Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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Merry Christmas!

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1. Congratulations to Alex Ovechkin on passing Gordie Howe for #2 on the all-time goals list. He needs only 93 more goals to catch Wayne Gretzky for the all-time lead. Ovechkin has 22 goals in 36 games, so let’s assume he scores 20 more goals this season for another 40+ goal season. That would leave him with just over 70 goals remaining. If he were to score at least 35 more goals over the next two seasons, he could break the record near the end of the 2024-2025 season.

I think I mentioned this earlier, but a couple years ago, I didn’t think it would be possible for Ovechkin to pass Gretzky. Not with him in his mid-30s and valuable games lost due to COVID. Age will catch up to Ovechkin one day, but the fact that he hasn’t shown any signs of aging (beyond the gray hair) makes me think that the record is now within reach.

2. With the NHL season on a three-day break until Tuesday, I’m going to use this opportunity to take you through some stats on Frozen Tools and the league leaders in those categories. Think of it as kind of like a midterm award show. I won’t restate the stats you hear about or look up all the time like goals and points. This is about more of the unconventional stats that you don’t notice as often. Or to take you on a journey through Frozen Tools, if you haven't spent much time there. Please follow the link for those highlights… (dec24)

3. Aleksander Barkov has now missed nearly 30% of the team’s games this season. This team, and us fantasy owners, really need him to be healthy so let’s hope he really is ready to go coming out of the holiday break. Barkov suffered a lower-body injury following his return from pneumonia.

On the good news front, Anton Lundell returned to the lineup after missing three weeks with an illness and an upper-body injury. These illnesses are really making life hard for a lot of teams across the league. (dec22)

4. As of last Wednesday, there were three names we’d expect among the top five defencemen in points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5: Erik Karlsson with 1.91 in first place, Roman Josi at 1.83 in second, and Adam Fox managing 1.52 in fourth (Cale Makar is down a little ways at 1.41 in seventh place, for those wondering.)  It is the other two names worth mentioning: Brady Skjei in third at 1.67 and Justin Faulk in fifth at 1.46. 

Karlsson obviously has many fewer games played than the rest of the list but his production in the early portions of this year make this standing make sense. Josi and Fox are two of the most talented blue liners in the league, so that seems normal. But Skjei and Faulk? The latter did go on a heater earlier this season, but it wouldn’t have crossed my mind to be enough to be where he is. And Skjei? Carolina has struggled to score at 5-on-5 this season, particularly the last month or so. It would not have dawned on me that he’d trail only Karlsson and Josi in this regard.

Skjei has 44 even-strength points in those 85 games, which speaks to the upside he could have if he ever ran a power play. He has settled in nicely in Carolina with the rest of that stout blue line. (dec23)

5. The Panthers have two defencemen in the top-10 in points/60 at 5-on-5 and neither of them are Aaron Ebklad. Blueliners Gustav Forsling (1.43) and Brandon Montour (1.39) are sandwiching Cale Makar, which speaks to the fantasy goodness on the blue line here. When Radko Gudas is healthy, there are likely four players on this blue line worth rostering in banger leagues, and three in leagues without hits.

At this point, it’s important to bring up the fact that Forsling was acquired through waivers from Carolina. Since arriving in Florida for the start of the Bubble Season in 2021, Forsling has managed 76 points in 147 games, or pacing for 42 points every 82 games. The Panthers are also out-scoring the opposition by the third-largest margin as he plays an important role at both ends of the ice, but particularly in the offensive zone.

Montour, meanwhile, is pacing for 44 points every 82 games in his Florida career thus far. He has had more run on the top power-play unit, and that matters, but he’s also been very capable when he’s been handed the role. That is meaningful and gives them a backup plan should Ekblad be injured (Montour’s even shared the job when he’s healthy). The huge minutes he’s been playing have helped juice up those peripherals as well, so he’s really helping fantasy owners across the board.  (dec23)

6. To no one’s surprise, the leader in overall save percentage in the last calendar year (at time of writing last Wednesday) was Igor Shesterkin at .927. Even with a downturn at the start of this season, his 2021-22 campaign was absurd. Ilya Sorokin was technically in second place due to games played with a .925 but Boston’s Linus Ullmark also had the same mark. For a guy that was left to walk by Buffalo, he’s largely been very good for the Bruins.

Playing for a great team no doubt is helping Ullmark here, but he’s really separated himself from Jeremy Swayman and he’s now started five of the last seven games. If Ullmark can get a 70/30 split, or better, for the rest of the season, playing behind this Bruins roster? The top fantasy goalie may be here.  (dec23)

7. It’s funny how fortunes change for goalies. Ville Husso had an .893 save percentage across 17 appearances in the bubble season and has turned into one of the top goalies in hockey over the last two years. With the poor performance from Alex Nedeljkovic wearing the Winged Wheel, Husso is the reason Detroit is anywhere near a playoff spot. He should continue as the number-1 starter, even if some of his fantasy numbers don’t look great due to the team in front of him.  (dec23)

8. Though not a perfect, or great, metric, Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) isn’t a bad way to tell us how a goalie has performed relative to the league average. Well, among the 38 goalies with at least 2000 minutes in all situations over the last year, Anton Forsberg was tied for fifth in GSAA/60 (this past week) with Semyon Varlamov, having nearly 800 more minutes played than Varlamov. Just behind Forsberg are Jake Oettinger and Connor Hellebuyck.

A lot of the great Forsberg performances came in the second half of last year and not the first half of this year, but he hasn’t been bad for the Senators, and far from the reason the team is not winning a lot of games. He has two more years left on his deal so it’s worth wondering if the team has the goalie for the near-term as they continue to search for a long-term solution. (dec23)

9. When Tim Stutzle went hard into the boards last week, both Ottawa fans and fantasy owners were sent into a panic about what had the appearance of a possible long-term injury. Those same fans and fantasy owners got some extremely good news on Thursday, as he was back in his usual spot on the top line with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux.

Stutzle’s last 82 regular season games have seen him post 29 goals and 72 points as he starts to scratch the surface of his upside. As the team around him keeps growing, so will he, and I don’t wonder if we see 90-point seasons from him in the very near future.  (dec23)

10. Still with the Sens, they're trying to give the roster some stability on the back end by re-signing Artem Zub to a four-year extension at $ 4.6 million. He is not a big producer with 40 points in 142 games but fantasy owners in banger leagues are well aware of his peripheral prowess: 121 blocks and 171 hits every 82 games in his NHL career. In real life, he provides good defence for them, so this seems like a fine deal for both the team and player. Cap league owners may have a decision to make with his price tag getting a big steeper. (dec22)

11. The leader in points per minute in all situations over the last year at time of writing last week? Not Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, not Nikita Kucherov, and not Auston Matthews. It was new Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk, who was traded from Calgary in the offseason. His 4.56 points/60 minutes outpaced Kucherov (4.39) and McDavid (4.42) ever so slightly. He is off to a fantastic start to his Panthers career with 40 points in 32 games. He has truly made his mark as one of the top wingers in the entire league and if Florida should make a playoff push in the final 40-some games of their season, Tkachuk should absolutely be in the Hart Trophy conversation.

One thing to note here: Tkachuk’s hit totals have taken a dive. He has just 22 in 32 games this year, having averaged 1.63 per game over the prior two seasons. The 25-year-old had a 12-game stretch last year from early December to early January that had 21 hits alone. Tkachuk’s fantasy owners probably aren’t too concerned about it, but it is something to keep in mind if he does hit a real bad cold streak production-wise. (dec22)

12. On a related note, tied for fifth in points across the league in the last calendar year was Kirill Kaprizov with 114 (Mitch Marner had the same number in one fewer game played). That is one less than Leon Draisaitl, for comparison’s sake (in two fewer games played). I remember the consternation around his expensive contract extension following his rookie season and I would say that he’s made a lot of those doubts disappear.

One of the more impressive feats Kaprizov is giving us is the constant improvement: his goals, points, and shots per game have increased every season he’s been in the league. He has done this with guys like Ryan Hartman, Sam Steel, and Frederick Gaudreau as his centers. I am a fan of Hartman, but Kaprizov turned him into a 34-goal scorer a year ago. That speaks to just how much offensive talent the winger has. (dec22)

13. We should also talk about goal scoring. Over the last year, the leader in goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 is Matthews. Also in the top-5 is the Buffalo pair of Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson. In fifth place, we have David Pastrnak. The guy sandwiched by those four players? He wouldn’t be the headliner if it weren’t for a reason.

Ross Colton is one of the guys I was hoping would be moved up the lineup for the Bolts. It ended up being Brandon Hagel and he’s performed admirably, but I really thought Colton could be an impact player in their top-6. Regardless, he has as many 5-on-5 goals in this stretch (23) as Andrei Svechnikov and Kyle Connor. That is in over 300-400 fewer minutes played than the two of them, respectively. It is quite the run he’s on.

Colton is on pace to push for another 20-goal season (over 82 games) despite averaging under 12 minutes a night. He is an RFA at the end of the year, a year away from UFA, and the team may not have the space to re-sign him. I wonder what he could do with a real shot in a good top-6 somewhere. (dec22)

14. Every few years, Vincent Trocheck seems to go off for a near-point-per-game season. Last year was another of his more pedestrian 50-point seasons. This year he’s only at the 0.8 point-per-game mark (at time of writing), but his underlying numbers show that he has actually been unlucky in spite of that rate. His on-ice shooting percentage is under seven percent, even though linemate Chris Kreider is shooting 15% (still a full five percent lower than last year’s 20% mark). If they can find a better third-wheel on that line than Jimmy Vesey, we could see a hot second half from both Trocheck and Kreider. (dec21)

15. The Columbus Blue Jackets saw a slew of defensemen injured roughly a month ago. All of Zach Werenski, Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and Jake Bean have missed weeks for the Jackets. The injury problems just keep mounting, though, as Boone Jenner will be out for four weeks due to thumb surgery.

After a slow start that saw Jenner post just one goal and four points in 10 October games, he had reeled off 10 goals and 18 points (six on the power play) in his last 20 games, averaging over three shots per matchup. Add in lots of hits and faceoff wins, and Jenner was having himself a very fine multi-cat season. Injuries have plagued him for years now but at least this isn’t a recurrence of his back problems. (dec20)

16. Stuart Skinner has signed a three-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers: three years at $2.6 million. Skinner has been very good over the last couple season for the Oilers, posting a save percentage of .914 in his first 32 appearances (at time of writing). Evolving Hockey had him at 11.9 Goals Saved Above expected in that span or saving roughly 0.37 GSAx per appearance. For a reference on how good that is, Linus Ullmark was at 0.21, Connor Hellebuyck at 0.34, and Ville Husso at 0.38. It is not a sufficient sample to make sweeping declarations, but it is a very good start to his NHL career.

Of course, this isn’t good news for Jack Campbell or his fantasy owners. He has been pretty bad for a calendar year now and his backup has just received a multi-year extension. Unless Skinner completely falls on his face, Campbell has lost any hope of splitting starts. This could be a 75-25 share in favour of the young Oilers netminder going forward. (dec20)

17. Toronto looked to be a nice landing spot for Denis Malgin, but he wasn’t able to gel with the top stars. Dobber touched on this in his Ramblings yesterday and it’s something I agree with; Malgin just hasn’t been given an extended look in the top-6, like Sam Steel has in Minnesota. We will see what happens in Colorado. (dec20)

18. Last week in my Thursday Ramblings, there was a discussion on market share. The reason for doing this is to try and find undervalued players in bad situations, on bad teams, or maybe enduring some bad luck. That last Ramblings discussed market share and shot attempts at all strengths. This one will be market share and expected goals at 5-on-5 among forwards with at least 200 minutes played this season. We are going to look at forwards that have high market shares and what it can tell us about their potential (or current) production. Please follow the link for more… (dec20)

19. Calen Addison had six points in the first four games, but as impressive as he’s looked – bottom line is that he’s only tallied 10 points in his last 28. I suspect it’s only a matter of time before Jared Spurgeon starts taking on that top PP job. Spurgeon has eight points in his last 13 games. His PP time is down to a third of what it was last year, from about three minutes to one minute per game average. But that average is moving up, albeit slowly, over the last 10 games, so you see where the trend is heading. (dec19)

20. Pyotr Kochetkov continues to make a case to stay in the NHL. He’s still exempt from waivers (someone had mistakenly reported that he was placed on waivers and cleared them early this season but that is not true) and will remain exempt for about another 40 games. When Frederik Andersen returns from injury, I tend to think that Kochetkov will play in the AHL to get into game action. But what will Carolina do next summer? Keep in mind, Kochetkov is only 23 years old and he has only played 18 NHL games in his entire career. Is it smart to saddle such a player with your starting job? You can try it, and maybe it will work. Or maybe you end up Carter Hart-ing him. I suspect that if Andersen will re-sign for a short-term contract, they go that route and let Kochetkov back him up and play about 40 games next year. (dec19)

21. I have this feeling that the Flames are going to have a big second half. Call it a hunch. This team had a lot of key players come and go, and you have to think that it takes 20 or 30 games to get the Darryl Sutter system all figured out. I bought low on Noah Hanifin 10 games into the season when he had just a single point. And now I will be inquiring about other Flames such as Jonathan Huberdeau (who played his 700^th career NHL game Sunday) and Nazem Kadri. (dec19)

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