ullmark's trajectory and how well Boston has done under Jim Montgomery, I think I'd stick with him and hope he maintains his strong play.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, 2C, 2LW 4D, 2G, 4 Bench league with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT and goalie categories of W, GAA, SV%, SHO, how do the following defensemen rank for the rest of the season: Tony DeAngelo, MacKenzie Weegar, Bowen Byram, Ivan Provorov?

Suffice it to say, all of these guys have warts of some sort. With DeAngelo and Provorov it's their team, plus, in the case of Provorov, him being pigeonholed as more of a defense-first guy, while with DeAngelo it's that he's historically been either great or terrible, with no real middle ground. As for Byram, he's injury-prone plus unless Colorado trades away a defenseman he's unlikely to get much if any PP time. Weegar was able to succeed in Florida without man advantage minutes; however, in Calgary he's looked like the guy he was before he came from out of nowhere in 2020-21.

One key here is BLKs don't count. That cuts against Provorov and Weegar's value more so than the other two. I also can't ignore that Weegar's superb play came for a superb team, such that it has a rising tiding lifting all boats factor; plus he was doing so well when he just so happened to be playing for a new contract. With that fat deal now in his back pocket, lo and behold his stats have nosedived. To me, he's not the pick.

I can't take Provorov either. He is what he is at this point given his deployment, and that's a guy who'll score nearly a point per every other game and shoots a bit plus Hits, but offers little in the way of 2022-23 upside. It's a shame too, since you can sense that the talent is still there; but much like what happened with Ryan Pulock in New York and to some extent Darnell Nurse in Edmonton, deployment is holding him back, and that deployment isn't due to change before this season is done.

It boils down to Byram versus DeAngelo. If he wasn't a band-aid-boy trainee, Byram likely would be the pick given that he produced at a 46-point pace as a rookie and before he got hurt this season was seeing 2:00 more ice time per game, which could only help his scoring. But he is not superb in Hits, and shoots very little.

As noted above, DeAngelo is perhaps the biggest feast or famine risk in today's NHL. When he cares and is in a great situation, he excels. When he's not though – well, we all remember what happened in New York in 2020-21, and that wasn't with hard-nosed John Tortorella as coach. Still though, for at least the time being DeAngelo is being put out there in a manner that should lead to scoring, and his SOG rate hasn't cratered. Plus, his Hits are barely worse than Byram's. In the end, I think I'd have to go with DeAngelo and hope for the best. Byram would be the pick if he wasn't so darn injury prone; but until he can prove he can withstand the rigors of the NHL without getting hurt, he's too much of a risk, so I've got DeAngelo here. Am I thrilled? No, but let's just call him the lesser of four evils in this case.

Topic #4 – In a 12 team, points only (D even strength points worth 1.25, PP = 1.75; Forward even strength worth 1, PP = 1.5) league where nine can be kept at any position, plus seven prospects, a team has this roster:

F: Andrei Svechnikov, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Dylan Strome, Juuso Parssinen, Jonathan Toews, Jesse Puljujarvi, Owen Tippett, William Karlsson, Gustav Nyquist

D: Evan Bouchard, Calen Addison, Nile Lundkvist, Kaiden Guhle, Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Pulock

G: Cal Petersen, Pavel Francouz, Adin Hill

IR: Zach Werenski

Prospects: Wyatt Johnston, Matt Coronato, Kent Johnson, Logan Stankoven, Logan Cooley, Lukas Reichel, Kevin Korchinski

Should the team bank on Eriksson Ek being a likely keeper?

Surefire keepers are Svechnikov, Suzuki, Caufield, Boldy, Bouchard, Werenski, and Addison. That's only six of a total of nine, so Eriksson Ek certainly is in the conversation.

There's seemingly a lot to like about Eriksson Ek, as his points per game has risen each of the last four seasons and is on pace to do so again. His SOG rate this season thus far would be nearly double what it was just three seasons ago. He also seems to have a locked in spot on PP1, likely due to his faceoff acumen. Plus, the Wild are under a cap handcuff for two more seasons, such that Eriksson Ek is unlikely to be pushed aside by a big name free agent.

The issue though is his IPPs are lousy, with his overall IPP having been over 60% in just one prior season and it isn't thus far for 2022-23. On the PP it's worse in that he hasn't even had a 50% PP IPP in the past two seasons plus he's not on pace for that in 2022-23. Beyond that, his OZ% for 2022-23 is a paltry 36.9%. Only 49 other forwards have played 20+ games and sport a lower OZ% than Eriksson Ek's, with a mere two– Jeff Carter and Jean-Gabriel Pageau – having a scoring rate of better than even a point per every other game, and they barely clear the threshold. And with Eriksson Ek flirting with a 70 point pace, clearly he's overachieving in view of his deployment.

Yes, Eriksson Ek seems to have an ironclad spot on PP1 and is on an upward scoring trend; however, I don't care how skilled a player is, with an OZ% that low and IPPs as lousy as his have been and continue to be, he can't remain on this pace. That having been said, he probably would make the cut as a keeper for this team given its other options. What I'd do is try to sell high on him, turning him into a player who has a better chance at being a 70-point guy than Eriksson Ek. Or he could be packaged with a goalie and prospect to try and improve the team's situation in net, where it's very weak. In fact, with goaltending this poor and a tough time even landing on nine keepers, I wonder if it would be best for this team to embark upon a rebuild, and trading Erikisson Ek would still be something I'd do even if that became the plan, although perhaps not including a prospect in that case.

Topic #5 – Which goalie will be the best own over the rest of the season: Vitek Vanecek, Jacob Markstrom, or Logan Thompson?

Categories weren't specified in the thread, but the person who started the thread asked who'd be the best starter, so I'll take it that wins and volume-based starts matter most. It was clear that for purposes of the question only this season matters.

Thompson concerns me. Just one time – back in juniors – did he log more than 40 games in a season, so his risk of hitting a wall is very real. Let's also not forget he is waiver exempt, such that if he does play poorly Vegas could bury him in the AHL without a risk of losing him to another team. Yes, that seems farfetched given how he's played and the cap, but it can't be entirely overlooked. I'm also concerned that although Thompson has yet to have a really bad start, he's only at 52.4% in terms of quality start percentage. You have to wonder if he's the one making his team better or if it's more a case of the team propping him up. Also, it is notable that since the second quarter of the season started Thompson's numbers are a whole lot worse. While very few goalies don't see ups and downs during the course of an 82-game campaign, it is worrisome that perhaps he was strong out of the gate but now teams are starting to figure him out based on scouting reports.

The question of goalie or team also has to be raised with Vanecek. He was a decent but far from great goalie last season with the Caps. For 2022-23 thus far though, he's fared much better. But he's had one really bad start per every four games played, although on the other hand his QS% is 60%, yet also his GSAA puts him barely in the top-25 among netminders. Something about Vanecek that also should not be overlooked though is New Jersey's other goalie, when healthy, is MacKenzie Blackwood, who likely is at best a 1B at this point, and probably closer to a pure back-up given his lackluster play. Vanecek should be the starter for the rest of 2022-23, although his games played past resembles Thompson in that he's never played even 41 games in any season, so he could hit a wall. We also can't ignore that after looking like world-beaters for a while, New Jersey has fared worse of late.

Markstrom entered 2022-23 as arguably a Tier 1 netminder, but he's faltered lately in a big way. Looking back, last season he was red hot, ice cold, red hot again, before having a decent but not great Q4. His Quality Start % is a woeful 33.3%, after having been 53.5%+ each of the past four seasons, although he only has three really bad starts in 21 games. Still, as we've seen with goalies like Connor Hellebuyck and Sergei Bobrovsky, when very good goalies go bad, they can often stay bad all season. Banking on Markstrom rebounding isn't a surefire proposition.

Who then is the best choice? Usually in fantasy hockey you place bets on contracts, which would mean Markstrom. Although Calgary, at least for the moment, seems content to play Dan Vladar more than was envisioned, I can't see a universe in which he becomes a 1A let alone the actual starter. If they give Markstrom continued chances, who's to say he'll be able to turn things around? Then again, who's to say Thompson or Vanecek can continue playing well to an unprecedented extent, especially not having logged high games played volume in the past.

The risk/reward pick is Markstrom, while Vanecek is likely the safer pick, and Thompson is the one I think is the odd man out. If it were me, I'd probably pick Vanecek and hope he can keep up a strong pace and not tire out. Markstrom is a defensible choice as well.

Topic #6 – In a one year ten team league with 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4 D, 1U, 2G, 5 Bench, 2 IR and skater categories of Skaters: G(5), A(3), SOG(0.2), HIT(0.25), BLK(0.25), DEF(1.14), FOW/L(0.2), PPG(0.5), PPA(0.25), SHG(1), SHA(0.5), PIM (-0.5), a team has, as its defensemen, Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, Miro Heiskanen, Moritz Seider, Justin Faulk and, as of when the thread was posted, Alex Pietrangelo on IR. Who should be dropped when Pietrangelo returns?

Let's start with who it won't be, and that's easy – Hughes, McAvoy or Heiskanen. All three are locked in top guys on their teams, getting heaps of PP time and producing. Who, then, is the odd man out among the others?

Faulk started with nine points in his first seven games, meaning he's merely equaled that total in his next 24 contests. Also, he has never strung together two solid seasons in a row, plus is not heavily utilized on the PP. Still, he is very good in multicats, especially with his SOG rising and hits and blocks steady as ever.

Pietrangelo has thrived under Bruce Cassidy; however, he is more of a complete defenseman than Shea Theodore, so there is always a risk he gets deployed in a less offensively favorable manner. But also his floor is higher than Seider's or Faulk's, even if he's not great in multi-cat.

Seider was thriving this time last year; however, so far in Detroit it's been the Filip Hronek show. There looked to be an opening for Seider when Hronek seemingly got hurt; but he's already back and hasn't lost a step. Still, Hronek has never done anything like this in the past and Seider being a golden boy of sorts does provide realistic hope of Seider being positioned to succeed as he did last season. Seider is also closer to Faulk in terms of multicat prowess than Pietrangelo.

This is a tough one, as Faulk looks to be falling off a cliff offensively; but Seider has sophomore slump written all over him, as he's barely shooting the puck let alone finding ways to hit the score sheet. Still, banked points don't matter when it comes to the rest of this season. I think Pietrangelo definitely should not be the drop, as he seems to be looked upon favorably by Cassidy and has the highest floor, despite weaker multi-cat stats. As for Seider versus Faulk, I'm not a believer in Faulk, who, even thriving last season, barely out-produced Seider. Still, Faulk is starting 64% of his shifts in the offensive zone, versus 41.9% for Seider. Honestly, I wish there was a fourth choice, as I really dislike the prospects for both. In the end I have to go with Faulk due to his OZ% and Seider's seemingly lost season, making Seider the drop.

Topic #7 – In a points only league which is a keeper but where this season's stats are most important and forward positions don't matter, how do these three forwards rank: Zach Hyman, Matt Duchene, Tyler Toffoli?

Yes, as of right now Hyman is far out-producing Duchene and Toffoli, but again, banked points do not matter. Of the trio, I'd say Duchene is most locked into the best spot, in that I don't see a universe where he skates outside the top six and is off PP1. On the other hand, Hyman, although not assured a spot on PP1, will be alongside one or both of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Meanwhile, Toffoli, is still firing pucks on net left and right and seeing PP1 minutes.

Speaking of shooting, Duchene is well below his career SH% yet not shooting more than usual; so chances are he sees a boost in the normal course. On the other hand, Toffoli is at his normal SH% but is shooting more; so it's less clear he can keep doing what he's doing, while Hyman's SOG have spiked but it's not had a detrimental effect on his SH%, which gives me concerns he's on an unsustainable run.

Also, Hyman faded in 2021-22 after he emerged with 13 points in 14 games. Yes, Evander Kane is out of the picture for now and Hyman's poorest results last season came after Kane arrived; however, when counting his last two seasons in Toronto and his first in Edmonton, Hyman has ended up in the 58- to 63-point range. Until he can prove he's capable of more, we have to consider his strong start to be just that, and not bank on it continuing. Plus, as great as it is to would seem to be to play alongside McDavid and Draisaitl, no Oiler winger in the McDavid era has finished a season with 60+ games and a 0.8+ points per game pace, which to me is a pretty big deal.

As for Toffoli, he's never been a 70-point player, although in fairness he logged many of those seasons for a defense-first Kings team. Still, in a season where he's played 70+ games he's yet to tally 60+ points. He's also 30 years old now and not even playing 17 minutes a night. I see him doing fine for Calgary, but his spot on PP1 is not set in stone and his past results indicate that it's unlikely that he'll finish a season much – if at all – better than in past campaigns.

That leaves Duchene. For most of his career a pattern had emerged where he'd never fare very well except if he happened to be playing for a new contract. Well last season he proved he was capable of putting up great numbers without a looming payday, and this season although he's not continued where he left off, that's due to his unsustainably low SH% plus Nashville's offense coming back to earth somewhat. Still, as I noted, he is a focal point player and he seems to be putting in the effort to succeed. Given these factors, I like him best of the three, or at least he is the safest, most logical pick from where I sit when talking about the remainder of the season.

Topic #8 – In a 16 team dynasty H2H points league where two goalies start and with goalie categories and weighting as follows: W(4), L(-2), SO(4), SV(0.2), GA(-1), who is the better own: Ville Husso or Alexandar Georgiev?

On paper there are a lot of similarities, as both are starters for the first time in their career and each is signed for two more seasons under their current contract, after which they both become UFAs. Husso makes a bit more money now, but also is a year older, although both should be able to play at the top of their game for at least another 5+ seasons. And Georgiev being paid less would normally be a worry; however, with the Avs not having a lot of cap room to play with and given what they gave up to get Georgiev, it's clear they want him to be "the guy."

Who, then, is better? Georgiev has looked interchangeably great and mediocre. The Avs feel they don't need a world beater in net, or at least that's what they think now. Who's to say how it will go for them in the playoffs however, where Georgiev has a grand total of two games experience in his career, although Husso only has seven and fared poorly in them.

When it comes to Georgiev, I can't help but dwell on the fact that in his entire career to date, he's never – not even once – had a Quality Start Percentage over 50%. Yes, the Rangers were not great most of the time he was there. But still, not even one season of a QS% over 50% is telling, or at least it is to me. Perhaps it does hold weight, as looking at other goalies who, like Georgiev, played 10+ games in each of their first five seasons, those with at least four with a QS% of 50% or lower dating back to 2000-01 were Anders Nilsson, Jonas Gustavsson, and Steve Mason. That is not a list of goalies with whom you want to share a common statistic.

As for Husso, he too has looked great at times, but also lousy, as although he's tied for the league lead in Shutouts, his Really Bad Start rate is 23.8%. Still, he's doing this for a Detroit team that is still finding its footing. When Husso has a Really Bad Start, it can be really, really bad, as he had a game where he coughed up eight and three where he surrendered five. On the other hand, he has also had five games where he only gave up one goal, which is two more than his instances of two goals allowed. To me that paints the picture of a goalie settling into his role and on a team that is going to leave him out to dry from time to time, which is less apt to occur in Colorado.

I see Husso as the "better" goalie. Georgiev, despite his ups and downs, has not yielded the net to Pavel Francouz, who has shown flashes of strong play but also choked in the playoffs and has had inopportune injuries. I think they're close enough that the choice needs to be based on near term versus long term results, meaning that if competing over the next two seasons is the goal, then it's difficult not to take Georgiev. Beyond that I like Husso. If one has an appetite for risk, I'd say Husso might be the near term pick, what Georgiev's lousy comparables and Husso seemingly coming into his own more.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

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