Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. This week, we will take a look at some players excelling down in the AHL. Success in the minors can be an excellent indicator that a prospect is ready for hockey's biggest stage. The sample size is still limited for some of these players, but now that the 72-game AHL season is about a third complete, the leaders of this year's rookie class are beginning to emerge.

Off the top of your head, who is leading AHL rookies in scoring this year?

If you said Sammy Walker (MIN), you were right but probably cheated. Walker has 23 points in 22 games to pace all first-year scorers but is anything but a household name.

After getting drafted out of high school in the seventh round back in 2017, Walker followed a somewhat unusual development path to reach his current heights: he returned to the high school circuit for his Draft+1 year, which is strange to see from an NHL-bound prospect, and then completed a full four-year college career with the University of Minnesota (112 points in 144 games). Now he has finally made the jump to pro hockey and is excelling to the point that he earned a brief four-game call up earlier this month.

Moving forward, if Walker can take the next step and stick with the Wild full time in the next year or two, he will join recent Iowa (AHL) alumni Mason Shaw, Connor Dewar, and Brandon Duhaime in injecting some speed and physicality into Minnesota's bottom six—which will be especially important over the next two cash-strapped years until the Parise and Suter buy-outs run their course. Like the others, his ceiling for fantasy purposes likely will never be much higher than 45-50 points, and that would be in a best-case scenario. But it is still encouraging for Minnesota fans to see yet another of their long-shot prospects step up like this.

Second in rookie scoring with 21 points in 27 games is Linus Karlsson (VAN), who is tied with William Eklund (SJS), though the Sharks prospect has played two more games than his Canucks counterpart. Vancouver management must be thrilled with Karlsson, 23, who continues to generate momentum after his slow multi-year climb up the Swedish leagues finally resulted in a Rookie of the Year SHL campaign in 2021-22 (46 points in 52 games).

Like the three Minnesota prospects referenced above, Karlsson is a utility-knife type who has a solid all-around skillset that has historically been pulled down by his lower-end skating. He likely will not become the top-six offensive driver that Andrei Kuzmenko has become for the Canucks. Middle-sixers with skill are key to providing the kind of depth teams need to separate from the pack, however, and Karlsson has become an intriguing asset for a Vancouver team that seems to be lacking a clear direction. If Canucks brass decide to tear things down and essentially rebuild around Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, Karlsson may see increased opportunity with the big club.

As a former seventh overall pick (2021), Eklund is the highest-pedigree player mentioned so far. His value in fantasy was at an all-time high when he stepped out of the draft and scored four points in his nine-game audition with the Sharks. He looked speedy, dynamic, and creative. But then San Jose made the wise decision to return him to his SHL club and his disappointment was obvious. Almost like Seth Jarvis' disappointing Draft+1 WHL campaign, where he underwhelmed and almost seemed bored at times, Eklund's second year in the SHL (14 points in 29 games) was fine but nothing special.

Then in 2022-23, Eklund was sent down to the Barracudas instead of breaking camp with the Sharks, and his value was in the basement (relatively speaking) after he opened the year with only four points in 12 games. This was a player who was ranked first overall on many boards in the public scouting industry heading into the draft, so questions were beginning to form in the minds of we ever-impatient fantasy managers. Maybe he was not the top-line talent he looked to be in his draft year.

Since mid-November, however, Eklund has been on a tear, scoring 17 points in his last 17 games alongside an equally dynamic-looking Thomas Bordeleau (16 points over that same stretch). The general take on Eklund heading into the draft was that his skills were above-average across the board but that he lacked a single defining, elite-level trait like Kent Johnson's outrageous hands, Matty Beniers' tremendous two-way ability, or Dylan Guenther's consistent snipes.

What we are seeing from Eklund in the AHL right now is that same across-the-board, high-end skillset he was known for in his draft year. I have not watched enough footage from either this year or the last couple to comment accurately on whether his various skills have reached new heights, but he is clearly still well on track as a dynamic, two-way offensive threat.

Here he accelerates quickly to the middle to bury a rebound top shelf:

William Eklund goal! pic.twitter.com/kcsZeaoDfH

— JD Young (Notable?) (@MyFryHole) December 10, 2022

And here are a couple recent examples of his creative, visionary playmaking. In the first clip, he shows great patience with the puck, reading the defence before making a Cole Perfetti-like cross-seam pass to Bordeleau at the doorstep. In the second, he tricks everyone including the goalie by tucking the puck in front as he whips around the back of the net.

​​https://twitter.com/MyFryHole/status/1604319528799768576?s=20&t=h8g3x2CBmQDIowxUgieWSg

Andrew Agozzino off a brilliant feed from William Eklund pic.twitter.com/hoXxnh2IeC

— JD Young (Notable?) (@MyFryHole) December 17, 2022

Expect to see Eklund in a Sharks jersey for a few games at some point in the new year. He should stick with San Jose out of the gates in 2023-24 and seems poised to become an impact forward right off the hop. Bordeleau may have a slightly lower ceiling offensively but appears to be in lockstep with his Swedish linemate. The Sharks are similar to the Canucks in terms of lacking direction on a proper rebuild, so this dynamic duo with the Barracudas will have to step up in a big way for San Jose to remain competitive.

Sorting by points per game instead of totals, two Columbus prospects rise to the top of the AHL rookie scoring ranks: Kirill Marchenko (19 points in 16 games) and David Jiricek (20 in 19) have made a definitive statement with their brief minors stints. Marchenko of course has already been called up to the Blue Jackets, where he has four points (all goals) in ten games alongside Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Jack Roslovic, and Gustav Nyquist at both even strength and on the power play.

My impression of Marchenko as a skilled, two-way player has its foundation in an excellent article by Dobber Prospects writer Kevin Wong two years ago. Wong noted that Marchenko was consistent offensively but perhaps lacked certain line-driving qualities that star-level players possess; he also pointed to his consistency on the backcheck and to defensive play in general as habits that separated him from one-dimensional prospects like Eeli Tolvanen and Nail Yakupov—both who seem to have indeed flamed out of the NHL already.

Marchenko's incredible run in the AHL suggests that all his KHL seasoning (3 years) has prepared him to step into the NHL and contribute right away, both as a two-way middle sixer and potentially a top-line producer.

His teammate, Jiricek, is miles ahead of any other drafted prospect outside the NHL in terms of PNHLe right now. Here are the top five on the Rank Kings app.

He gets that massive equivalency score on the strength of posting 20 points in 19 AHL games so far in his Draft+1 season. As a defenceman.

At this point, the Jiricek vs. Nemec debate has become moot. Nothing against Nemec but the concern there for fantasy in particular was always that his skillset suggested a safe, decently high floor but more of a modest offensive ceiling. Nemec has 11 points in 24 games for Utica (AHL) and by all accounts is developing fine—he just is not showing anything like Jiricek's dynamism at this point.

Jiricek forces opposing teams to respect his big slapper from the point, which was one of his hallmark skills heading into the draft.

David Jiříček (#CBJ) with a blast from the point for his fifth goal of the season.

He now leads all AHL rookie defensemen in scoring with 20 points (5G, 15A) in 19 games.

pic.twitter.com/UH1xtL7Mxe

— Czech Prospects (@CZprospects) December 23, 2022

But he also continues to develop his deceptive handling and offensive awareness, particularly on the powerplay, to distribute to more advantageously situated teammates.

Columbus 6th overall pick David Jiricek with 3 primary assists today, all on the PP with Cleveland (AHL). The rookie defenseman has 16 points in 16 AHL games. @DavidJiricek @ehshockey @monstershockey @BlueJacketsNHL pic.twitter.com/0Fv4n84uZN

— Allan Walsh (@walsha) December 17, 2022

Jiricek's opportunity with Columbus remains an open question, with Zach Werenski in particular ensconced on the top powerplay, Adam Boqvist and Jake Bean waiting in the wings, and fellow 2022 draft pick Denton Mateychuk also continuing to develop well in the WHL. But we should not lower our estimation of him simply based on opportunity; bet on talent. Opportunity can change in the blink of an eye.

Much lower down in the PNHLe rankings, but doing very well in the AHL since they were demoted, are Marco Rossi (MIN) and Quinton Byfield (LAK). Absolutely nothing has changed with either of their projections, but I have sensed a bit of panic about them in the fantasy stratosphere since they failed to stick in the NHL.

Bit surprising that players as talented as Marco Rossi and Quinton Byfield find themselves in the AHL right now, ~2 yrs after being drafted. But if they're not going to get the minutes and opportunity to thrive in the NHL, the AHL, at this stage, is probably better for dev. pic.twitter.com/QQQRdhQ403

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) December 22, 2022

Rossi scored one point in 16 NHL games and sat for an additional five games as a healthy scratch; he now has 11 points in 11 games for Iowa (AHL) and is clearly acclimating well to the pro game. With 50 NHL games under his belt heading into 2022-23, Byfield looked like he might be up with the Kings for good this year. But then he had three points in eight games, got injured, and was sent down to the AHL when he returned to action; he now has 15 points in 16 games for the Reign.

To reiterate: both of these guys remain elite-level fantasy assets. There will likely be a wait time before we see their true NHL upside given that they are both exceptionally sized—Rossi on the smaller end and Byfield on the larger. Consider the following clips a reassuring pat on the back if you are lucky enough to own one or both of these prospects and have been growing nervous with them not yet sticking full time in the NHL.

In both of the following powerplay sequences, Rossi is set up at the far-side half wall. Imagine him making slick little passes into dangerous areas with Kirill Kaprizov and Calen Addison manning the point and opposing half wall. That's going to be a…wild…powerplay unit.

Beckman tying it up 👊

🚨: Adam Beckman
🍎: Marco Rossi, Joe Hicketts#10WAGROWN | #RFDvsIA pic.twitter.com/gzoZzzUaW5

— Iowa Wild (@IAWild) December 14, 2022

beautiful passing gives Beckman his 8th of the szn!

🚨: Adam Beckman
🍎: Marco Rossi, Joe Hicketts#10WAGROWN | #MBvsIA pic.twitter.com/yAdp2XKDCQ

— Iowa Wild (@IAWild) December 22, 2022

This Byfield clip speaks for itself. Feel better now? Good.

Somebody needs to trade for Quinton Byfield and give him good NHL ice time
pic.twitter.com/a1i442UeLw

— Nathan "Grav" (@NathanGraviteh) December 23, 2022

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.