Ryan Brudner (@fantasycheddar) – Goalies are a special type of player in fantasy hockey. They are rarely consistent, hard to predict, and their perceived values are always in flux. Many have opted toward a #ZeroG (shout out to Nate at Apples & Ginos) strategy due to the unpredictability of goalies. What further muddies the water is the fact that goalie rankings for H2H categories leagues are broken.

These do not reflect the true value each goalie has had in those weekly leagues. The main issue is that the ranking system treats cumulative SV% and GAA each as a single ranked statistic. If a goalie plays one game and lets in no goals, this goalie is now ranked first in both of those cats and will likely find himself in Yahoo's top 15 for the season while providing zero value in all but one fantasy week.

The solution to this problem utilizes some new constructs to represent a goaltender's value week-in week-out in your H2H cats leagues: Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks. These are heavily inspired by the valuable Quality Start and Really Bad Start statistics available on Frozen Tools.

Fantasy Hockey in H2H Category leagues revolves around the fantasy week. It doesn’t matter what your goalie’s cumulative stats are; If your goalie doesn’t perform for you (or doesn’t get any starts) in a span of 7 days, you're going to lose some cats.

I will now dive in to these new constructs before taking a look at how they shed light on the current values of fantasy goalies:

Quality Weeks (QW) – A goalie has had a Quality Week if he has performed above the average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (W, GAA, SV%). He also had to have made more than 12 saves as to exclude a backup coming in for just a period.

If your goalie has done this, he has provided you value and has given you a chance to win most of your goalie categories.

Really Bad Weeks (RBW) – A goalie has had a Really Bad Week if he has ranked below the top 35 goalies in both GAA and SV%, has not gotten a shutout, and has not squeaked by with an abundance of Wins (top 5).

If your goalie has done this, he has likely ruined your opportunity to win most of your goalie categories. It would have been better to not have your goalie on your team (or starting) this week.

Star Weeks (SW) – A goalie has had a Star Week if he has ranked top 15 in all of: Wins, SV%, GAA, for the week. OR if your goalie has had a quality week and has also gotten a shutout (This assumes SO is a counted category).

This means that your goalie has made it very tough for you to lose most of your goalie categories. They have secured some category wins for you this week.

I would like to point out that these are NEW constructs and will improve with some alterations after diving into the data and getting some feedback. Having said that, let's take a look at what these constructs can say about the goalie landscape this year.

We can derive a goalie's season long value in these constructs using z-scores in each of them. Using goalie data from Frozen Tools, here's what the top 30 looks like:

Name	Rank	Value	V/Wk	QW	QW%	RBW	RBW%	SW	SW%	Total Weeks
LINUS ULLMARK	1	7.53	6.51	11	100.00%	0	0.00%	7	63.60%	11
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV	2	4.62	3.95	10	90.90%	1	9.10%	4	36.40%	11
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK	3	4.44	3.71	8	72.70%	1	9.10%	5	45.50%	11
LOGAN THOMPSON	4	3.63	2.97	9	81.80%	0	0.00%	2	18.20%	11
IGOR SHESTERKIN	5	3.41	2.76	7	63.60%	1	9.10%	4	36.40%	11
JAKE OETTINGER	6	3.39	3.25	7	70.00%	2	20.00%	5	50.00%	10
TRISTAN JARRY	7	3.14	2.69	8	72.70%	3	27.30%	5	45.50%	11
PYOTR KOCHETKOV	8	3.01	4.69	6	85.70%	1	14.30%	4	57.10%	7
ILYA SAMSONOV	8	3.01	3.89	6	75.00%	1	12.50%	4	50.00%	8
JEREMY SWAYMAN	10	2.39	2.17	6	60.00%	1	10.00%	3	30.00%	10
VITEK VANECEK	11	2.36	2.21	6	60.00%	2	20.00%	4	40.00%	10
DARCY KUEMPER	12	2.18	2.41	7	77.80%	1	11.10%	2	22.20%	9
ILYA SOROKIN	13	2.09	1.78	7	63.60%	4	36.40%	5	45.50%	11
AKIRA SCHMID	14	1.99	4.02	5	83.30%	1	16.70%	3	50.00%	6
MATT MURRAY	14	1.99	3.2	5	71.40%	1	14.30%	3	42.90%	7
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY	16	1.9	1.59	8	72.70%	3	27.30%	3	27.30%	11
SAM MONTEMBEAULT	17	1.74	1.6	6	60.00%	2	20.00%	3	30.00%	10
SPENCER KNIGHT	18	1.53	1.44	7	70.00%	2	20.00%	2	20.00%	10
VILLE HUSSO	19	1.5	1.19	7	63.60%	3	27.30%	3	27.30%	11
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY	19	1.5	1.19	7	63.60%	3	27.30%	3	27.30%	11
JACOB MARKSTROM	21	0.94	0.56	7	63.60%	1	9.10%	0	0.00%	11
SEMYON VARLAMOV	22	0.91	1.12	7	77.80%	2	22.20%	1	11.10%	9
JUUSE SAROS	22	0.91	0.6	7	63.60%	2	18.20%	1	9.10%	11
CARTER HART	24	0.88	0.64	7	63.60%	3	27.30%	2	18.20%	11
CRAIG ANDERSON	25	0.72	0.56	5	50.00%	2	20.00%	2	20.00%	10
CAM TALBOT	26	0.51	0.92	6	75.00%	2	25.00%	1	12.50%	8
ANTTI RAANTA	26	0.51	0.4	6	60.00%	2	20.00%	1	10.00%	10
PAVEL FRANCOUZ	28	0.48	0.68	6	66.70%	3	33.30%	2	22.20%	9

Yes, Linus Ullmark has been absolutely stellar, providing a quality week 100% of the time and having 7 Star Weeks as well. Quite the #ZeroG monster this year.

Aside from giving Ullmark the attention he deserves, I would like to use this time to point out where these constructs truly differ from the current standard Yahoo rankings:

Logan Thompson has been the fourth best goalie this season according to these constructs, much better than his current ranking of 9 in Yahoo. He has had ZERO Really Bad Weeks and has had a quality week in nine of the 11 fantasy weeks (82%). His 2 Star Weeks aren't amazing, but he has been CONSISTENT week-in week-out. That is rare in a fantasy hockey goaltender.

The guys at KK pointed out that Thompson has a very modest Quality Start percentage at 50%. I think this is the perfect example showing why Quality Weeks is a better construct for H2H leagues. If we dissect one of Thompson's Quality weeks (let's look at week 2), he started two games, one of which was a quality start (L-37/40 saves), one of which was not (L-22/25 saves) – this puts his QS% at 50%. For this week, he was still above the goalie average that week in
GAA and SV%, thus providing value in those categories. So even though his overall stats were modest, his QS% was modest, and he didn't jump off the page at all, he still provided you value in two goalie categories.

Give me the consistent goalie over the inconsistent flashy goalie.

Speaking of inconsistent, flashy goalies, let's talk about Ilya Sorokin. He is the 5^th best goalie according to Yahoo. His cumulative stats are impressive (11W, 2.37, .925, 3 SO) as are his real-life stats (15.35 GSAA), but we are looking for value in H2H cats leagues, not rotisserie leagues, and not real life.

He drops down to 13^th using these constructs. This is due to his inconsistency. Some weeks he is absolutely lights out (45% SW), but some weeks he would be better off on your bench (36% RBW). Those 4 Really Bad Weeks are actually the worst of the top 30 goalies. Now if you can bench Sorokin for those bad weeks and capitalize on his great play, you might have a top 5 fantasy goalie, but this is just impossible (@ me if you can see the future please).

We could discuss each goalie here, but I think that these two goalies are great representations on why these constructs help shed light on the true value of goalies in H2H cats leagues.

We can also look at the value from these constructs and see which goalies have provided the most value per week they've played. Some of these goalies haven't provided starts in every week (and may not provide starts in future weeks), but when they've been healthy and playing, or given the opportunity to fill in for an injured starter, they've been extremely valuable fantasy hockey streams/holds.

Name	Rank	Value	V/Wk	QW	QW%	RBW	RBW%	SW	SW%	Total Weeks
LINUS ULLMARK	1	7.53	6.51	11	100.00%	0	0.00%	7	63.60%	11
PYOTR KOCHETKOV	8	3.01	4.69	6	85.70%	1	14.30%	4	57.10%	7
AKIRA SCHMID	14	1.99	4.02	5	83.30%	1	16.70%	3	50.00%	6
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV	2	4.62	3.95	10	90.90%	1	9.10%	4	36.40%	11
ILYA SAMSONOV	8	3.01	3.89	6	75.00%	1	12.50%	4	50.00%	8
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK	3	4.44	3.71	8	72.70%	1	9.10%	5	45.50%	11
JAKE OETTINGER	6	3.39	3.25	7	70.00%	2	20.00%	5	50.00%	10
MATT MURRAY	14	1.99	3.2	5	71.40%	1	14.30%	3	42.90%	7

The area that these rankings and Yahoo's rankings agree on is the bottom of the barrel.  Unfortunately, these goalies have provided negative value to your team. If you have suffered from these > 50% RBWs, you have my sympathies.

Name	Rank	Value	V/Wk	QW	QW%	RBW	RBW%	SW	SW%	Total Weeks
ELVIS MERZLIKINS	75	-4.48	-5.72	0	0.00%	5	71.40%	0	0.00%	7
JOHN GIBSON	74	-4.07	-4.08	1	10.00%	5	50.00%	0	0.00%	10
KAAPO KAHKONEN	73	-3.7	-3.81	2	22.20%	6	66.70%	1	11.10%	9
CAL PETERSEN	72	-3.67	-4.12	2	25.00%	5	62.50%	0	0.00%	8
ANTHONY STOLARZ	70	-3.43	-3.72	1	11.10%	4	44.40%	0	0.00%	9
CONNOR INGRAM	70	-3.43	-4.29	1	14.30%	4	57.10%	0	0.00%	7
THATCHER DEMKO	69	-3.05	-3.37	2	25.00%	5	62.50%	1	12.50%	8
JACK CAMPBELL	66	-3.02	-3.23	2	22.20%	4	44.40%	0	0.00%	9
ALEX NEDELJKOVIC	66	-3.02	-3.67	2	28.60%	4	57.10%	0	0.00%	7
PHILIPP GRUBAUER	66	-3.02	-3.99	2	33.30%	4	66.70%	0	0.00%	6
PETR MRAZEK	65	-2.4	-2.67	2	25.00%	4	50.00%	1	12.50%	8
SPENCER MARTIN	64	-2.27	-2.12	4	40.00%	6	60.00%	2	20.00%	10
JONATHAN QUICK	63	-2.24	-2.16	4	40.00%	5	50.00%	1	10.00%	10

I do also want to point out some highly drafted Goalies that according to this model, have returned negative value to your fantasy teams this year (so far):

Name	ADP	Value	QW%	RBW%	SW%
Sergei Bobrovsky	60.3	-.33	44%	33%	22%
Jack Campbell	75.1	-3.02	22%	44%	0%
Jonathan Quick	95.2	-2.24	40%	50%	10%
Jordan Binnington	136.9	-.2	55%	45%	27%
James Reimer	183.9	-1.35	33%	33%	11%

If you've thought that any of the goalies above have been valuable, I'm sorry to break it to you, but unless you have only used them during their Quality Weeks, they've been a net negative to your team.

I hope you can find value in these constructs. The full rankings can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1URlVd2ryeYvdHGzoBzqrg2UY6-aNjcGH-_WbK9JmbAw/edit?usp=sharing

These are new constructs aimed to help show past value in H2H category leagues (that utilize W, SV%, GAA, SO). They could be altered to better fit leagues that use a different combination of categories, but this is a good start.

I am also not projecting future goalie performances here, this is just a representation of how goalies have done so far (through 11 weeks).

I would love to hear some feedback and answer any questions you may have, hit me up on Twitter @fantasycheddar

• Ryan Brudner from Top Cheddar Fantasy